The Presidency of America's Maverick

[Politician]

Like this so far, but why in all of your TL's do you make Appalachia Democratic?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Like this so far, but why in all of your TL's do you make Appalachia Democratic?

Well Keep in mind that in OTL issues such as Guns, the environment, coal have polarized the parties since 2000 which helped move the region from solidly Democratic in 2000 to solidly Republican by 2016. Add to the fact that Democrats from 2000-2016 nominated horrible fits for the region and its not surprise why Appalachia trended hard right in OTL(though even then keep in mind Democrats were doing well down ballot in Appalachia till 2014)

In this TL some major differences that keeps Appalachia more Democratic than OTL around the same point is that:

1. Having John McCain as the GOP President for 8 years rather than George W Bush does not polarize the parties around the environment nearly as much as OTL

2. Cultural issues are no where near as emphasized in a McCain Admin as they were in the Bush admin so both parties are not moving to their ideological camps to anywhere near the degree as it happened in OTL. It is still happening to some degree but no where near as stark as OTL

3. While George W Bush is the nominee here, in this TL the map still represents the McCain coalition more than the Bush one as parties that are running to hold the WH tend to try to hold their current coalition for 4 more years while parties who are out of the WH try to shake it up in order to win.

BTW: WV still has trended GOP here just not as stark as OTL


As for my other TL's :

Goldwater TL: A Compromise Amendment on Abortion and a more Libertarian Republican Icon keeps the parties more ideologically diverse than OTL especially given the emphasis of Federalism in that TL.

Romney Admin/Clinton Third Term: I probably would make Appalachia more Republican than I did if I were making the maps today, and the North East a little more Democratic

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of the Vice Presidential Debate:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMJ1wW-UBiA

Key Moment 1:

Ifill: If either of you are elected to the Vice Presidency which role would you play in a Bush or Clinton administration . Senator Frist you may go first

Frist: Well given how close the senate is expected to end up either way, I suspect I will be spending a lot of time in the senate helping the President to push some of his policies and I believe my experience of being in senate Leadership could help form some of the coalitions you need to pass certain policies . With my experience in the medical field as well as having studied health care policy I believe that I can really help us achieve comprehensive healthcare reform as well as advise the President on certain executive actions he can take to help improve the system as well.

Rockefeller: Like I said 4 years ago, I do not believe that the Vice President should deal with specific issues but rather be the top advisor to the President and help in any area the President would need me to get involved in at the time. If I am needed to be in the senate I will be in the senate, If I am needed in important foreign policy meetings I will be there or if I am needed to help the President craft certain executive actions I will do that as well. As someone who has been both a governor and a long time senator I believe I have the experience to help a President Hillary Clinton in whichever area she needs me to work on.

Frist: Well it goes without saying that we have to be ready to work in any area that is needed and so would I but the question is which area would we be most focused on and what I mentioned is the area that I would be mostly focused on. That area in my opinion would be in helping the President in getting important legislation like healthcare passed congress which I think the American people definitely want done.

Rockefeller: Well and Senator Clinton and I look forward to working with Senator Bush on the issue of Healthcare after we win this election(laughter) cause I can tell you that we will make that one of our top priorities next year.

Ifill: Moving on

Key Moment 2:

Ifill: As you may know the next President whoever it may be potentially may have to nominate up to 2 or 3 supreme court justices which could be every important in deciding issues such as the future of Roe vs Wade so will a potential justice's view on Roe be taken into account in selecting supreme court justices. Senator Rockefeller you go first

Rockefeller: A criteria we will be looking for when it comes to a potential justice is first obviously if they have the qualifications to do a good job on the court, but what we will be looking for in a justice is someone : Who will protect the individual rights of everyone and yes that includes a women's right to choose, and someone who supports the ability of the Legislative and Executive branches to take the action needed to help out the average person in this country rather than hamper our ability. By that we dont mean that the Supreme Court should dictate policy but rather they stand by and let important agencies such as OSHA take action.

Frist: Listen Senator Bush and I do not believe that a Supreme Court justice should be chosen by a single issue but the fact is we do believe that the a justice should not base their rulings on their political beliefs but rather the the written text of our constitution and the law and the fact is we do believe based on that Roe was decided wrongly. The fact is nothing in our constitution says anything about the issue of abortion which means that the issue should be decided by the people's elected representatives and Roe took that power away from the people. So if you really believe that the people and not a bunch of unelected elites should have power then you should also agree that Roe was decided wrongly.

Rockefeller: Listen the fact is that if you believe that that basic reproductive rights are in fact rights then it is not contradictory at all to believe that the courts should protect them cause it is the job of the courts to protect individual rights from the excesses of legislators as it has done throughout our history. Senator Clinton also believes though that abortions should be safe legal and rare and one way to ensure that of course is to ensure every working mother in our country can get guaranteed paid maternity leave and that is a policy she will pursue as President.

Frist: The question of what the government cannot do is outlined in the constitution and abortion policy is not on there. Now Senator Rockefeller has said that he and Senator Clinton believe that having an abortion is an individual right so if that is the case then you should push for a constitutional amendment which does exactly that rather than rely on unelected judges to legislate from the bench. This though shows the entire problem with the worldview of the Democrats and that is on abortion and really on social issues in general should be resolved by unelected judges just like they believe economic issues should be resolved by unelected bureaucrats and that worldview is just wrong.

Ifill: Moving on

Important Issue 3:

Ifill: Given the successes in Iraq, many wonder if we will ever see the same in Afghanistan. Will we be able to see a successful democracy in Afghanistan and if so when, Senator Frist you first

Frist: Yes I do think we can but of course since Afghanistan is not Iraq, the timetable has been longer but I believe we will get there . Unlike in Iraq, Afghanistan was far more divided and had far less of the structures and institutions needed to create a proper democracy so things have had to be built from scratch rather than taking existing Authoritarian structures and making the Democratic like we did in Iraq. We are making progress though as we have introduced Democracy at a local level so far and it has worked and I do want to remind folks that it took us over 12 years from the time we declared our independence to hold our first presidential election and another 3 before the bill of rights was ratified.

So we have to understand that these things take time and Senator Bush and I are willing to be patient enough to let things play out and not rush anything

Rockefeller: Listen I can understand why we may not be able to hold presidential elections anytime soon but I do not understand why we havent been able to implement a parliamentary system if we have built the structures up locally. Doing so would be a priority for Senator Clinton and I because the fact is we have to set goals with timetables at some point for us to be able to meet them and that is exactly what Senator Clinton will do when she is President. The fact is at some point to help build up some of the institutions we need democratically elected national leaders and that is a direction we will push over the upcoming years.

Frist: The problem with national elections is again finding out an agreement in how the powers can be shared between local, state and national governments cause without that agreement you could risk civil war.

We also need to ensure we create adequate protections to make sure no individual right's can be taken away by Democratic vote and we must ensure this first before holding national elections

Rockefeller: Well I do think we need to push localities, states and the national governments to come to some agreement soon and one such proposal could be adopting our version of separation of powers between the states and federal government there as well. The fact is though unless we start to create time tables we will never be able to accomplish our goals as they will be kept pushing back


Polls stay static after debate as viewers viewed debate as a Draw:

Blitzer: So David it does not seem like the Vice Presidential debate changed much

Gergen: No surprise as its not really what the people take into mind when deciding who will vote as people are voting for who they think will be the better president not Vice President. I do think the next debate will be very important and could shape the rest of this campaign

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Is America seen better in the rest of the world ITTL?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Is America seen better in the rest of the world ITTL?

Yes definitely as the US is still in organizations like ICC , GITMO really doenst exist and the US has taken action on climate change here

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of 2nd Presidential Debate:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNScYjnkEns

Important Moment 1:

Brokaw: The next question is about education and it is to Senator Bush

Audience Member 1: Senator Bush you have talked a lot about on the trail about increasing school accountability but the question I have is dont you worry your plan will lead to schools teaching to the test too much

Bush: Thank You for the question and what I like to say is lets put that logic to the test cause what we want to do is make sure our kids our being taught Math and English and if they are being taught for a Math or English Test , then guess what they are being taught Math and English and that is the whole point.  The fact is we cannot wait till kids are already in high school for them and their parents to find out they are way behind then which is why we want to ensure we can find out where kids really stand from the time they are in 3rd grade so parents can know where their kid really stands.

Lastly I want to add the fact that I am a strong believer in increasing teacher pay as we cannot have any education system work without the hard work of great teachers and that is something I will push for as President.

Clinton: I again believe this is the wrong approach and instead we should focus on issues such as reducing class room sizes to ensure teachers can spend more individual time with an individual kid and at the same time increasing funding for schools in low income areas to improve their quality. This can ensure every kid in America’s need is met and it is something I believe will really improve our nation’s education system .

I do not believe making 3rd graders taking standardized tests is the solution to the problem and especially not in judging of what schools are successful or failures as it is a fact that every kid learns at a different pace . Now what is worse in my opinion is his school voucher plan which will undermine our public education system if ever implemented

Bush : I do not think we are putting too much pressure but rather setting high expectations and it is also a fact that kids do better when you hold them to higher expectations than accept lower expectations. Number 2 , Senator Clinton’s comment misunderstand the purpose of public schools and that is to ensure every kid in America can get a decent education for free and that is exactly what my plan will do . Schools that are failing to do their jobs and I am sure no one here denies there are some that do exist are failing to educate our kids and prepare them for adulthood and what my voucher plan will do is let the parents of those kids send their kids to another school which is successful for free .

Listen I am a huge supporter of public schools but the fact is even if there is one failing school in our country we cannot let those kids suffer the consequences for it cause my belief is that no child should be left behind .


Clinton : Like I said I do not think we should accept a failing school either but the solution is to make those schools better. The way you do that is by investing money in low income districts , and to incentivize the best teachers in America to teach at those schools. In fact I think we should consider a program that would make the pay of those teachers higher so we can incentive immediate improvement.

Bush : Listen should we improve the quality of those schools, the answer is yes and I support policies that would do so but the fact is change takes time and in the meanwhile we should let parents of those kids have the choice to send their kids to better schools if they want

Clinton: Let me add that just using test scores to determine what a failing school is or not is way to narrow minded and encourages gaming of the system to make bad ones look good and that is something I will not do.

Brokaw: Moving on


Key Moment 2:

Brokaw: The next question is for Senator Clinton

Audience Member 2: While everyone knows that parties out of power usually try to argue for change while the party in power tends to argue for generally for keeping the nation in the direction it has been going, I believe that there are some areas where that has to not be true. So my question to you Senator Clinton is which major areas would you say you agree with President McCain's policies more than Senator Bush would

Clinton: That is a great question and my answer would be on the area of the environment and addressing the issue of global warming. Keep in mind in early December of 2004 there was a bill proposed by President McCain that would implement a cap and trade system and would cap emissions and it is a bill that I supported while my opponent Senator Bush voted no. I would also like to add the fact that I have always appreciated the fact the President took the issue of global warming seriously and as President I plan to expand upon his work in this area by expanding investment into alternative energy to ensure we can return to 1990 level of carbon emissions even earlier than the 2020 goal .

It is something I believe will create lots of jobs as well which is why I will expand upon the President McCain's work as President

Bush: That is not the facts Senator Clinton, as the fact is I too support more investments in alternative energy it is just not that it should come at an expense of traditional sources of energy as doing so will result in energy prices going higher and higher. At the end of the day that is why I voted no on that 2004 bill and why I propose modifying it to ensure that we can have an energy policy in place that lets us produce the oil, coal , natural gas we need without having to import it from other countries.

That does not mean though I will oppose new spending in alternative energy cause my belief is we need to have an all of the above strategy and that is what I will implement as President.

Clinton: Listen the fact is that scientists from all across the world have concluded that man made global warming will be a huge issue for our planet and it must be addressed. I also want to add that protecting our environment has been an issue that both Democratic and Republican Presidents in the past have worked to take action on and such Republican Presidents are Teddy Roosevelt with our National Parks, Richard Nixon with the EPA to help clean up our air and water, Ronald Reagan with taking action to protect our Ozone Layer, John McCain with addressing global warming and I want to add even the Senator's father as President took numerous actions to protect our environment.

So In my opinion it is actually sad that we have a Republican nominee for President who would make such a break with his own party's history and make the issue of protecting our environment a partisan view.


Bush: What Senator Clinton fails to point out is that dealing with the issue of global warming is just as economic as it is environmental as wrong policy could result in hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs and that to me isnt right. Number 2 and most importantly , the fact is we cannot address the issue of climate change unless every nation in the world including China and India have to abide by it and the fact is Senator the treaty you and former President Bill Clinton exempted China and India from such a treaty . Like how can you seriously argue that you want to reduce carbon emissions while exempting the two most populated nations on the planet so again its not about should we do something or not cause even if we do it will not matter unless you get China and India on board as well.

In the meanwhile my opinion is the best way to reduce our carbon emissions in an economical way is through encouraging a policy of innovation that can help bring down the prices of alternative energy to around the same level of traditional energy sources and if you want to do that you need to have a tax and regulatory policy that encourages that .

Clinton: Many economists say that investing in new alternative energy programs will create hundreds of thousands if not millions of new jobs so the idea that it is economically unviable is just not true

Bush: I just want to add that the issue with Senator Clinton's policy here comes with her regulatory policy which would cause many workers to be displaced.

Important Moment 3:

Brokaw: Senator Bush the next question is for you

Audience Member 3: Senator Bush you and many conservatives cite states rights and federalism when it comes to opposing new government programs, and in opposing Roe vs Wade so isnt it hypocritical then that you are campaigning on passing a constitutional amendment that would define marriage in this country and also getting involved in state ballot initiatives that would do the same even if they are not Texas

Bush: Thanks for the question as it is a good question and one that I along with many conservatives get and the fact is no it is not hypocritical. By definition an amendment can only pass if 3/4ths of the states ratify it including states that many consider to be Democratic or Liberal so proposing an amendment literally does take into account the rights of states. I do not believe a national ban would be constitutional as the constitution says nothing about the issue of marriage and due to the 10th amendment I believe that the issue should be up to the states now.

As for me getting involved in referendums, all what is happening is that local media along with national media have asked me what I personally think about those referendums and I am giving my opinion of how I would vote if I were a resident of that state. That does not mean if say a state votes down a referendum to define marriage as between a man and a woman, I as the president will move to overturn it as I will respect the verdict of the people either way.

Clinton: I do think it is hypocritical as say a fifth of the states disagree with such an amendment, you would have a scenario where their wishes get ignored and you get a scenario where the Federal Government will mandate its definition of marriage to states that disagree and not matter what technicalities my opponent comes up so it is hypocritical.

Brokaw: Senator Clinton do you think marriage is between a man and woman

Clinton: Yes I do Tom but that does not mean I would support an amendment defining marriage as that and I also have problems with some of these ballot measures as some of them are so poorly worded that it can result in a system where civil unions would be considered illegal and that is something I cannot support and could result in an environment which could result in more discrimination against gay and lesbian Americans which is something we all should oppose.

Brokaw: I do want to ask one question to the both of you on this issue. Senator Bush in your case would you nominate a supreme court justice who would uphold bans on civil unions and Senator Clinton would you nominate a supreme court justice that would strike down bans on gay marriage

Bush: Listen I have said over and over , I will not select a Supreme Court Justice based on one issue or their political stance on the issues but rather on the fact if they would interpret the constitution and the law in the manner it was written and not the way they want.

Clinton: I would also want to add that I would not select a justice based on one issue but my justice as to be someone that is a strong fighter for every American's civil rights and if a state violates that then their laws should be struck down otherwise not.


Brokaw: Moving on


Senator Bush surges into nationwide lead after debate victory



Bush/Frist 223 47%
Clinton/Rockefeller 210 46%
Nader/Gonzalez 3%

Blitzer: This debate was viewed as a victory for Senator Bush and as a result as surged into a lead so David what did you take of this

Gergen: I am not surprised by this as this format was a format where Senator Bush was considered to be strong and he did deliver and some of his questions particularly on education and on social issues has helped him the South. Louisiana went from Tossup to Leaning Bush and Kentucky went from a tossup state that if forced wed say Tilted to Clinton to one now that tilts to Bush.

Though keep in mind the last and final debate is not gonna be in this format and will be on economic issues which could really determine who has the momentum going into the final weeks of this campaign. Its the debate that also both candidates could have potential downfalls as being technocratic doesnt help in a economic policy debate as it does in foreign policy which Senator Clinton used to win that debate and we do not expect either educational policy or any of these social issues to be debated either which are both areas Senator Bush does will in so the final debate will be crucial

Blitzer: yes and we just cannot wait for that now

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of 3rd Presidential Debate:



Source: https://charlierose.com/videos/11258

Important Moment 1:

Schiffer: The Issue of Healthcare is an issue that according to many polls is an important issue for many Americans so if either of you are elected what would be your plans to reform the system. Senator Clinton you go first

Clinton: Thanks Bob and as you know trying to pass universal healthcare as been a mission of mine since I became part of the national political stage as the first lady and it is something I have pushed for as a senator and will push for as President. Four Reforms I believe we can make instantly is one we should allow all Americas to buy into the same healthcare plan we in Congress get as the fact is we should not be receiving better healthcare than average Americans, two we should require large companies to provide their employees with health insurance or at least pay into their funds that will make it easier for their employees to afford healthcare, three we should expand Medicaid to cover more working class Americans , four we will lower the Medicare Age to 55 as doing so will cover Americans that are most likely to need it but who currently cant access it.

It also would lower healthcare costs for everyone else as the overall risk levels these insurance companies will have to take on will be covered. If you make these reforms you can I believe effectively create a system where every American can have access to healthcare .


Bush: Well the problem with Senator Clinton's plan is it does not change the fact that it only addresses the symptoms of the problems rather than addresses the problem itself and all it would do is result in costs being passed on to Americans in other ways . That would include the payroll tax being increased which means less take home pay for working Americans and her quasi employer mandate would result in them passing of those new costs they are now mandated to take on to you the consumer and that includes things everyone relies on such as groceries.

My plan instead would be very similar to the one where we tried to push last year and that includes tax credits to help people who are uninsured but otherwise are insured purchase health insurance, increase competition by letting people buy insurance across state lines which will help bring down prices, expand high-risk pools for individuals who cannot afford insurance and finally making it easier for people to invest money into an Health Savings Account. Doing this will increase competition in the healthcare market and also make it easier for people to afford healthcare without increasing a penny in taxes. Keep in mind this is also a plan that Senator Clinton and the Democrats filibustered last year for partisan politics so the fact is we could have already had this reform in place if not for them.

Clinton: The reason we filibustered this reform bill does not actually reform the system but rather only make it seem like it has been reformed and that is something I dont think is good. The fact is none of these reform would actually make it easier for many working class Americans like expanding Medicaid would or lowering the Medicare age would and the way you pay that is by implementing a surtax for people making $200,000 or more and by rolling back some of the corporate tax cuts passed by this last administration .
 
So the fact is that we can pay for my healthcare plan without raising a nickle in taxes for the vast majority of Americans and small businesses as well which is why I think it is the best way to go when it comes to healthcare.

Bush: The issue with the plan is raising the corporate tax rate means those taxes will be passed on to the consumer which then will result in Americans paying more for things they rely on and that is something I will vehemently oppose. The fundamental problem with Senator Clinton's plan is it doesnt actually lower prices but just changes the payment structure and my opinion is we need solutions that will actually lower the price and the way to do that is to increase competition.

Schieffer: Moving on

Important Moment 2:

Schiffer: While the US economy may be out of recession , many economists believe we are still only early in a recovery phase so what would be either of your plans to speeden up the recovery as fast as problem.

Bush: Bob the solution is pretty simple in my minds and that is we need to put more money in the hands of the people so they can spend it the way they like rather which is why I believe we should cut taxes by 10% across the board as doing so will let people keep more of their money which they can use it to spend on the economy which will result in more economic activity . Also keep in mind that most small businesses in our nation pay taxes at the individual rate not the corporate rate so cutting individual taxes will also put more money in the hands of small business owners which then will let them have the money they need to expand their business and hire new employees.

I also believe we need to expand the child tax credit so it can be easier for families to raise their kids and will allow more Americans who are unable to have kids have them if they choose to do so. Strong Families are a core part of what makes this country great and I will not let these economic times hamper that .

Clinton: Well what we need in my opinion to really boost our economy is a real stimulus plan and any good stimulus plan in my opinion would do these things: invest in our nation's infrastructure , invest in research and development, and gives relied to people struggling in these economic times. Doing this would allow us to directly stimulate the economy as workers who are struggling to find jobs in times like this would benefit more from our relief program than a tax cut which they then later will use on our economy. Also our infrastructure program not only will help build up the infrastructure needed in today's economy it will also create hundreds of thousands and maybe even millions of  jobs which will help our economy recover quickly.

Now not only will this stimulus plan help address the economic issues facing us today but will help us  create the jobs of tomorrow from the advances in R&D, all sorts of industries that can come to cities that they currently cannot due to inadequate infrastructure . This I believe is critical for our future as doing so will help make a better America and why it will be one of my top priorities as President.

Bush: The problem once again with Senate Clinton's proposal is that it once again operates from the idea that the government knows how to best spend your money better than you do while I believe the best way to stimulate the economy is to let the people spend their money the way they want. Now of course areas like infrastructure are areas where you do need government to invest in but my belief is it is an area where the states and cities best know how which projects they need and it is not something that should be dictated top down. If they need funding I am in support of creating block grants which we can give to the states and then let them spend the money they want on infrastructure rather than it be tied up in the federal bureaucracy.

Clinton: Well the fact is for people who are unemployed a tax cut does not benefit them the same way programs like extended unemployment benefits, job retraining does and that is something I believe we should rather spend money on.  A Tax cut even one across the board would mostly go towards people who dont need the Tax Cut while giving relief to struggling workers gives money to people who most need it. Second there are many infrastructure projects such as airports, better cross country public transportation that can only be done federally and that is what I will do as President.


Schieffer: Moving On

Important Moment 3:

Schieffer: Senator Clinton you have criticized the McCain administration for the budget deficits but many would argue they were unavoidable due to the War on Terror and now this economic slowdown we are in so why do you blame the President and what would you do differently.

Clinton: Well one the fact is the President's policies contributed to this economic slowdown due to the fact that we have failed to invest in areas where we need investments in , and along with the fact that even before the recession last year, economic growth was slower than we needed so I do not think we should let the President of the hook on that. Second The President a couple years ago decided to give large corporations a 500 billion dollar tax cut which increases are annual deficit by 50 billion dollars every year and in my opinion was a bad bill.

My plan to get back to a balanced budget is one to speeden up our economic recovery though the stimulus bill which will increases revenues in the coming years and two I would ask large corporations and the wealthy to pay a little more in taxes to ensure we can have a balanced budget in the future.

Bush: I want to add that it is completely unfair to blame the President for these deficits as keep in mind we have been fighting a war for the past 7 years and really if you go back and look in our history you will see wars create deficits so blaming the President for that is really unfair. Number 2 I want to add that the President inherited an economy that was on the verge of recession and then was later made worse by the 9/11 attacks which made recovering from it harder than we normally would have.

I do agree with Senator Clinton that robust economic growth is the only way we will get to a balanced budget which is why I believe my tax plan will generate the US government more revenues than it costs in the long run and number two our victory in Iraq will mean we wont have to spend nearly as much in Iraq as we do today so I do think we can have a balanced budget again.

Clinton: Listen the fact is we did pass tax cuts just two and a half years ago and it has not brought in the revenues Republicans claimed it would so why should we believe now another huge tax wouldn't do the same especially to the ones going to the wealthy. I also want to remind Americans that 16 years ago the President's father made the same argument against my husband that raising taxes would end up harming our economy and not bring down the deficit and guess what by the end of my husband's administration we arguably were in the greatest economic boom in our history and we had balanced the budget and it is a model I intend to follow.

Bush: I want to first add to the fact that President Bill Clinton also cut the capital gains rate, cut spending in areas many liberals would not approve of and the fact is for the so called greatest economy in history, left President McCain with an economy on verge of recession which is what ended up wiping out our defict. I would also like to add that in 1992 the year before Bill Clinton became President our economy was already growing by 3.5% and deficits started going down in the final budget my father President George HW Bush signed.

Clinton: I just want to end by saying isnt it amazing that my opponent wants his party to get all the credit for things that go right in Democratic administrations but say they should not blamed for things that go wrong in theirs.

Bush: There was a Republican President in 1992 not a Democratic one in office so that economic growth happened on his watch and blaming a recession on President McCain when he was only in office for a few months at the time is misleading.

Schieffer: Moving On

Polls show Clinton as narrow winner in Debate as race moves back into a tie:



Bush/Frist 223 47%
Clinton/Rockefeller 220 47%
Nader/Gonzalez 3%

Blitzer: So the race is once again a tie after the final debate so David could we say Senator Clinton won

Gergen: I would say if you had to choose a winner you would say yes she won but I would say it was effectively a tie as one point movement isnt much and now means unless something unprecedent happens in the finals few weeks of this campaign this race will remain the purest of tossups all the way till election day. So all I have to say is that I think at this point it is very likely we will have the closest election we have seen since 1960 and also not to believe anyone who says they know who will win.

[BigVic]

Hillary in 2008 with Bill’s 1992 holding

[Sir Mohamed]

HRC is probably going to win with around 300 EVs and a ~3 pt. NPV edge.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Summary of 3rd Presidential Debate:



Source: https://charlierose.com/videos/11258

Important Moment 1:

Schiffer: The Issue of Healthcare is an issue that according to many polls is an important issue for many Americans so if either of you are elected what would be your plans to reform the system. Senator Clinton you go first

Clinton: Thanks Bob and as you know trying to pass universal healthcare as been a mission of mine since I became part of the national political stage as the first lady and it is something I have pushed for as a senator and will push for as President. Four Reforms I believe we can make instantly is one we should allow all Americas to buy into the same healthcare plan we in Congress get as the fact is we should not be receiving better healthcare than average Americans, two we should require large companies to provide their employees with health insurance or at least pay into their funds that will make it easier for their employees to afford healthcare, three we should expand Medicaid to cover more working class Americans , four we will lower the Medicare Age to 55 as doing so will cover Americans that are most likely to need it but who currently cant access it.

It also would lower healthcare costs for everyone else as the overall risk levels these insurance companies will have to take on will be covered. If you make these reforms you can I believe effectively create a system where every American can have access to healthcare .


Bush: Well the problem with Senator Clinton's plan is it does not change the fact that it only addresses the symptoms of the problems rather than addresses the problem itself and all it would do is result in costs being passed on to Americans in other ways . That would include the payroll tax being increased which means less take home pay for working Americans and her quasi employer mandate would result in them passing of those new costs they are now mandated to take on to you the consumer and that includes things everyone relies on such as groceries.

My plan instead would be very similar to the one where we tried to push last year and that includes tax credits to help people who are uninsured but otherwise are insured purchase health insurance, increase competition by letting people buy insurance across state lines which will help bring down prices, expand high-risk pools for individuals who cannot afford insurance and finally making it easier for people to invest money into an Health Savings Account. Doing this will increase competition in the healthcare market and also make it easier for people to afford healthcare without increasing a penny in taxes. Keep in mind this is also a plan that Senator Clinton and the Democrats filibustered last year for partisan politics so the fact is we could have already had this reform in place if not for them.

Clinton: The reason we filibustered this reform bill does not actually reform the system but rather only make it seem like it has been reformed and that is something I dont think is good. The fact is none of these reform would actually make it easier for many working class Americans like expanding Medicaid would or lowering the Medicare age would and the way you pay that is by implementing a surtax for people making $200,000 or more and by rolling back some of the corporate tax cuts passed by this last administration .
 
So the fact is that we can pay for my healthcare plan without raising a nickle in taxes for the vast majority of Americans and small businesses as well which is why I think it is the best way to go when it comes to healthcare.

Bush: The issue with the plan is raising the corporate tax rate means those taxes will be passed on to the consumer which then will result in Americans paying more for things they rely on and that is something I will vehemently oppose. The fundamental problem with Senator Clinton's plan is it doesnt actually lower prices but just changes the payment structure and my opinion is we need solutions that will actually lower the price and the way to do that is to increase competition.

Schieffer: Moving on

Important Moment 2:

Schiffer: While the US economy may be out of recession , many economists believe we are still only early in a recovery phase so what would be either of your plans to speeden up the recovery as fast as problem.

Bush: Bob the solution is pretty simple in my minds and that is we need to put more money in the hands of the people so they can spend it the way they like rather which is why I believe we should cut taxes by 10% across the board as doing so will let people keep more of their money which they can use it to spend on the economy which will result in more economic activity . Also keep in mind that most small businesses in our nation pay taxes at the individual rate not the corporate rate so cutting individual taxes will also put more money in the hands of small business owners which then will let them have the money they need to expand their business and hire new employees.

I also believe we need to expand the child tax credit so it can be easier for families to raise their kids and will allow more Americans who are unable to have kids have them if they choose to do so. Strong Families are a core part of what makes this country great and I will not let these economic times hamper that .

Clinton: Well what we need in my opinion to really boost our economy is a real stimulus plan and any good stimulus plan in my opinion would do these things: invest in our nation's infrastructure , invest in research and development, and gives relied to people struggling in these economic times. Doing this would allow us to directly stimulate the economy as workers who are struggling to find jobs in times like this would benefit more from our relief program than a tax cut which they then later will use on our economy. Also our infrastructure program not only will help build up the infrastructure needed in today's economy it will also create hundreds of thousands and maybe even millions of  jobs which will help our economy recover quickly.

Now not only will this stimulus plan help address the economic issues facing us today but will help us  create the jobs of tomorrow from the advances in R&D, all sorts of industries that can come to cities that they currently cannot due to inadequate infrastructure . This I believe is critical for our future as doing so will help make a better America and why it will be one of my top priorities as President.

Bush: The problem once again with Senate Clinton's proposal is that it once again operates from the idea that the government knows how to best spend your money better than you do while I believe the best way to stimulate the economy is to let the people spend their money the way they want. Now of course areas like infrastructure are areas where you do need government to invest in but my belief is it is an area where the states and cities best know how which projects they need and it is not something that should be dictated top down. If they need funding I am in support of creating block grants which we can give to the states and then let them spend the money they want on infrastructure rather than it be tied up in the federal bureaucracy.

Clinton: Well the fact is for people who are unemployed a tax cut does not benefit them the same way programs like extended unemployment benefits, job retraining does and that is something I believe we should rather spend money on.  A Tax cut even one across the board would mostly go towards people who dont need the Tax Cut while giving relief to struggling workers gives money to people who most need it. Second there are many infrastructure projects such as airports, better cross country public transportation that can only be done federally and that is what I will do as President.


Schieffer: Moving On

Important Moment 3:

Schieffer: Senator Clinton you have criticized the McCain administration for the budget deficits but many would argue they were unavoidable due to the War on Terror and now this economic slowdown we are in so why do you blame the President and what would you do differently.

Clinton: Well one the fact is the President's policies contributed to this economic slowdown due to the fact that we have failed to invest in areas where we need investments in , and along with the fact that even before the recession last year, economic growth was slower than we needed so I do not think we should let the President of the hook on that. Second The President a couple years ago decided to give large corporations a 500 billion dollar tax cut which increases are annual deficit by 50 billion dollars every year and in my opinion was a bad bill.

My plan to get back to a balanced budget is one to speeden up our economic recovery though the stimulus bill which will increases revenues in the coming years and two I would ask large corporations and the wealthy to pay a little more in taxes to ensure we can have a balanced budget in the future.

Bush: I want to add that it is completely unfair to blame the President for these deficits as keep in mind we have been fighting a war for the past 7 years and really if you go back and look in our history you will see wars create deficits so blaming the President for that is really unfair. Number 2 I want to add that the President inherited an economy that was on the verge of recession and then was later made worse by the 9/11 attacks which made recovering from it harder than we normally would have.

I do agree with Senator Clinton that robust economic growth is the only way we will get to a balanced budget which is why I believe my tax plan will generate the US government more revenues than it costs in the long run and number two our victory in Iraq will mean we wont have to spend nearly as much in Iraq as we do today so I do think we can have a balanced budget again.

Clinton: Listen the fact is we did pass tax cuts just two and a half years ago and it has not brought in the revenues Republicans claimed it would so why should we believe now another huge tax wouldn't do the same especially to the ones going to the wealthy. I also want to remind Americans that 16 years ago the President's father made the same argument against my husband that raising taxes would end up harming our economy and not bring down the deficit and guess what by the end of my husband's administration we arguably were in the greatest economic boom in our history and we had balanced the budget and it is a model I intend to follow.

Bush: I want to first add to the fact that President Bill Clinton also cut the capital gains rate, cut spending in areas many liberals would not approve of and the fact is for the so called greatest economy in history, left President McCain with an economy on verge of recession which is what ended up wiping out our defict. I would also like to add that in 1992 the year before Bill Clinton became President our economy was already growing by 3.5% and deficits started going down in the final budget my father President George HW Bush signed.

Clinton: I just want to end by saying isnt it amazing that my opponent wants his party to get all the credit for things that go right in Democratic administrations but say they should not blamed for things that go wrong in theirs.

Bush: There was a Republican President in 1992 not a Democratic one in office so that economic growth happened on his watch and blaming a recession on President McCain when he was only in office for a few months at the time is misleading.

Schieffer: Moving On

Polls show Clinton as narrow winner in Debate as race moves back into a tie:



Bush/Frist 223 47%
Clinton/Rockefeller 220 47%
Nader/Gonzalez 3%

Blitzer: So the race is once again a tie after the final debate so David could we say Senator Clinton won

Gergen: I would say if you had to choose a winner you would say yes she won but I would say it was effectively a tie as one point movement isnt much and now means unless something unprecedent happens in the finals few weeks of this campaign this race will remain the purest of tossups all the way till election day. So all I have to say is that I think at this point it is very likely we will have the closest election we have seen since 1960 and also not to believe anyone who says they know who will win.

Liking your timeline, especially how it actually sounds like Bush lost the debate

[OSR stands with Israel]

House Battleground Projection

Blitzer: Not only will be electing a new President next Tuesday but also we will be watching who will control congress over the next two years . So John How does the House look

King : Let’s pull up our battleground tracker for the house and this is what we get

Republicans: 208
Democrats: 207
Tossup : 20

King : As you can see it’s pretty much a dead heat and some good news for Democrats here is that out of those 20 tossup seats , 18 of them are currently held by republicans. What that means is Democrats are pretty much on the offense in this entire map which is of course where they wanna be . In fact if you take the seats that only lean towards each party of their totals this is what you get

Democrats: 203
Republicans: 195
Battleground: 37

King : As you can in this scenario Democrats start out with the advantage in the house and not the Republicans .

Blitzer: So who do you think is favored in the house

King : I would say if I had to choose I would actually give a very slight edge to the democrats but I would say whoever wins the presidency likely will have their party control the house too . I will say though there is a greater chance Senator Bush will face a Democratic House than Senator Clinton a Republican house given there is no Nader factor effecting house races .

Blitzer: If you want to see our ratings for individual house races please visit our website as on there we have listed out how each seat has been rated.


Battleground Senate Seats:

Blitzer: Now let’s go over to the senate and see how it looks

King : So let’s go over to our senate battleground and bring it up and go over these races

Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Alaska: Senator Ted Stevens(R) vs Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich(D) - Tossup

Colorado:  Former Governor Bill Owens(R) vs Representative Mark Udall(D) - Tossup

Kentucky: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell(R) vs Former Lieutenant Governor Steve Beshear(D)- Lean Democratic Gain


Mississippi(Special): Senator Roger Wicker(R) vs Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove - Lean Republican Hold

New Hampshire: Senator John Sununu(R) vs Former Governor Jeane Shaheen(D) - Lean Republican Hold

New Jersey: Senator Christine Todd Whitman(D) vs State Senator Barbara Buono(D) - Tossup

North Carolina: Seantor Elizabeth Dole(R) vs State Senator Kay Hagan(D) - Tossup

New Mexico: Representative Heather Wilson(R) vs Representative Tom Udall(D)- Lean Democratic Gain

Virginia: Former Governor Jim Gilmore(R) vs Former Governor Mark Warner(D)- Safe Democratic Gain


Vulnerable Democratic Seats

Louisiana : Senator Mary Landrieu(D) vs State Secretary of State Jay Dardenne(R) - Lean Democratic Hold

North Carolina Special: Senator Jim Hunt(D) vs Multiple Republicans- D Likely to Get over 50%

South Carolina : Senator Inez Tenenbaum(D) vs State Senator Nikki Haley(R) - Lean Republican Gain


King : As you can see this means even without any of the tossups the Democrats will have a net gain of 2 seats which is enough to get a majority as long as if they hold all the leans

Blitzer: So what is the Senate Republican strategy to win

King : Well they will have to first and foremost sweep all the tossups on here and then they must win either Kentucky , New Mexico or Louisiana and if they do they get to 50 . Now many may ask wouldn’t 50 mean they need the presidency and my answer is if they are able to get 49 or more seats they are winning the presidency so that’s a moot point

Blitzer : what’s the most likely of those 3 to go republican

King : Many would say Kentucky but I would say given how much resources has been put in that race  and how well known both well known both Mr. McConnell and Mr. Beshear are its much harder in a race like that to have an upset. So that leaves Louisiana and New Mexico and I would say New Mexico is the more likely upset given that upsets are more likely to take places in Open Seats and New Mexico is an Open Seat.

Blitzer: if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell loses it could be a very big blow for the GOP

King: Oh absolutely given the fact he is a very shrewd and ruthless political operator and losing someone like that in your party is always a huge blow . I would say this though is the consequence of Kentucky Republicans not doing as well at the state level as due to this Democrats have a very deep bench they can choose from and if Republicans were able to translate more of their success at a national level in Kentucky to the state level, then maybe this seat wouldnt be in danger of being lost.

Blitzer: Last question here is why are we putting North Carolina Special In the battlegrounds

King: Well for one it is a jungle primary special election and while it is likely that Senator Hunt gets over 50%, weird things can happen in jungle primaries so we have put it here just to be safe.

Battleground Gubernatorial Races:

Blitzer: Now we also have gubernatorial races in a few states up so what are the battlegrounds for that

King: Well we only have one

Vulnerable Republican Seat:

Deleware : Governor Bob Lee(R) vs State Attorney General Beau Biden(D)- Tossup

King: And as you can see it is the current Governor vs the son of long time senator and the 2004 Democratic Nominee Joe Biden so this race will be very interesting to see.

Blitzer: I just want to add again that if you want to see what races will be up for election next Tuesday please visit our website as on their we have full list of races on there including many of the lesser known state wide races too.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Hopefully Hunt carries Hagan over the finish line.

[Politician]

Hoping McConnell goes down hard.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 Election Night Preview:

Blitzer: With 24 Hours left till the election lets go over to John King and the Magic Wall to see where we stand.

King: Yes and no surprise if you pull up the map its again extremely extremely close but we have been able to move Nevada from tossup to Lean Bush and Iowa from tossup to Lean Clinton. So when you factor that in you get to Senator Bush at 228 and Senator Clinton at 227



Bush/Frist 228 47%
Clinton/Rockefeller 227 47%
Nader/Gonzalez 3%

Blitzer: So what are some critical states either side cannot lose

King: Well for one neither Senator Bush nor Senator Clinton afford to lose both Pennsylvania or Ohio. Keep in mind those add up to 41 electoral votes so if Senator Bush gets them both he gets to 269 Electoral votes meaning Senator Clinton cannot get to 270 and if Senator Clinton gets both she almost certainly is winning Wisconsin too in which case she gets up to 278 electoral votes and gets the presidency.

Blitzer: What are some keys in both states

Blitzer: Well in Ohio it comes down to really whether or not Senator Clinton's strength in Northern and North East Ohio can offset the rest of the state and thats usually how Ohio is usually decided. Pennsylvania is more interesting as the state dynamics usually work like this: the Democrats win big in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Scranton while Republicans usually win big in the rural areas of the state as well as the outer suburbs of Philadelphia.

What tends to decide the state or more the inner suburbs of those Philadelphia , Pittsburgh and Scranton and as we know Senator Clinton hopes to make inroads in the inner suburbs of Philadelphia where voters may be put off by the religious conservatism of Senator Bush, while Senator Bush wants to make inroads in these Scranton Suburbs where Senator Bush believes he can do better than President McCain did 4 years ago due to the Biden effect no longer being there. Some counties we will be looking at for both are Montgomery County, PA for Senator Clinton and Luzerne County, PA for Senator Bush.


Blitzer: Ok so lets talk about different paths for both Senator Bush and Senator Clinton. So what is one of the paths we will be watching

King: Well lets for the sake of this hypothetical give Senator Bush the states of Ohio while giving Senator Clinton Pennsylvania and if you do that you get to both Senator Clinton and Bush having 248 Electoral votes a piece with only 42 electoral left and both candidates needing 21 to get over the top. So now lets say the Nader factor is a little less than expected so Senator Clinton gets both Oregon and Wisconsin while Senator Bush gets both Kentucky and New Mexico and what you get to is Senator Clinton having 265 Electoral votes compared to 261 for Senator Bush and you get to a scenario where Missouri will decided the entire ball game. Keep in mind Missouri is a state that has voted with the winner all but one time in the past 100 years and in this case the Missouri Bellwether like people like to call it will decide the election

Blitzer: Which is why both Senator Bush and Clinton are holding their final rallies there. So John many have brought up Ralph Nader especially when talking about the states of Wisconsin and Oregon so what are some of the numbers we will be looking for when it comes to him.

King: I will tell you this, if Ralph Nader gets less than 4% in Oregon or less than 3% in Wisconsin than Senator Clinton will win those states but if he gets more than 6% in Oregon and say more than 4.5% in Wisconsin Senator Bush will win those states. So as you can tell the sweet spot in both those states will be 5% in Oregon and around 3.75% in Wisconsin in which case both states will be extremely tight and we will be up counting all night for them.

Blitzer: Lastly there do seem to be many scenarios where both candidates can get to 269

King: Yes there are many scenarios and let me just give you the simplest one and that is say Senator Bush Wins both Pennsylvania and Ohio he gets to 269 and if Senator Clinton sweeps the rest she gets to 269. If that is the case well then the election will be ended up throwing to the house where keep in mind each state delegation will only have 1 vote and right now are house battleground tracker shows that is a complete tossup as well.

Blitzer: Yes and we will be keeping track of that as well along with the House results. One thing we do now is that tomorrow will be the most exciting night and most likely the closest election anyone has seen since 1960 and we hope you join us for that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ok have opened up voting and the prediction contest . So please post this for each one :


Presidential : The Electoral Map

Senatorial: Who wins each Battleground Race

House: What the final house margin will be

Governor: Who wins the Delaware Race


So Presidential will be obviously weighed the most and will get 50% of the weightage, the Senate getting 30%, the House getting 15% and Governor race will get 5%.

Tie Breaker will go to whoever's presidential map came closer to accurate

[Politician]

Presidential map:

Senate map (Hunt wins NC-Special)

House: Democrats win around 220 seats

Delaware Governor: Biden wins

[OSR stands with Israel]

http://

Presidential map:

Senate map (Hunt wins NC-Special)

House: Democrats win around 220 seats

Delaware Governor: Biden wins

Did you mean to have NE-2 as Republican and for Senate to have Oregon as Republican Hold rather than Democratic Hold

[hurricanehink]

Clinton wins last-minute deciders, with better performances than polling suggested in Nevada, Colorado, and N'Ampshire.



Hope I did this right. The GA special is for the NC-special, where both Democrats win, despite the Republican winning at the Presidential level. This would be the first time since 1948 that one party won both the special and regular senate seats while losing the presidential vote.

[2016]

Prediction

President

Popular Vote

Hillary Clinton 49 %
George W. Bush 47 %
Nader 3 %
Others 1 %

Hillary Clinton 271 (ME-2, PA, OR, NM, WI)
George W. Bush 267 (OH, MO, KY)

Senate

Democrats 52
Republicans 48

Mitch McConnell gets reelected in Kentucky because of GWB coattails!
Hagan & Hunt win in North Carolina
Mark Warner wins in Virginia
The Udall Brothers get elected in CO & NM respectivly
New Hampshire John E. Sununu gets narrowly reelected
Stevens gets narrowly reelected in Alaska
Nikki Haley becomes a Senator and will be one of the youngest Senator in the entire Country.
Christine Todd Whitman will get reelected surprisingly in NJ. Democrats blame Buono to be a tremendous bad Candidate for that loss
Wicker will get elected in Mississippi

Beau Biden will get elected as Delaware Governor

House

Democrats 225
Republicans 210

The CNN Panel of Carville, Begala, Bob Bennett, Alex Castellanos will all agree that Hillary won because of the Gender Gap in Key Swing States.

Bennett repeats his famous quote from the OTL "Look, the Country has grown up here".

[Andrew Yang 2024]

[2016]

One thing I am actually keenly interested this Election Night is what is Hillary Clinton going to do with College educated White Women.
PA and the Counties like Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery come into my mind.

John King correctly pointed out that Republicans trend to do well in the suburban collar counties around Philly but if Hillary overperforms with this Demographic that could be the ballgame in PA and elsewhere because you find those types of Voters in suburban St. Louis & Kansas City and also in Delaware County just outside of Columbus, Ohio.

Kentucky, although I firmly believe Bush will take it, will be a lot closer compared to the OTL when Bush beat Gore and Kerry there comfortably. What are the margins in Jefferson (Louisville), Fayette (Lexington) and Franklin (Frankfort). How well will Hillary do in the eastern Counties in Kentucky along the West Virginia Border given Senator Rockefeller is her Running Mate?

 Bush I think will do very well in Western Kentucky which will end up giving him the State I think.

[OSR stands with Israel]

hurricanehink dm me to clarify his Senate Predictions and he said his prediction is he thinks Democrats win all the battlegrounds except MS and SC.

[President Johnson]

That would be my prediction:

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2008(Exit Polls)



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DITO8F3KUlE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: The polls are about to close in the first states tonight marking an end to one of the most exciting elections we have seen in our lifetime. We will have a large panel tonight for what is shaping up to be a very long night to analyze the results , and we will be going to Campbell Brown and John King over at the magic wall to get a deep dive into the results themselves from each individual county to give us a good indicator how the math is shaping up . First though lets go over to Soledad O'Brien and Bill Schnider for the results ouf our exit poll


O'Brien: So BIll what are our exit polls showing

Schnider: Well they are showing what the pre-election polls did and that is a very very tight race. Now lets take a deeper dive

Race:

White: 76% ; Bush 55% Clinton 41% Nader 3%
African American: 11%; Clinton 89% Bush 10% Nader 1%
Hispanic: 9% ; Clinton 57% Bush 39% Nader 3%
Asian: 2% ; Clinton 52% Bush 45% Nader 2%
Other: 2% ; Clinton 56% Bush 40% Nader 4%

Gender:

Male: 47% ; Bush 52% Hillary 45% Nader 3%
Female 53%; Clinton 52% Bush 46% Nader 2%

Age:

18-29: 17% ; Clinton 50% Bush 44% Nader 5%
30-44: 29% ; Bush 49% Clinton 48% Nader 3%
45-64: 37% ; Bush 50% Clinton 48% Nader 2%
65+: 17% ; Clinton 49% Bush 48% Nader 2%

Income:

0-30k: 20% ; Clinton 57% Bush 39% Nader 4%
30-75k: 41%; Clinton 48% Bush 48% Nader 3%
75k-150k: 27%; Bush 52% Clinton 44% Nader 3%
150k+: 12%; Bush 55% Clinton 43% Nader 2%

Schinder: As you can see Senator Clinton has made inroads from Senator Biden's numbers from 4 years ago across the board but if you add these numbers up you pretty much get a tied result so we are in for the long hall.

O'Brien: An interesting number to see is Americans making between 30 thousand to 75 thousand dollars a year and it pretty much is a dead heat.

Schinder: Yes those voters are working class to middle class voters who usually swing elections and while the income range for that has of course changed over the years what has not changed is they usually vote very similarly to the overall national result.

O'Brien: Are there any indicators for how different battleground states will vote with those numbers

Schnider: It is still way to early to say but I would say we could be waiting a while for the results in the Missouri which could to decide the election, will have to see how Ralph Nader effects states like Oregon and Wisconsin and given those Hispanic Numbers my guess is New Mexico also will be a nail biter.

O'Brien : So pretty much the outline John King gave yesterday

Schinder: Pretty much but remember these exit polls have a margin of error and states like Ohio, Pennsylvania should still be very close and could go either way.

Blitzer: Ok we will take a break and will be back in a few minutes for the first poll closures

[2016]

This is going to be a very loooooong Night.

I have to say though Bush being tied with Clinton among Seniors is not good News for him.

However Clinton only getting 89 % of the African American Vote ain't good News for her.

The Hispanic Vote ticked up so maybe CNN moving NV to Bush could be a bit premature. Certainly good News for Hillary in New Mexico.

Let's see some Numbers from the States particularly the Swing States though.

Looking at it Nationally this is looking a lot like ala Bush vs Gore in 2000 in the OTL.