The Presidency of America's Maverick

[UWS]

This is going to be very interesting! I'm assuming McCain responds to 9/11 in a similar way to Bush, as McCain was a war-hock. Maybe his response is even more intense compared to Bush's. Looking forward to it!

And he has more foreign policy experience.

[UWS]

People often underestimate how much this primary could have affected state trends moving forward.

I think in this timeline, Al Gore should do a lot better in states like WV, MO, AR & TN without Karl Rove's culture war and W's "compassionate conservatism" rhetoric. However, at the same time McCain should be able to win by doing better in states like MN, MI, PA, NM, OR, VT & WA with his maverick image.

Something like this wouldn't surprise me:

McCain wins 279-259, with MO, MN & AR being the closest states. McCain probably wins the popular vote by around the same that Gore did IRL

Imo McCain would pick a Midwesterner and Gore would pick someone other than Lieberman in this TL

Yeah, I think McCain was a better fit than Bush for the Northeast, Midwest and Pacific Northwest, while being worse fit for Southern evangelicals. In terms of Senate races, I would also expect Republicans to hold MI and WA and gain NJ.

McCain would also be doing much better in New York, perhaps polling around mid-40s of percentage points. In effect, a poll before Super Tuesday 2000 that includes the New York primary, a poll was showing McCain trailing Gore in the state of New York by just 1 and that same poll even showed McCain beating Bill Bradley by 5 in New York.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_New_York#General_election

[UWS]

Excellent

I guess McCain might convince SC's pro-life evangelical voters by mentioning his adoption of his adopted daughter from Bangldesh Bridget McCain to show how much adoption is an alternative to abortion.

[UWS]

What about Missouri? It was also one of the big price states on Super Tuesday that year, I guess, with its 35 delegates.

[UWS]

Before Pennsylvania, there is also Illinois primary on March 21 that should likely favor McCain, especially in the Collar counties, including Chicago. After he won NY and CA, he surely proved his strength in states with big urban population, including Illinois with Chicago. In that state, I would see McCain being endorsed by Senator Peter Fitzgerald and Governor George Ryan.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/timeline.php?year=2000&f=0&off=0&elect=2

[UWS]

Danforth is probably his best pick. He can help reclaim the south and keep an ideological balance on the ticket.

And it woukd bring geographical balance as Missouri is among the Rust Belt but also neighboring the south with Arkansas. And it was that year in 2000 that Missouri really started becoming more social conservative.

[UWS]

John Kerry:



Strengths: Would help bring potential Nader voters into the fold which could help in many battlegrounds

Weaknesses: Would hurt ticket greatly in the South, and could turnoff moderates

Since when was Kerry that far to the left?

Hes not ,but he is considered to be more appealing to potential nader voters than Gephardt or Graham would be

His positions go whichever way the wind blows.

[UWS]

As it was the case in real life, I guess the second debate is about foreign policy, which is definitely McCain's stronghold (due to his military service in Vietnam and his foreign policy experience) and could take on the occasion to roast Gore on the Clinton administration's foreign policy failures (such as the failure of Operation Gothic Serpent in Somalia in 1993, the Rwandan genocide, Al Qaeda's attacks on the U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998, etc.)

[UWS]

McCain winning among voters of age 18-29, winning almost 40 % of Hispanic voters and 47 % of female voters and winning among middle-class voters likely indicates a promising night for him.

[UWS]

Nice! If McCain is winning the Bucks County, his chances to win Pennsylvania further increased. The moreover that if a social conservative like Rick Santorum has already won re-election in Pennsylvania, it surely helps a moderate like McCain in such a state that was considered as blue in the 1990s but then increasingly became a bit more red.

[UWS]

Good start for the McCain Administration. They passed campaign finance reform and they seem to be about to adopt education reform

[UWS]

Great update! I can't wait to see how Kandahar and Tora Bora (where Bin Laden was located at that time) will occur.

[UWS]

If Giuliani runs for Governor of New York at the height of his popularity (due to his leadership in handling New York City during and after 9/11) and if President McCain managed to get Osama Bin Laden killed, I think there is a good chance that McCain could win New York in 2004.

[UWS]

I guess that more big Republican names are about to announce intentions to run for Senate in 2002 due to McCain's overwhelmingly high approval ratings.

[UWS]

I wonder what the polls for the GA and LA runoff look like. A likely single-digit race in Georgia, it seems.

[UWS]

Interesting idea : McCain gets Alveda King to run for GA Senate in 2004 and helps her win

After all, I predict that Zell Miller will endorse President McCain in 2004 like he did for Bush IOTL due to his foreign policy strength.

[UWS]

Just wondering, what is the unemployment rate now in this scenario?

[UWS]

Japan is indeed an good example to follow to restore democracy and security in Iraq.

[UWS]

I guess that Kerry too might decide to forgo a presidential run this year due to his friendship with McCain.

[UWS]

Just by curiosity, when approximately do you think McCain should announce re-election bid?

[UWS]

I can see McCain getting an even bigger Democratic support than Bush did in real life with the support of not only Miller but also Joe Lieberman and Ed Koch.

[UWS]

McCain, four more years!

[UWS]

I guess the Second Liberian Civil War that also saw regime change occured about the same way in this scenario as IOTL.

[UWS]

When it comes to that early 2004 election preview above, there could be modifications of the ratings for the states, including perhaps New York. As we all know the 2004 Republican National Convention was held in New York City and IOTL, two weeks after the RNC, Kerry's lead in New York was reduced to just 6 percentage points due to Bush's convention bounce nationwide.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=399

And Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, has been killed and President McCain's maverick stance has strong appeal among more conservative Democrats and independent voters.

But of course it will depend on who's the Democratic nominee.

[UWS]

And what does the Democratic polling look like now?