Minor Party and Independent General Election Discussion

[W]

Maps are all updated now, I also made them for some more parties.

My current take on third parties in this election is Kanye West may have some interesting results (either way lower than expected or way higher and probably incredibly anomalous results state-by-state) and I also have a gut feeling the American Solidarity Party is gonna grow the most out of this election proportionally compared to the other parties. Certainly seen more buzz around them than around the other parties but once again, Twitter is not real life. They have a weird reverse Libertarian set of policy which cluld probably garner a niche voter base.

[W]

Today is the ballot deadline for Maine and Washington.

Maine requires 4,000 signatures which is fairly steep as far as the total population goes comparative to the rest of the state. At around 0.3% of the state population, it's 39/51 in terms of signatures required vs state population.

Washington requires 1,000 signatures which is actual 3/51 at around 0.012% of the state population.

Pretty much any campaign with a decent on the ground effort can make the Washington threshold, it'll be way more interesting to see who made the cut in Maine.

[W]

The Libertarians are being incredibly libertarian and offering paid signature collection gigs.

https://twitter.com/VerminSupreme/status/1286868683323772928

Nothing compared to Kanye's team apparently giving out $10 a signature which may honestly be a better gig if your integrity means nothing.

[The Mikado]

Today is the ballot deadline for Maine and Washington.

Maine requires 4,000 signatures which is fairly steep as far as the total population goes comparative to the rest of the state. At around 0.3% of the state population, it's 39/51 in terms of signatures required vs state population.

Washington requires 1,000 signatures which is actual 3/51 at around 0.012% of the state population.

Pretty much any campaign with a decent on the ground effort can make the Washington threshold, it'll be way more interesting to see who made the cut in Maine.

Do you think the Libertarians will make ballot access in Maine?

[W]

Today is the ballot deadline for Maine and Washington.

Maine requires 4,000 signatures which is fairly steep as far as the total population goes comparative to the rest of the state. At around 0.3% of the state population, it's 39/51 in terms of signatures required vs state population.

Washington requires 1,000 signatures which is actual 3/51 at around 0.012% of the state population.

Pretty much any campaign with a decent on the ground effort can make the Washington threshold, it'll be way more interesting to see who made the cut in Maine.

Do you think the Libertarians will make ballot access in Maine?

As they achieved under 10,000 votes in 2018 they lost party status and with it automatic ballot access in Maine. It's my opinion if they've made a concerted effort that they'll be able to regain that status, or at least get on the ballot this cycle. If they do not, it will be the first state whose ballot they miss.

[The Mikado]

So do we know how ME and WA turned out? 

[W]

So do we know how ME and WA turned out? 

My spreadsheet was inaccurate with WA's deadline. Today was the cutoff for holding a nominating convention which is a prerequisite of minor party candidates however all forms must be in by 8/7.

No news yet out of Maine although the deadline is now passed.

[BaldEagle1991]

Any idea on how the third parties will do in 2020 compared to 2016?

[W]

Any idea on how the third parties will do in 2020 compared to 2016?

All polling indicates very poorly, perhaps 2004 levels. Kanye West is a wild card if he gets successfully on more ballots, could get a considerable amount of votes, could get next to none. No way he outperforms Johnson 2016 however.

[Former President tack50]

Any idea on how the third parties will do in 2020 compared to 2016?

Based on current polling and how third parties tend to lose somewhere between half and 2/3 of their support between July and November, my prediction would be:

Jorgensen: Between 0.6 and 1%
Hawkins: Between 0.2 and 0.5%

[Tender Branson]

Any idea on how the third parties will do in 2020 compared to 2016?

Ballot-access-wise similar to 2016, I guess the Lib Party and Greens will miss only a few states with high hurdles.

Vote-wise, much worse than 2016.

[PSOL]

Mark Charles has chosen Sedinam Moyowasifsa Curry as his VP. Yeah, so the Green Party performance this election isn’t looking very good what with 36% of the primary vote running their own campaign. I mean, probably the vast majority of Green Party members will just see the frontrunner as the only option, but in such conditions as now, even a loss of slight support makes all the difference.

[politics_king]

I seriously think this will be the lowest vote total for 3rd parties in a Presidential election. No serious candidates for the Libertarian or Green Party.

[Canis]

Mark Charles has chosen Sedinam Moyowasifsa Curry as his VP. Yeah, so the Green Party performance this election isn’t looking very good what with 36% of the primary vote running their own campaign. I mean, probably the vast majority of Green Party members will just see the frontrunner as the only option, but in such conditions as now, even a loss of slight support makes all the difference.

Jesus lmao the green party is completely collapsing

[PSOL]

Mark Charles has chosen Sedinam Moyowasifsa Curry as his VP. Yeah, so the Green Party performance this election isn’t looking very good what with 36% of the primary vote running their own campaign. I mean, probably the vast majority of Green Party members will just see the frontrunner as the only option, but in such conditions as now, even a loss of slight support makes all the difference.

Jesus lmao the green party is completely collapsing

The Green Party started off as a party only united in terms of being pro-environment, which attracted a lot of diverse factions and personalities. It’s unsurprising that when the going gets rough, it finally sheds the excess.

Considering that the Green Party is at risk of losing new age types, trust fund babies, and Ba’athists—maybe this is a good thing for the party overall in the long term. No more will the detractors of the party point to the loopy personalities anymore. That, and I’m hearing rumblings that they’re going to introduce a dues system to actually finance campaigns on the local level.

I seriously think this will be the lowest vote total for 3rd parties in a Presidential election. No serious candidates for the Libertarian or Green Party.

Howie Hawkins is a war veteran and trade unionist angling for #buster types, he’s a far better candidate than the new age eye doctor on paper.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1288558865735249925

So I think this tweet is overconfident on the likely implications of this decision not to lower ballot access requirements in PA. I think that 5,000 signatures by Monday (given they've already been trying for a while) is definitely possible for the Libertarians at least. Maybe the Greens too? But the Libertarians very likely. If they're good at anything, it's working their asses off for ballot access.

We'll see on Monday, but my current guess given PA's ballot access rules aren't going to be softened is that Trump, Biden, and Jorgensen are on the ballot in PA but no one else.

[PSOL]

Green Party and Libertarian Party file joint lawsuit fighting ballot access restrictions

One area of bipartisan agreement among the Democratic and Republican parties is ensuring no competition is possible to arise anywhere.

[mileslunn]

Green Party and Libertarian Party file joint lawsuit fighting ballot access restrictions

One area of bipartisan agreement among the Democratic and Republican parties is ensuring no competition is possible to arise anywhere.

Makes campaigning a lot easier and polls more reliable too.  Third parties can lead to surprises.  It was Ralph Nader that almost led to Bush winning Oregon in 2000 while Ross Perot allowed Clinton to win Montana (which he wouldn't have otherwise) in 1992 and Colorado (unlike today it was a very red state then, its only blue now due to demographic changes since).  States like Maine, Alaska, and Montana are notorious for third parties doing well and in case of former could allow Trump to win it while latter two could go for Biden if a strong third party, but wouldn't otherwise.

[MarkD]

I wonder if Evan McMullin will run again? No news in Wikipedia about whether he will. It does quote him in Wikipedia that he intends to run for some office again some day.

[StateBoiler]

As a person with colorblindness that can't determine shades well, I hate the OP's color pallet. The Greens in Indiana don't have ballot access and if that's the alternate color for write-in, they're very close.

New Jersey ballot access per Richard Winger:

Alliance
Constitution
Green
Libertarian
Socialism & Liberation
Unity
Kanye West. Kanye's petition is being challenged.

I don't believe De La Fuente is on the Oklahoma ballot.

[StateBoiler]

I seriously think this will be the lowest vote total for 3rd parties in a Presidential election. No serious candidates for the Libertarian or Green Party.

Hard to top 1984. 0.67% total.

2004 went really low following 2000. It's going to be lower this year than 2016 which was 6% once you count all the write-in votes, but I think somewhere in the range of 2-3%.

[StateBoiler]

I wonder if Evan McMullin will run again? No news in Wikipedia about whether he will. It does quote him in Wikipedia that he intends to run for some office again some day.

His organization has done nothing since the election in 2016 except send out emails.

[StateBoiler]

Third parties will get 1% of less of the national vote. I'm calling it.

How much money are we betting?

[StateBoiler]

Mark Charles has chosen Sedinam Moyowasifsa Curry as his VP. Yeah, so the Green Party performance this election isn’t looking very good what with 36% of the primary vote running their own campaign. I mean, probably the vast majority of Green Party members will just see the frontrunner as the only option, but in such conditions as now, even a loss of slight support makes all the difference.

Jesus lmao the green party is completely collapsing

Hawkins went around and won all these primaries which gave him near the majority needed to clinch the nomination at the Convention under Green Party rules. What is the losing candidates' outcry, that the primaries are not real Greens/shouldn't have that much influence?

A dues system for minor parties is probably the right way to go in the interest of growth.

[StateBoiler]

https://twitter.com/Politics1com/status/1288558865735249925

So I think this tweet is overconfident on the likely implications of this decision not to lower ballot access requirements in PA. I think that 5,000 signatures by Monday (given they've already been trying for a while) is definitely possible for the Libertarians at least. Maybe the Greens too? But the Libertarians very likely. If they're good at anything, it's working their asses off for ballot access.

I listened to a show from the We Are Libertarians podcast from early 2016 recently. On it they had a Libertarian National Committee member on who said they approved to spend more than $100,000 to get their ballot access in Oklahoma, and there was some discussion about whether that was money well-spent considering what else it could've been used for. Well Johnson got above 5% to retain ballot access for the Libertarians, and in the mean time Oklahoma has passed a law that anyone that spends $35,000 can buy their way on to the ballot, thus why Kanye West, Brock Pierce, and Jade Simmons are on.