Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion

[PSOL]

So for the few days after the election, you can kind of see what response (or not) was given by each party.

Libertarian prez nominee just emailed a thank you letter

Green Party is now focused on blasting the duopoly and focusing on showing off a win in the mayoralty in Sun Beach, CA

PSL is heading “back to business” condemning voter suppression and mobilizing ANSWER against Donald Trump.

ASP is celebrating but is also continuing to do outreach apparently

Still don’t know what the liberal electoral alliance pole is doing

[StateBoiler]

Still don’t know what the liberal electoral alliance pole is doing

They publish a podcast every Sunday, so one should come out tomorrow.

https://theallianceparty.podbean.com

[AltWorlder]

But what's Brock Pierce up to?

[PSOL]

Still don’t know what the liberal electoral alliance pole is doing

They publish a podcast every Sunday, so one should come out tomorrow.

https://theallianceparty.podbean.com

Oh, that is actually pretty unique of them

[StateBoiler]

Update:

Jorgensen 1,744,193 - 1.17% (+58,581, +.01%)
Hawkins 354,712 - 0.24% (+15,191, +.01%)

De La Fuente 69,956 - 0.047% (+6,444, +.003%)
La Riva 67,363 - 0.045% (+5,621, +.003%)
Kanye 64,456 - 0.043% (+1,433)
Blankenship 57,190 - 0.038% (+1,699, -.001%)
Pierce 43,608 - 0.029% (+277, -.001%)
Carroll 26,377 - 0.018% (+1,650, +.001%)

Best candidate after these is Alyson Kennedy of the Socialist Workers Party with 6,643 votes so far.

[StateBoiler]

Still don’t know what the liberal electoral alliance pole is doing

They publish a podcast every Sunday, so one should come out tomorrow.

https://theallianceparty.podbean.com

Oh, that is actually pretty unique of them

They put it up. Conversation with one of the party's 2 vice-chairs and its national political director.

[StateBoiler]

Write-in count at this point in time, way incomplete:

Carroll (American Solidarity) 4,111
Hawkins (Green) 1,382
Kanye West 479
Jade Simmons 393
La Riva (PSL) 317
Tom Hoefling 316

Everyone else under 200.

Jorgensen has crossed 1.75 million votes.

[StateBoiler]

Jorgensen may get 1.8 million votes today. She's at 1.17%.

Hawkins no real vote benchmark. He's in the 360k's, but is running just a shade under 0.25%.

De La Fuente looks like he'll finish 5th. He's crossed 75 thousand votes and 0.05%. He's presently 3400 votes ahead of La Riva, who is 6600 votes ahead of Kanye, who is 7300 votes ahead of Blankenship. La Riva may cross 0.05% when California is done counting.

64% of De La Fuente's vote count and 57% of La Riva's is from California.

[AltWorlder]

https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1326217062990176259
https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1326221283529531398

[StateBoiler]

End of Nov-11 update:

Jorgensen 1,799,663 - 1.18%
Hawkins 374,551 - 0.25% (rounding up, will probably cross as California continues counting)
Write-ins Unassigned 209,783 - 0.14%
De La Fuente 80,378 - 0.053%
La Riva 76,697 - 0.050% (is above the .05% mark, she passed her 2016 vote count today, her 2016 percentage was 0.054%, so in the end about the same in performance)
Kanye West 65,676 - 0.043%
Blankenship 58,353 - 0.038%
Pierce 44,163 - 0.029%
Carroll 27,521 - 0.018%

Top Write-ins:

Carroll 4,492
Hawkins 1,578
Kanye West 536
Jade Simmons 413
La Riva 331
Tom Hoefling 321

[PSOL]

End of Nov-11 update:

Jorgensen 1,799,663 - 1.18%
Hawkins 374,551 - 0.25% (rounding up, will probably cross as California continues counting)
Write-ins Unassigned 209,783 - 0.14%
De La Fuente 80,378 - 0.053%
La Riva 76,697 - 0.050% (is above the .05% mark, she passed her 2016 vote count today, her 2016 percentage was 0.054%, so in the end about the same in performance)
Kanye West 65,676 - 0.043%
Blankenship 58,353 - 0.038%
Pierce 44,163 - 0.029%
Carroll 27,521 - 0.018%

Top Write-ins:

Carroll 4,492
Hawkins 1,578
Kanye West 536
Jade Simmons 413
La Riva 331
Tom Hoefling 321

Damn, Jade Simmons ran a pretty tight ship in her election campaign.

These numbers, in hindsight, aren’t as bad for the PSL then what I originally thought with the increase in raw votes. Still, the write-in votes are incredibly pathetic.

Also for the next election, it is the utmost imperative to get more allies for the next liberal/centrist electoral pole

Does anyone want to make a 2024 thread? Will y’all wait till later. It’s not going to be very active initially till 2022/3, but it seems right to engage in the same speculation in the 2024 board as for the other candidates for the duopoly.

[StateBoiler]

This is per Richard Winger, qualified for ballot access for Libertarians, Greens, Constitution Party. There's the lawsuit pending in New York State for the Greens and Libertarians. There's one in Maine for the Libertarians.

Greens:

California, Colorado, Connecticut, D.C., Florida, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia

End of 2016 had ballot access in 21 states. After 2020, 14.

Constitution:

Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin, Wyoming

-he adds a clarifying statement that Idaho and Oregon don't consider themselves affiliated with the national party, although in Idaho this year Blankenship was their nominee

End of 2016, had ballot access in 13 states. After 2020, 13.

Libertarians:

Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming

End of 2016, had ballot access in 38 states. After 2020, 32.

[beaver2.0]

Interestingly, if you add the totals of the two Prohibition tickets in Arkansas they come in 4th place edging out Kanye and Hawkins.

[Hnv1]

So the Libertarian ticket has a floor of [1]%. Now they should start working on state level representation

[StateBoiler]

So the Libertarian ticket has a floor of [1]%. Now they should start working on state level representation

They elected 1 in Wyoming.

[StateBoiler]

Nov-16 Morning Update:

Jorgensen 1,829,887 - 1.19% (may reach 1.2%, currently 1 out of every 84 people in the country voted for her)
Hawkins 383,503 - 0.25% (next 1 or 2 California updates will reach .25%, currently rounding up)
Rocky 84,644 - 0.055% (67% of his total votes in California on the American Independent line)
La Riva 80,703 - 0.053% (60% of her total votes in California on the Peace & Freedom line)
Kanye 66,244 - 0.043%
Blankenship 59,307 - 0.039%
Pierce 44,898 - 0.029%
Carroll 28,518 - 0.019% (18% of his total votes are write-in and that has cleared 5,000)

[StateBoiler]

Any candidates not listed below in the tables were under 0.05%.

With results as they exist now, looking only at election results in states where Brian Carroll and the American Solidarity Party had ballot access, which was 8 states.

Biden 9.15 million 51.05%
Trump 8.40 million 46.86%
Jorgensen 206,606 1.15%
Hawkins 44,219 0.25% (no ballot access in LA, RI, WI)
Carroll 23,338 0.13%
Kanye 21,672 0.12% (no ballot access in IL, RI, WI)
Blankenship 14,657 0.08% (no ballot access in IL, RI)
La Riva 12,164 0.07% (no ballot access in MS, WI)

Looking only at election results in the 15 states plus D.C. where Brock Pierce has ballot access:

Trump 13.82 million 50.22%
Biden 13.09 million 47.54%
Jorgensen 328,058 1.19%
Hawkins 62,264 0.23% (no ballot access in AK, ID, KY, LA, OK, WY)
Kanye 55,354 0.20% (no ballot access in AK, DC, HI, NY, WY)
Pierce 44,856 0.16%
Blankenship 20,443 0.07% (no ballot access in DC, KY, MN, NY, OK, WY)

Looking only at election results in the 18 states where Don Blankenship has ballot access:

Trump 25.57 million 50.84%
Biden 23.84 million 47.41%
Jorgensen 518,261 1.03%
Hawkins 92,994 0.18% (no ballot access in AK, ID, LA, NV, WI)
Blankenship 59,307 0.12%
Kanye 45,591 0.09% (no ballot access in AK, FL, HI, MI, MO, NV, NJ, NC, WI)

Looking only at election results in the 14 states plus D.C. where Gloria La Riva has ballot access:

Biden 32.03 million 54.65%
Trump 25.39 million 43.32%
Jorgensen 634,720 1.08%
Hawkins 191,472 0.33% (no ballot access in LA, RI)
La Riva 80,364 0.14%
Rocky 75,530 0.13% (no ballot access in DC, IL, LA, NM, UT, WA)
Kanye 43,356 0.07% (no ballot access in CA, DC, IL, MN, NM, RI, WA)

Looking only at election results in the 15 states where Rocky De La Fuente has ballot access:

Biden 29.61 million 53.24%
Trump 24.97 million 44.90%
Jorgensen 565,210 1.02%
Hawkins 165,309 0.30% (no ballot access in AK, RI)
Rocky 84,625 0.15%
La Riva 63,391 0.11% (no ballot access in AK, ID, IA, ME, MI, SC)
Kanye 38,468 0.07% (no ballot access in AK, CA, FL, ME, MI, NJ, RI, SC)
Blankenship 31,102 0.06% (no ballot access in CA, ME, MN, RI, SC)

Looking only at election results in the 12 states where Kanye West has ballot access:

Trump 12.19 million votes 54.76%
Biden 9.55 million 42.90%
Jorgensen 287,067 1.29%
Kanye 65,610 0.29%
Hawkins 37,372 0.17% (no ballot access in ID, KY, LA, OK)
Blankenship 23,779 0.11% (no ballot access in KY, MN, OK)
Pierce 21,863 0.10% (no ballot access in TN)
Rocky 12,018 0.05% (no ballot access in KY, LA, MS, OK)

Looking only at election results in the 29 states plus D.C. where Howie Hawkins has ballot access:

Biden 58.34 million 52.35%
Trump 50.98 million 45.75%
Jorgensen 1,227,980 1.10%
Hawkins 381,622 0.34%
Rocky 81,928 0.07% (no ballot access in CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, MS, MO, NM, NY, NC, OH, OR, TX, UT, WA, WV)
La Riva 78,699 0.07% (no ballot access in CT, DE, HI, IA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MS, MO, NY, NC, OH, OR, SC, TX, WV)

[StateBoiler]

Number of write-ins update.

Carroll 5088
Hawkins 1966
Kanye West 841
Bernie Sanders 619
Jade Simmons 451
La Riva 362
Tom Hoefling 325

That's everyone over 200.

[PSOL]

Number of write-ins update.

Carroll 5088
Hawkins 1966
Kanye West 841
Bernie Sanders 619
Jade Simmons 451
La Riva 362
Tom Hoefling 325

That's everyone over 200.

Well, that’s 619 and counting votes that could have gone to Hawkins or La Riva.

Anyway, the arrangement between the PFP and PSL provided the best results by raw votes the party had since 1972, excluding the celebrity endorsement of Ralph Nader, when it was apart of the citizens party. Unless a celebrity or figure with their own (temporary) movement runs, there’s no reason to break the relationship with the PSL.

I think that if Hawkins runs again for president, under the circumstance that he manages to get even more support and—crazily enough—gets a deal to represent the PSL on their ticket, the PFP nomination is his. I’m assuming that is why Jill Stein is featuring on a Gravel Institute podcast with major figures of the PSL anyway; to build a working relationship. Maybe even get more dissatisfied social democrats and socialists from Nina Turner.
Let’s be honest here, Kanye West has a real good shot for 3rd/4th place in 2024. This country does love its celebrities. He’s doing better in the write-ins then similarly placed in states Rocky DLF. Still, it’s yet to be seen if this jolts Kanye West to start campaigning and getting on the ballot in states earlier.
Oddities in this election is the ASP overperforming the PSL in Illinois. In a state with such diversity and class conflict, the little amount of disaffected leftists is bizarre. On the flipside, the fact that the SWP is basically only seriously competitive in Kentucky for the far-left vote is also bizarre. I guess their is more ageing ex-Trots in Kentucky than anywhere else.
Can someone please tell me exactly what Jade Simmons actually believes in? I’m pretty impressed by her drive to get on so many states as basically a one-woman band (heh).

[The Mikado]

So IMO it seems the best possible performance for a third party would be a celebrity running on the Libertarian Party, combining the Libertarian Party's ruthless efficiency with ballot access and logistics with the publicity a celebrity candidate can get.

IMO the absolute pinnacle would be Mark Cuban, a libertarian-minded billionaire who can self fund and has been on TV for years.

Do you all agree that that'd be the best possible set up for a third party candidate to actually break through to a mainstream audience?

IMO too many celebrity/self funder candidates envision an Independent run, which is basically adding huge logistical hurdles for yourself, when using fame and money to subvert and capture the Libertarian Party would be way more cost effective.

[StateBoiler]

I think that if Hawkins runs again for president, under the circumstance that he manages to get even more support and—crazily enough—gets a deal to represent the PSL on their ticket, the PFP nomination is his. I’m assuming that is why Jill Stein is featuring on a Gravel Institute podcast with major figures of the PSL anyway; to build a working relationship. Maybe even get more dissatisfied social democrats and socialists from Nina Turner.

Feel that'd be a pretty hard move left for the Green Party.

I can't see a 2nd party nomination for him though. The party was not that unified behind him and - probably the more loony wings admittedly - created a lot of splinters. Plus, I don't think his candidacy can be considered "successful" for the party. His best bet to me is to use his national campaign profile to run for an office where he is.

Let’s be honest here, Kanye West has a real good shot for 3rd/4th place in 2024. This country does love its celebrities. He’s doing better in the write-ins then similarly placed in states Rocky DLF. Still, it’s yet to be seen if this jolts Kanye West to start campaigning and getting on the ballot in states earlier.

I put into my results spreadsheet yesterday all the write-ins from Maryland. He got morewrite-ins than Brian Carroll got. I get celebrity status for being on the ballot providing a bump. But write-ins, a person has to actually know you're running and then take the time to put your name in.

Oddities in this election is the ASP overperforming the PSL in Illinois. In a state with such diversity and class conflict, the little amount of disaffected leftists is bizarre. On the flipside, the fact that the SWP is basically only seriously competitive in Kentucky for the far-left vote is also bizarre. I guess their is more ageing ex-Trots in Kentucky than anywhere else.

For Illinois, it might be a good idea to look at each of their percentages of the vote in just Cook County and then compare to Rest of Illinois.

Cook: La Riva 4048 (0.18%), Carroll 3030 (0.13%)
Rest of Illinois: Carroll 6240 (0.17%), La Riva 3761 (0.10%)

Can someone please tell me exactly what Jade Simmons actually believes in? I’m pretty impressed by her drive to get on so many states as basically a one-woman band (heh).

The Kotlikoff of this election. (A presidential candidate from 2016 that was only on 1 or 2 state ballots, but got a ton of write-in access.) Her write-in votes have taken her above in performance from ballot access-only votes above Dario Hunter and Jerome Segal, from 15th to 13th. She may end up the strongest "fifth party" candidate, although is still behind Alyson Kennedy (Socialist Workers) and Bill Hammons (Unity).

Still though, she (or someone backing her) paid $35000 to get on the Oklahoma ballot. Her job per Wikipedia is classical pianist...

[StateBoiler]

So IMO it seems the best possible performance for a third party would be a celebrity running on the Libertarian Party, combining the Libertarian Party's ruthless efficiency with ballot access and logistics with the publicity a celebrity candidate can get.

IMO the absolute pinnacle would be Mark Cuban, a libertarian-minded billionaire who can self fund and has been on TV for years.

Do you all agree that that'd be the best possible set up for a third party candidate to actually break through to a mainstream audience?

The issue with such a person is if you're Cuban do you want to put up with the "party bullsh**t". In other words, if you're Justin Amash and you say "I'm running for the Libertarian nomination for president", you're at one point going to be on a stage debating Jacob Hornberger and Vermin Supreme. Gary Johnson agreed to do it and props to him for that.

Looking at some updates, Hawkins when all is done at a stretch might get 400k votes. He's still a shade under 0.25%. Rocky has crossed 85k votes. La Riva running about 4000 votes behind him. Blankenship is about to cross 60k votes. Pierce is about to cross 45k votes. Carroll will probably cross 30k votes once more write-ins are tabulated by the states.

[StateBoiler]

Nov-18 Morning Update:

"3rd Parties"

Jorgensen - 1,839,399 - 1.18% (might cross 1.85 million)
Hawkins - 387,062 - 0.25% (still can't quite crack above this mark, he's lingering around 0.249%)

"4th Parties"

Rocky - 86,286 - 0.056% (67.5% of his votes are California)
La Riva - 82,356 - 0.053% (60% of her votes are California)
Kanye - 67,112 - 0.043%
Blankenship - 59,693 - 0.038% (should cross 60k votes)
Pierce - 45,241 - 0.029%
Carroll - 29,152 - 0.019% (probably the most upward potential of everyone here due to write-ins getting counted last)

"5th Parties"

Alyson Kennedy of the Socialist Workers Party leads Bill Hammons of the Unity Party by 195 votes. After them is Jade Simmons.

Write-ins Count:

Carroll 5,330
Hawkins 2,225
Kanye 879
Jade Simmons 647
Bernie Sanders 619 (I expect his number will be boosted a good amount when New Hampshire publishes their write-ins)
La Riva 367
Tom Hoefling 325

Top performing write-in candidate that did not have ballot access anywhere (not counting Bernie) is a Kasey Wells with 111 votes spread across 7 states. He or she has more votes than 1 person that was on the Vermont ballot. Another 30 and he or she will pass 2 more.

[StateBoiler]

Nov-19 Evening Update:

Jorgensen 1,847,715 - 1.18% - will cross 1.85 million votes
Hawkins 390,597 - 0.25% - finally did cross the 0.25% mark, reaching 400 thousand votes probably a bridge too far
Rocky 86,715 - 0.056%
La Riva 83,115 - 0.053%
Kanye 67,221 - 0.043%
Blankenship 59,776 - 0.038% - should cross 60 thousand votes
Pierce 46,210 - 0.030%
Carroll 30,957 - 0.020% - plugging in Leip's latest Texas update on write-ins got them above 30 thousand and almost to 31 thousand

Write-ins:

Carroll 7,006
Hawkins 2,406
"President" Eric Boddie 2,028 (2,012 of these are Leip's Texas write-in numbers update, I'm wondering if this is a typo)
Kanye 975
Jade Simmons 669
Bernie Sanders 619
La Riva 604
Tom Hoefling 467

That's everyone above 200.

[StateBoiler]

Looks like the Independence Party of New York have chosen to affiliate with the national Alliance Party. Podcast here talking with state chair Frank MacKay.

https://theallianceparty.podbean.com/e/independence-party-of-new-york-s-state-chair-frank-mackay/