When it comes to that early 2004 election preview above, there could be modifications of the ratings for the states, including perhaps New York. As we all know the 2004 Republican National Convention was held in New York City and IOTL, two weeks after the RNC, Kerry's lead in New York was reduced to just 6 percentage points due to Bush's convention bounce nationwide.
https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=399
And Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, has been killed and President McCain's maverick stance has strong appeal among more conservative Democrats and independent voters.
But of course it will depend on who's the Democratic nominee.
Yeah, the entire New York metro area swung Republican post 9/11. Bush got 47% in Fairfield County and came within five points in New Jersey which I think definitely goes for McCain ITTL. In some ways McCain is the ideal Republican for the New York area, culturally moderate and has appeal both to the wealthy suburbanites and to WWC Reagan/Trump type Democrats. I see him outperforming Bush in the suburbs and getting the sort of numbers Trump did on Staten Island.