Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion

[The Mikado]

The Green Party is definitely going to go through some purges of it’s membership. For the best, I suppose, but it’s disappointing that Howie Hawkins is going to get astronomically fewer votes from all this, perhaps even a worse showing than 2008.

FWIW, there's no way in hell the Greens drop to below the 0.12% they got in 2008.

Jill Stein 2012's 0.36% is a good over-under. I think I'd take the over, but not by much.

[The Mikado]

Wonder if Dario Hunters gonna get ballot access anywhere and how much percent of the vote he will get will any atlas users endorse him?

If he really wants to, there's a handful of states that are super-easy to get ballot access in. (Looking at you, Colorado)

[The Mikado]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1283500702795358209

With this ruling, it's very possible that Biden and Trump are the only ones on the ballot in PA, a fairly high population state that could have effects on third party totals statewide.

I'd still bet on the Libertarians being able to get 5,000 signatures in PA. They're pretty dedicated when they want to be.

[The Mikado]

Today is the ballot deadline for Maine and Washington.

Maine requires 4,000 signatures which is fairly steep as far as the total population goes comparative to the rest of the state. At around 0.3% of the state population, it's 39/51 in terms of signatures required vs state population.

Washington requires 1,000 signatures which is actual 3/51 at around 0.012% of the state population.

Pretty much any campaign with a decent on the ground effort can make the Washington threshold, it'll be way more interesting to see who made the cut in Maine.

Do you think the Libertarians will make ballot access in Maine?

[The Mikado]

So do we know how ME and WA turned out? 

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1288558865735249925

So I think this tweet is overconfident on the likely implications of this decision not to lower ballot access requirements in PA. I think that 5,000 signatures by Monday (given they've already been trying for a while) is definitely possible for the Libertarians at least. Maybe the Greens too? But the Libertarians very likely. If they're good at anything, it's working their asses off for ballot access.

We'll see on Monday, but my current guess given PA's ballot access rules aren't going to be softened is that Trump, Biden, and Jorgensen are on the ballot in PA but no one else.

[The Mikado]

Libertarians' Maine petition successful. BAN:

The Maine petition to get Jo Jorgensen on the ballot as the Libertarian nominee for president has enough signatures, according to the Secretary of State. This makes it moderately likely that she will be on the ballot in all 51 jurisdictions that have electoral votes. Thanks to Bill Redpath for this news.

Are Alabama and Virginia the only tricky states left for JoJo? That's my impression.

[The Mikado]

Colorado ballot access, per BAN:

The seven qualified parties are: Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, Green, Constitution, Unity, and Approval Voting.

The candidates who qualified by paying the fee, in alphabetical order, are: Brian Carroll (American Solidarity), Mark Charles (independent), Phil Collins (Prohibition), Rocky De La Fuente (Alliance), Dario Hunter (Progressive), Princess Jacob-Fambro (independent), Alyson Kennedy (Socialist Workers), Joseph Kishore (Socialist Equality), Kyle Kopitke (Independent American), Gloria La Riva (Socialism & Liberation), Joe McHugh (independent), Brock Pierce (independent), and Kanye West (independent).

Who the heck are the Unity or Approval Voting parties?

Unity seems centristy, Approval Voting is single issue to wnact approval voting (candidate most people vote "approve" for gets elected, aka more confusing ranked choice)

Approval voting just on its face seems dumb as hell to me. RCV at least makes sense. I know political scientists seem to love approval voting, but...

It's basically:

8 people in a group. Where are we going for lunch? Raise your hand for every option that's acceptable to you.

7 hands raised for pizza
6 hands raised for Chinese
6 hands raised for sub sandwiches
5 hands raised for burgers

Pizza it is. Most broadly acceptable choice.

It just...doesn't seem RIGHT for a political process, though.

[The Mikado]

So I know Kanye West didn't file in Georgia, but do we know who DID file in Georgia? Hawkins' website hasn't updated to deal with Georgia yet.

Is GA going to be just Trump/Biden/Jorgensen on the ballot?

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/Jorgensen4POTUS/status/1296253938858184706

Jorgensen files in Alabama, probably the hardest remaining state. At this point, she has to be favored for actually pulling off 50 state ballot access, which is a hell of an accomplishment in this environment.

Just Virginia and Rhode Island to go for the LP.

[The Mikado]

Can we talk a bit about how f**king astonishing it is that in this climate, with these high hurdles to gathering signatures, Jo Jorgensen, who no one has ever heard of, is very likely to achieve 50 state ballot access? It's really a minor miracle and a pretty impressive flex by the Libertarian Party. Respect, you crazy bastards.

[The Mikado]

I wish the Constitution Party would put its ballot access progress...anywhere...online.

[The Mikado]

So this is happening

Jimmy Dore is also a guest speaker.

Just replicating all the effort the Greens have to do for ballot access, candidate recruitment, etc. It's dumb either way, but they might as well just join the Greens if this is what they want.

OTOH it's gonna be hilarious in 2024 when the Greens keep complaining that this "People's Party" is spoiling their candidates and splitting the vote.

[The Mikado]

Jorgensen petition verified in Virginia. Only other petition is Kanye West which is being checked for accuracy.

I thought Hawkins also petitioned in VA?

[The Mikado]

If West misses VA, VA joins the surprisingly long list of states where Trump/Biden/Jorgensen will be the only names on the ballot.

[The Mikado]

It'd be a lot easier to create a "Libertarian Party is only 3rd party on the ballot" list if the Constitution and Alliance Parties were better at updating their info.

I'm gonna assume Kanye doesn't make Virginia for this first attempt, but VA may change here. Also assuming Kanye doesn't make Arizona or North Dakota because LOL no he won't. Leaving Kentucky as default L only for now, but that may change next week.

This is my rough draft for "States where the Libertarian Party will be only third party." VA, KY, and ND all have yet to be formally decided, so those are projections on my part.

NV, WI, and WY have the Constitution Party (and WI and WY both have other minor candidates) otherwise they'd be on this list, as neither Hawkins nor West is on any of those three.

Feel free to correct if the Constitution Party or some other outfit (the Alliance Party?) is on in some of those Plains states. I couldn't find anything.

[The Mikado]

Kanye West's petition certified in Virginia.

did they announce the rest of the ballot?

Only third party candidates for President to file in VA were Jorgensen and West, and both made the ballot.

[The Mikado]

Kanye West's petition certified in Virginia.

did they announce the rest of the ballot?

Only third party candidates for Presiddnt to file in VA were Jorgensen and West, and both made the ballot.

thanks where did you find this?  was there an official announcement posted? I can't find it.

[The Mikado]

Mississippi releases list of candidates who have filed. (Note: they haven't determined who made the ballot yet, these are just the people who have applied)

https://www.sos.ms.gov/content/documents/elections/2020%20Candidate%20Qualifying%20List.pdf

SEVEN minor candidates, along with Trump and Biden.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1302382772783403013

This isn't related to the Pres race, it's just the GOP effort to get all the Libertarian House candidates kicked off the ballot failing. Jorgensen and Hawkins were already definitely on the TX Presidential ballot.

[The Mikado]

Currently, it seems as if Hawkins/Walker will get on some 30-35 state ballots + DC and achieve write-in-status in 10 or so others. They only failed completely in a few states, such as SD.

Filing for write in status is absurdly easy almost everywhere if you actually try (the fact that Kanye West hasn't bothered to file for write in status anywhere he's not on the ballot indicates how little he cares about this campaign), and Hawkins is trying that. The only states he COULD miss write in access are the states which flat out don't allow write in voting.



So it'll be impossible to vote for Hawkins in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Louisiana (probably, pending him losing his ballot access soon), and Nevada, all states where he missed ballot access and don't have write in voting as a possibility.

[The Mikado]

Final* Howie Hawkins Ballot Access (assuming he gets kicked off in Louisiana as seems likely and as his site indicates)

[The Mikado]

In PA there is the write in option so keeping parties off the ballot is a waste of time.

Write-in doesn't result in the same number of votes as would be the case with them on the ballot though ...

Probably true since the number of votes for Stein was 1,457,226.
The number of write ins was 1,154,084, which is still pretty many, but less than what Stein got.
Not all states allow write ins.

edit: If Democrats want more votes they should end FPTP.

How are you ending FPTP for a singular office like President?

You could either do a two round top two runoff or IRV, neither of which are FPTP.

[The Mikado]

C-SPAN would make sense. It's usually open to the wilder side of politics.

So out of the 10 candidates invited, obviously Trump and Biden won't show, and I'd be surprised if Blankenship (who seems to not actually be seriously running) or West (who may have forgotten he's running for President?) show up. 6 candidates would be a very reasonable number.

[The Mikado]

Constitution Party: It Is Time to Vote Strategically and to Make Our Voice Heard

The Constitution Party was doomed no matter what (is there really any appetite for "to the right of Donald Trump?"), but picking an absolute buffoon like Blankenship who like a third of Constitution Party affiliates are too embarrassed to even put on their ballots was a huge strategic error that threatens the long term existence of the party.