The Presidency of America's Maverick

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Clinton ‘08.

[OSR stands with Israel]

George W Bush's Vice Presidential Shortlist:

Brown: Senator Bush's team just released his shortlist for who he is picking as his running mate. So John what are some of the strengths and weaknesses for each one, first with Governor Romney

Mitt Romney:



Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mitt_Romney_by_Gage_Skidmore_6_cropped.jpg

King: Well some things he would bring to the ticket is Governor Romney would really give Senator Bush credibility on the healthcare issue given the Governor's record with Romneycare which could be beneficial among swing voters this fall. Romney also could help the ticket with more socially moderate voters as well .

Brown: What are some weaknesses

King: Some weakness are given he is from Massachusetts he wont be able to move any particular states directly into the Bush column on the battleground map as lets be real, Massachusetts is going Democrats no matter what and New Hampshire is a state Senator Bush will probably win anyway. Also his history of being considered a flip flopper on certain issues could hurt the campaign as well and in a close election any factor matters.

Bill Frist:



Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bill_Frist_official_photo.jpg

King: Picking Senator Frist means if Senator Clinton does not pick Senator Ford as her running mate than Tennessee will probably be a state that will lean towards Senator Bush and even if she does pick Senator Ford, it means that it will remain a battleground rather than a state leaning towards her. He likely would also help the ticket in other southern states and could make winning Florida very difficult for the Democrats . He also generally is someone who is liked by both moderates and conservatives which means very few people in the GOP will dislike this pick

Brown: What about some weaknesses

King: Well on the flip side he likely will not be able to brings any enthusiasm to the ticket which in an election as close as this one is shaping up to be could be a potential downfall for Senator Bush.

Tim Pawlenty:



Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tim_Pawlenty_official_photo.jpg

King: Picking Governor Pawlenty would likely help Senator Bush make the case that he wants an outsider perspective to Washington given he is neither a senator nor a Wall Street guy like Mitt Romney and in open elections its always helpful to be able to make that case. Also he probably would help Senator Bush out a lot in a place like Minnesota and maybe even neighboring Wisconsin and Iowa .

Brown : What are some weaknesses

King: One is that Senator Pawlenty lacks foreign policy experience and given the fact that issues such as the War on Terror, China/Russia policy, trade will likely all be discussed in this election that inexperience could really hurt him especially in a debate. Also he is not very charismatic either so he could hurt Senator Bush's attempts to increase turnout which again could be crucial in an election like this

Bobby Jindal:



Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bobby_Jindal,_official_109th_Congressional_photo.jpg

King: Well first thing is he would likely take Louisiana of the table for the Democrats and potentially even make Arkansas a true battleground state. He also likely would help energize the conservative base greatly as many conservative talk show hosts believe he is the future of the party and due to that are lobbying Senator Bush to pick Senator Jindal as his running mate. Lastly Senator Bush from the outset has made it a priority in his campaign to not only consolidate the gains the GOP has made over the past decade with immigrant voters but to expand upon them and given the fact Senator Jindal background of being born to immigrant parents could help him do that.

Brown: What are some weaknesses

King: Well the fact is while he could help energize the conservative base , he could hurt the ticket among moderate independent voters which are crucial in the Midwest, North East and also the Pacific Northwest and the fact is Republicans cannot win the white house with just the South and Interior West alone so that could be a potential downfall for the ticket.


Brown: We surely will be watching who gets picked

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: North Carolina Senator John Edwards after reveal that he had an extra marital affair with a former campaign worker:



Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:John_Edwards,_official_Senate_photo_portrait.jpg

Blitzer: We have some breaking news to report to you and that is former Presidential Candidate and North Carolina Senator John Edwards has resigned after it was revealed he had an extra marital affair with a former campaign worker even though his wife currently is dealing with cancer. While he originally refused to resign, after days of pressure he has decided to resign his senate seat in a remarkable fall from grace. So what type of pressure was that

Schneider: We are told the reason he retired though was that that Senate Leaders from both parties threatened to open an investigation into the manner in the ethics committee which could lead to potential expulsion and even if it didnt, it would likely have led to much worse embarrassment. There are already rumors that Senator Edwards potentially fathered a child with Mrs.Hunter and an ethics committee investigation could have revealed even more.


Former North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt appointed to fill disgraced former Senator John Edwards vacant senate seat:



Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Jim_Hunt_official_portrait_(cropped).jpg


Cooper: North Carolina Governor Michael Easley has announced he will be filling the vacated seat of former Senator John Edwards with former North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt. Given how close we are to the general election, the North Carolina legislature also passed a new special election law recently which creates a jungle primary system for special elections.

The jungle primary for this senate seat will be held on November 4th with the Presidential Election and if no candidate gets over 50% there will be a runoff election on January 13th of next year between the top 2 candidates.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: Hillary Clinton Selects West Virginia Senator Jay Rockefeller as her running mate



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9Xqe7Xy1mk


Blitzer: We have some breaking news to share and that is Senator Hillary Clinton and the Presumptive Democratic Nominee for President has selected West Virginia Senator Jay Rockefeller to be her running mate meaning that Senator Rockefeller will once again be the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee. Now lets go over to Pittsburgh where Senator Clinton is set to introduce him

Clinton: Thank You Thank You. As all of you may know one of the most important jobs a Presidential Nominee can make is selecting their running mate as if they win that person will represent our great nation as its Vice President. It is why it is my high honor to announce to you all that I have decided to select West Virginia Senator Jay Rockefeller as my running mate(Applause). Senator Rockefeller has spent a lifetime fighting for the average working person in West Virginia to make sure every person can have access to decent healthcare and to give every person a fair shot at being successful and that is exactly the type of person we need in a Vice President(Applause). Now lets give it up for the next Vice President of the United States Jay Rockefeller

Rockefeller: Thank You Thank You Thank You. I want to start of by thanking Senator Clinton for selecting me as her running mate and for giving me the high honor of potentially representing this great nation as its next Vice President. As I have said it before , we need to implement policies to make sure that every American regardless of income has access to decent healthcare as healthcare is a human right(Applause) and as someone who has worked with Senator Clinton not only as her colleague in the senate but also when she was first lady, I can tell you that their is no greater fighter for universal healthcare in this country than Hillary Clinton(Applause) . The same applies for education, childcare and ensuring we create a good economy that benefits everyone in this country and not just the people who are rich as a Rockefeller(Laughter) and that is exactly why we must elect Senator Hillary Clinton as our next President(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Blitzer: There you have it, the now Presumptive Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee . So Bill some are surprised Senator Clinton picked him again over Senator Ford

Schnider: We are told the reason Senator Ford did not get picked was due to the fact that his positions on issues like the Federal Marriage Amendment which he supported was a deal breaker for Senator Clinton's camp which is why she decided to pick Senator Rockefeller in the end.

[LAB-LIB]

Jay Rockefeller is a great choice for VP and love Jim Hunt for the Senate. That will be one of the biggest single party upgrades for a Senate seat.

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 DNC: Democrats put their hopes behind a Clinton once again in hopes of bringing their party out of the wilderness

Notable Speakers:

Former President Bill Clinton: Talked about how Hillary has been fighting for struggling families since the time she has been in law school all the way till her time as tenure as first lady and senator. Also slammed the Republicans attacks against her and hammered the economic record of the past 8 years.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi: Talked about the need to give House control back to the Democrats

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid: Talked about the need to give Senate control back to the Democrats

Senator Joe Biden: Talked about Hillary's foreign policy experience and how she will help the US meet the challenges abroad in the 21st century

Businessman Donald Trump: Talked about how strong of a leader Hillary was , and how bad of a president George W Bush would be

Senator Russ Feingold: Energized progressives by talking about need to pass universal healthcare and in programs to help poor families

Senator Mark Pyror: Talked about his friendship with Hillary Clinton and her dedication to helping the working family out

New Mexico Bill Richardson: Talked about need to to implement a comphrensive energy plan for the future and why Hillary Clinton was the best candidate to implement it

Excerpts of Jay Rockefeller Speech accepting the Vice Presidential Nomination:



Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-rockefeller-idUSBRE90A0P620130111

Rockefeller: Thank You Thank You. It is a great honor to once again be nominated for Vice President and I once again accept your nomination(Applause) and I also have to tell you that this time I have the feeling we will win(Standing Ovation). Throughout our party history we have had one principle that has united us and that is we believe that a thriving society is one that does not require someone to be a Rockefeller to be successful(Applause). It is thanks to laws passed by Democratic administrations such as Child Labor Laws, the 8 hour work day, the minimum wage, social security and the new deal, Medicare/Medicaid and so much more that we were able to create the greatest middle class in the history of the world(Applause) but if we want to maintain it we must continue that legacy which is why we must elect Senator Hillary Clinton as our next President(Applause).

Senator Clinton will fight to ensure every American regardless of income can have access to basic healthcare(Applause) and if people doubt her let me tell you that I would not have accepted this nomination without seeing her passion for this issue all the way back in 1993 before she was even a politician(Applause). Senator Clinton will also fight for working families by advocating for laws to reform our childcare system to make child care affordable for every family in America and to ensure that mothers can get paid maternity leave time off(Applause). It wont be easy but if we want to remain the nation with the greatest middle class it is what we must do and that is why we need to elect Senator Hillary Clinton as our next President(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts of Hillary Clinton's Speech accepting the Democratic Nomination:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=268ncnoitEc

Clinton: Thank You Thank You. It is a great honor to be selected as the nominee of this great party that has produced so many great presidents in the past century from Woodrow Wilson to FDR to Harry Truman to John Kennedy to my Husband Bill Clinton and I accept your nomination(Standing Ovation).  It is also great to be here in the beautiful Portland, Oregon and I want to thank this great city for hosting our convention and I can tell you I have the feeling that we will win back this great state this November on our pathway to retaking back the White House(Applause). The Republicans 8 years ago inherited the greatest economy in the history of the world and instead of building upon that have brought us a period of economic stagnation and recession and it is time we change that back to prosperity(Applause).

To do that though we must finally accomplish Harry Truman's dream of universal healthcare as basic healthcare is something that should be accessible to everyone regardless of income and doing so will also free up many Americans to spend more of their money on our economy which will then lead to economic growth(Applause). We will also ask the wealthy and large corporations to pay a little more in taxes to ensure we can make the investments in alternative energy, and create good paying manufacturing jobs here in the US(Applause) as investing in America means we will have a stronger middle class(Applause) which also will mean large corporations will make more profit than they do now so it will be a win win for everyone in our country(Applause).

To do this though we must first win this election and that means not only take back the White House but by taking back control of Congress so we can pass this agenda into law(Applause). It will not be easy but I am confident that we can get this done and truly make our nation better than it ever was before. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Hillary Clinton takes 6 point lead in polls after convention bounce:




King: Senator Clinton just had a huge convention bounce going in the polls taking a race that was tied at 45% a piece to now holding a 50% to 44% poll and as you can see that has caused many many states to move into her column. Now as a fair warning many of the light red states on here likely will move back to tossup after the RNC but if the election was held say tomorrow this is what the battleground map would look like.

Now Senator Bush is set to name his running mate tomorrow and with the RNC taking place just a few days later, its very likely this bump wont last for long but I would say this is around the bump Senator Clinton would want and now puts pressure on Senator Bush to do the likewise.

[2016]

No matter how big of a bounce Senator George W. Bush gets I am pretty confident Democrats will win the Popular Vote this time. The first Female Presidential Nominee will likely create an even bigger Gender Gap then this TL had for 2000 & 2004 enabling Hillary to get the most Votes.

That being said it's far less certain she gets an Electoral Vote Victory. I feel this could be a split just like in the OTL in 2000.

Of Course we will have to see how President McCain handles the Lehman Brothers Collapse and how Senator Bush responds to it. Democrats definitly have the winds on their backs this time I feel.

Nightmare Scenario is we have an 269-269 Tie the Day after E-Day.

[OSR stands with Israel]

No matter how big of a bounce Senator George W. Bush gets I am pretty confident Democrats will win the Popular Vote this time. The first Female Presidential Nominee will likely create an even bigger Gender Gap then this TL had for 2000 & 2004 enabling Hillary to get the most Votes.

That being said it's far less certain she gets an Electoral Vote Victory. I feel this could be a split just like in the OTL in 2000.

Of Course we will have to see how President McCain handles the Lehman Brothers Collapse and how Senator Bush responds to it. Democrats definitly have the winds on their backs this time I feel.

Nightmare Scenario is we have an 269-269 Tie the Day after E-Day.

I wont tell much but the collapse of Lehman will be sort of delayed in this TL given the Fed was slightly more aggressive here so the bubble wasnt as bad. It will still happen as I think it was unavoidable but just not in 2008 this time but the economy is still not good as the 2007 recession in this TL was an early 1990s style recession

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: George W Bush selects former Tennessee Senator Bill Frist as his running mate



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VzGSOZTS3U

Blitzer: We have some breaking news to report to you and that is Senator George W Bush and the presumptive Republican Nominee has selected former Tennessee Senator Bill Frist as his running mate. Now lets go to Jacksonville , Florida where Senator Bush is about to choose his running mate

Bush: Thank You Thank You. Now as everyone knows selecting a running mate is one of if not the most important decision a Presidential Nominee can make as if they win that person will represent our great nation as its Vice President. As I have said it is important that such a person is someone who the President can count on to be trustworthy, loyal, qualified , and of course someone who is willing to tell you in private when they believe you are wrong(Applause) and I can tell you that in the process of finding one ,there were many people who met that criteria but only one I believe met all of them the most. That person was Bill Frist who I am pleased to announce will be my running mate for this election and if we win the next Vice President of America(Applause). Senator Frist in his 12 years in the senate showed his ability to work in a bipartisan manner to make the reforms America needed and unlike many politicians kept his promise to leave after 2 terms and that is the type of integrity we need in a Vice President(Applause). Now it is my high honor to introduce my running mate and the next Vice President of the United States, Bill Frist(Applause).

Frist: I want to start of by thanking Senator Bush for giving me the high honor to be his running mate and potentially represent this great nation of ours as its Vice President(Applause). In the 4 years Senator Bush and I served in the senate together I also saw how passionate he was on addressing issues such as education reform and his willingness to work in a bipartisan nature to do that and that is something we need in our next President(Applause). It is imperative that we not only continue President McCain's accomplishments from the past 8 years but build upon them to make our country a safer and more prosperous place and that is what I intend to help Senator Bush do during this campaign and if elected as Vice President as well(Applause). Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Blitzer: With that Senator Bill Frist can now be called the Presumptive Republican Vice Presidential Nominee and will officially become the Vice Presidential Nominee next week.

[Politician]

I would definitely support Clinton in this TL

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I suspect Hillary will narrowly win in 2008 but lose to Romney in 2012.

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Same. Anyone but Bush

[LAB-LIB]

Like where this is going, but I have to ask, who are the candidates in the North Carolina special Senate election? Is Jim Hunt one of them?

[BigVic]

Hillary has Bills’s coalition holding up entering the 2008 fall campaign

[OSR stands with Israel]

Like where this is going, but I have to ask, who are the candidates in the North Carolina special Senate election? Is Jim Hunt one of them?

Here are some of the major candidates for the jungle primaries :

Democrats: Jim Hunt is the only major democratic candidate running

Republicans: Richard Burr , James Snyder, Fred Smith

Of course given the jungle primary system there will be a lot of randos too but these are the major candidates.

Polling right now shows Hunt slightly over 50% which means he’d win in round 1 but there is still a little more than 2 months left so it’s not a lock yet

[Tron1993]

I just hope we get 2 terms of Hillary

[President Johnson]

Hillary is probably going to win by a similar margin than Obama did IRL 2012.

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Well, I guess- Hillary/Rockefeller ‘08! Hillary/Rockefeller ‘12! Rockefeller ‘16!

[OSR stands with Israel]

2008 RNC: Republicans rally around Bush in hopes of extending their tenure in power

Notable Speakers:

President McCain: See Below

Speaker John Boehner: Talked about the need for the House to remain in Republicans hands

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: Talked about the need for the Senate to remain in Republican Hands

Florida Senator Jeb Bush: Talked about Bush's passion for Educational Issues and how he has worked in both those areas as Governor and Senator. Also talked about Bush's willingness to work with members of either party to get things done

New York Governor Rudy Giuliani: Talked about how Bush will keep the nation safe and help continue the success in the war on terrorism

Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney: Talked about how Bush's energy policy will help make the US energy independent and how he will help fix the healthcare system

Louisiana Senator Bobby Jindal: Energized the conservative base by talking about how Bush will keep Americans proud of their nation and keep it as the greatest nation in the world

Los Angeles Mayor Arnold Schwarzenegger: Energized crowd with his immigrant story and by talking about the American Dream and why Bush will help maintain it

Excerpts of President McCain's speech to the RNC :



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pv1p5nArhhY


McCain: Thank You Thank You. 8 years ago when I spoke to you at our convention, I pledged to you and to the American people that if you gave our party the keys to power that we would work to reform Washington and transfer power back from the special interests, bureaucrats and give it back to you the people and that is what we have done over the past 8 years(Applause). From campaign finance reform, to tort reform, to tax reform we can say that we were successful in doing so(Applause). These successes also led us to be able to pass important reforms in areas including immigration, energy and now we must build upon these achievements which is why it is imperative that we elect Senator George W Bush as the next President of the United States(Applause).

It is also imperative that we elect Senator Bush to the presidency because he understands better than anyone why it is important to ensure the US takes an assertive role in dealing with threats such as terrorism as if we dont act nobody else will(Applause). It is thanks to the greatest military in the history of the world that we have decimated the power of Al-Qaeda, removed the Taliban from power in Afghanistan and liberate Iraq and help create a democracy in the middle east(Applause). If we listened to critics who believed we should have waited for the UN to act before we acted, I can tell you that the people of Iraq would still be under the tyranny of Suddam Hussain and the region and the world would be much more unsafe for it(Applause). On this matter only one of the two candidates in this election stood firm on this principle and that person is George W Bush(Applause) which is another reason why we must elect him our next president.

Now as a Cardinals fan it is weird for me to thank Seattle given they are our divisional rivals, I do want to thank them for hosting this great convention of ours(Applause) which I am sure will lead to victory in November including maybe in the great state of Washington as well(Applause). It wont be easy but lets all put in the work needed on this campaign so we can win(Applause). Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America(Applause).


Excerpts of Bill Frist's Speech Accepting the Republican Vice Presidential Nomination:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CINGzuM_vD4

Frist: Thank You Thank You. It is a great honor to be nominated by this great party that has produced many great Vice Presidents such as Hannibal Hamlin, Teddy Roosevelt, George HW Bush, and of course our current vice President John Danforth and I accept your nomination(Applause). While the role of Vice President has changed over this period, what has not changed is the fact that our party through all this time has stood firmly for a strong United States with a government of the people , by the people and for the people not a government of the bureaucrats, by the bureaucrats and for the bureaucrats(Applause and Laughter) which is what the Democrats have stood for during this entire time(Boos). It is why we are proud to have stood by President John McCain over the past 8 years to ensure we can win the war on terror and make the reforms needed to return the power to the people(Applause) and I also am proud to have worked with Senator George W Bush to have helped the President achieve all he has achieved .

Now we must not only continue the achievements from the last 8 years but build upon them and I know no better man to get that done than George W Bush(Standing Ovation). As Governor of Texas , Senator Bush worked with a Democratic legislature to pass important reforms to the state's educational system, welfare system, pass a measure that cracks down on criminals(Applause) and as President will fight to improve our educational system all across America to make sure no child is left behind(Applause). He will fight against the urges to impose new taxes and regulations as Senator Bush believes its entrepreneurs of this country who create jobs and not the government(Applause), will fight to increase competition in our healthcare system to reduce costs(Applause) and maintain a strong defense cause Senator Bush believes a strong America is what will make both our nation and the world a safer place which is why we need to elect him as our next President(Standing Ovation). Thank You, May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Excerpts of George W Bush's speech Accepting the Republican Nomination for President:



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LDsp67eKaI

Bush: Thank You Thank You. It is a great honor to be nominated by this great party that has produced many great presidents such as Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, my father George HW Bush and John McCain and I accept your nomination(Applause). For the past 8 years President McCain has done a fantastic job in reducing the threat of terrorism all across the world, freeing millions people who lived under tyrants and here at home made the reforms needed to transfer power from the special interests and Washington back to the American people(Applause) and I look forward to building upon those achievements as your next President(Standing Ovation).

In this election we have a clear choice of whether or not we want to build upon these achievements or whether we want to turn back the clock to a time when politicians, bureaucrats in DC's only goal was to increase their own power and turn back the clock to a time when the US deferred national security decisions to international organizations (Boos) and that is a choice we just cannot afford(Standing Ovation). If we want to address issues facing our educational system we need to empower parents and teachers instead of agency administrators(Applause), if we want to lower our healthcare costs we need to increase competition for consumers not limit it through new government mandates(Applause), and if we need to grow our economy we need to incentivize entrepreneurship not stifle it through governmental taxation and regulation(Applause). If we want to create a world where nations like Russia and China become responsible players in world affairs we need strong and assertive US leadership not deferential(Applause) .

It is why if we want to achieve all these things I ask that you not only vote for Senator Frist and I by voting for Republicans in Congress and at your state and local level as well this November(Applause). While we may have disagreements on the approach we should take in getting to this point, what matters is getting to that point and that is what I intend to fight for on this campaign and if we win to fight for as your President(Standing Ovation). Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America.


Election once again a pure tossup after Bush gets his convention bounce:



Clinton/Rockefeller 199 47%
Bush/Frist 187 46%
Nader/Gonzalez 2%

King: As you can see the bounces from the DNC and RNC pretty much cancelled each other out though Senator Clinton did slightly come out of this slightly ahead as prior tossup states like New Jersey and West Virginia now lean in her favor while Senator Bush was only able to move Tennessee from the tossup column to now leaning his way.

Blitzer: Are there any states you think on this map would tilt one way or the other if we were being a little less cautious with these battleground maps

King: Yes there are as we probably would be able to move Minnesota and Washington despite the RNC being held here and the Nader factor from Tossup to Leaning Democratic which would get Senator Clinton up to 220 Electoral votes while we probably  move Florida from Tossup to Leaning Republican which would get Senator Bush up to 214 Electoral votes.

Blitzer: That would still leave a pretty large battleground and both candidates very close

King: Oh yes a 6 electoral gap is pretty much nothing and it would still leave 104 electoral votes that are truly up for grabs which is a pretty big number. This election is truly anyone's game and really no one can know how this race will end up.

[OSR stands with Israel]

State of Race Before Debate:

Blitzer: With a few days left till the debates lets look at our battleground map and as you can see we have moved Florida into the Lean Bush column and Washington into Lean Clinton column.



Bush/Frist 214 46%
Clinton/Rockefeller 210 46%
Nader/Gonzalez 3

King: Yes it seems like the Jeb Bush factor has helped Senator Bush in Florida while it seems like Senator Feingold has helped Clinton out with some progressives in Washington who otherwise would have gone to Nader and Trump has helped out in New Jersey where they have done joint rallies.

Blitzer: So David what are some keys going into the debate for both candidates that could help either pull away

Gergen: Well given the state of the race, I will say there are many potential strategies Senators Clinton and Bush can take for these set of the debates. The first is they can take a more cautious approach which will not change the fundamentals of this campaign much and if thats the case not much will change in the polls and we likely will head into election day with nobody knowing who the winner will be.

Now another strategy is either Senator Clinton or Senator Bush can try to take a more aggressive approach in the hopes of using the debates to grab the momentum and blow this race wide open but the risk is that if such a strategy fails then which ever candidate uses such a strategy will be the one who collapses in the polls. You probably will get a mix of both in my opinion and with 3 presidential debates and one VP one you probably could get different results in different debates .


Blitzer: We will certainly be watching

[2016]

@OSR,
I would have moved Minnesota into the Clinton Column as well. There is no way Hillary ain't going to win that State. It's a State that even Walter Mondale & Michael Dukakis managed to win in the OTL!

[OSR stands with Israel]

@OSR,
I would have moved Minnesota into the Clinton Column as well. There is no way Hillary ain't going to win that State. It's a State that even Walter Mondale & Michael Dukakis managed to win in the OTL!

Keep in mind that pundits usually tend to overestimate the GOP in Minnesota and so does polling I believe as well. Atlas ITTL probably would be more accurate about what the tossup states are in relation to the national environment than CNN is.

You can just imagine how BRTD would be complaining on Atlas on how much CNN and the polls are overestimating Bush's chances in Minnesota

[2016]

@OSR,
I would have moved Minnesota into the Clinton Column as well. There is no way Hillary ain't going to win that State. It's a State that even Walter Mondale & Michael Dukakis managed to win in the OTL!

Keep in mind that pundits usually tend to overestimate the GOP in Minnesota and so does polling I believe as well. Atlas ITTL probably would be more accurate about what the tossup states are in relation to the national environment than CNN is.

You can just imagine how BRTD would be complaining on Atlas on how much CNN and the polls are overestimating Bush's chances in Minnesota

Keep in mind though that Bush won't win 44-45 % of the Hispanic Vote like he did in the OTL against Kerry in 2004 against Clinton in 2008 so I am a bit puzzled you have NM & NV as Toss Ups.

The Map is a lot tougher for Senator Bush than for Senator Clinton.

I think Clinton will eventually win MN, NM, NV, OR, PA and ME-2 which would give 259.

I think Bush will eventually win LA, KY, MO which would get him to 242. If he wins OH & IA like he did in 2004 that gets him to 269.

If Clinton wins Wisconsin guess what we have then, a 269-269 Tie.

I think 269-269 is legitimately in play here.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Summary of the First Presidential Debate:



Source: https://apnews.com/article/f8aeb6fc3fc76ef11bca1d6368afb4f9

Key Moment 1:

Lehrer: As you may know the current administration has rachted up sanctions against the Iranians and Syrians calling the regimes state sponsor of terrorism. So Senator Clinton do you think these sanctions are the correct move and if not what would you differently

Clinton: Jim it is not about whether the increased sanctions are the correct or wrong approach but whether the overall strategy is correct and in my opinion they are not. The fact is this current administration has been to reliant on a stick only approach in world affairs and while that has worked in some instances, we have to understand that Iran and Syria are not Iraq. First and foremost the fact is the Iranians and Syrians have far more allies than the Iraqi did which will help them avoid some of the severity of our sanctions and number two we have to remember that we had to go to war in order to deal with the Iraqi threat and while sometimes war is unavoidable it is something we should try our best to avoid.

My belief is we rather should offer them a carrot and stick approach where we offer to drop the sanctions in exchange for them stopping to fund global terrorism and ending their nuclear programs. This will give them an incentive to do this and also would put pressure on them from some of their allies to do so as well which is why that is the approach I would use against Syria.

Bush: Jim I am 100% behind the President's policies regarding Syria and Iran as the fact is the Syrians and Iranians are a rouge state sponsor of terrorism and is not a regime that can be trusted by any means. This idea that we can negotiate with rouge states is just not true and we should make it clear that the only way we will drop their sanctions on them is if they full end their nuclear program, start working with rest of the world on the war on terrorism and actually start to be a legitimate state in the world

Lehrer: Would you authorize military strikes against either regime

Bush: If that is needed to address a particular threat yes as the fact is we cannot take any option of the table. Before doing so I would consult with our generals, the secretary of defense , and the national security council and if they think it is needed to deal with a particular threat then we will use it, otherwise we will not use it.

Clinton: I also agree we cannot take any option of the table but the question is not whether we take options of the table or not but whether we can ensure we can keep as many non military options on the table as possible which is why I believe the US should engage with our allies as well as their allies in order to lessen the threat they pose. The fact is we were very close to potentially having to go to war with Iran in 2006 and while thankfully it did not escalate to such a level, I do not want us to be in a similar situation as we may not be so fortunate next time.

Bush: My opinion is again the President handled the crises we faced in Iran and Syria two years ago in the correct way as we were able to destroy multiple WMD sites in Syria without resulting in full scale war and keep in mind we did not use military action against Iran then. The fact is like any good leader the President discussed all potential options with his team which is something I will do as President as well.

Lehrer: Moving on

Important Moment 2:
Lehrer: As you may know both the Russians and Chinese are major rising powers and what is concerning is both nations are considered authoritarian so Senator Bush if you are elected President what would be your plan to address this

Bush: Jim it is critical that we can ensure that Russia and China become responsible players on the world stage and the way we do that is by leading with example and by setting red lines. We must tell them upfront if you cross certain lines, these will be the consequences of doing so but on the other hand if you become a more responsible player their will be some rewards as well and make clear what both would be. The fact is we cannot rely on the United Nations for this as both Russia and China have a veto power over resolutions in the UN and number 2 we cannot just wait for other nations because as the leader of the free world it is our responsibility to lead by example and not theirs.

Clinton: My belief is one we must work with our allies in Europe and also improve our relations with nations all across the Pacific and Asia to ensure that the United States becomes their top allies and not Russia or China. Doing so would then give us leverage over future negotiations relating to trade and many other issues and would give them an incentive to become responsible players. The problem with Senator Bush's problem is the fact is we cannot solve every problem in the world with an unilateral approach as the fact is all it would do is alienate important allies such as Germany, France, South Korea and Japan and that is something we cannot afford.

Bush: The issue with Senator Clinton's approach is again it uses the approach of leading from behind rather than example. Let me tell you this and that is if the United States does not stand up nobody will which means we will see a world where Russia and China rise without having to be responsible players and that is not a world we want to see. Dealing with them when they reach that point will be far harder which is why I think we should begin to use our influence to counter some of the problematic actions they take globally and incentivize them to take more responsible actions.

Clinton: Well the question comes how will we do that without getting Germany, France, South Korea , Japan on the board because the fact is we cannot under any circumstastance implement any sort of policy without getting any support from other nations cause then Russia or China can just sign trade deals with those nations and leave us out. If we want to have leverage in trade negotiations or any future negotiations we must work with our allies and build relations with other nations and that is what I would do as President

Lehrer: Moving On


Important Moment 3:

Lehrer: Senator Clinton given that you voted against the Central American Trade Agreement , what are some changes you would make from present trade policy and what are some things you would keep the same

Clinton: Well Jim the reason I voted against the Central American Trade Agreement is the fact that it did not have strong enough protections for workers and I would not agree to any trade deals that would put workers at too much of a disadvantage and is tilted too much to favoring big corporations . While I am in favor of free trade and have voted for free trade deals , my criteria for agreeing to any deal is : 1. Our trade barriers for our exports being removed as well 2. Does it have minimum worker standards to ensure workers in not only our nation but workers in the nation we sign trade deal with our treated fairly and 3. Does it have environmental protections cause we do not want sign a trade deal that would incentivize pollution for example.

Lehrer: Would you renegotiate NAFTA as well

Clinton: It would certainly be in talks with the leaders of Canada and Mexico but I would not make a deal for the sake of it, as while making the deal better is good we do not want to agree to a deal that is worse.

Bush: My opinion is that we need to expand trade into South America as I believe that will give us a good opportunity to improve our relations with South America as well as improve the economy of both South America and our nation as well. Doing so also would improve our relations with South America and also help us substantively address the reasons why people choose to illegally immigrate from those nations as a trade deal would remove that need.

I generally also disagree with the notion that we need to put more government regulations into these trade deals cause the fact is expanding trade towards South America would also increase the amount of exports our businesses have as well, and will make day to day goods more affordable for American workers while adding more regulations will hamper the ability to do so.

Clinton: While I absolutely agree that we need to expand our trading partners the fact is we do need to have minimum standards just like we have minimum standards in our own economy . I do understand that it cannot be the same standards but their has to be some minimum standards and thats what I will push for and I believe leaders in other nations would also agree as well. Doing this would do 3 things: 1. Would make outsourcing our jobs harder 2. Would improve living standards for people in the country we will be trading with, 3. would still increase the amount of trading partners we have and expand trade. So I believe that this approach towards trade is good , as it balances out all our interests together instead of just take a binary view of free trade vs protectionism.

Bush: The problem is that we would not be able to get agreements signed with that type of approach which would hamper our economy and relations with nations all across South America. My belief is rather than hamper our ability to sign these trade deals we should create a tax credit that incentivizes companies to invest here in America to ensure jobs do not get outsourced .

Clinton: May I have a response to that

Lehrer: I will allow a quick response from the both of you here

Clinton: All I wanted to put out here is we were told two and a half years ago by President McCain , Senator Bush and all the Republicans as they were ramming through their corporate tax cut bill that it would be good for jobs and now Senator Bush is out here saying we should give yet another tax cut. Again I am not saying I am opposed to signing new free trade deals but rather that I will keep you the worker in mind when I do

Bush: As you may know the tax cut bill really only was fully implemented at the beginning of this year and so far it has helped with our recovery and now I want to apply those same principles when it comes to this issue.

Lehrer: We will get more on the economy in a future debate so lets move on



Clinton viewed as winner in debate and takes 3 point lead in the polls:



Clinton/Rockefeller 227 48%
Bush/Frist 214 45%
Nader/Gonzalez 3%


Blitzer: Senator Clinton has been viewed as the winner in this debate and was able to move Minnesota and Iowa from Tossup into Lean Democratic in the polls.

Gergen: Yes many viewers believed that Senator Clinton came out as more calm and reserved and Senator Bush a little too aggressive which helped Senator Clinton. Now of course this wasn't some knockout win at all and there are still 2 more presidential debates left and a Vice Presidential debate that could change things. Keep in mind the townhall format is the format where Senator Bush is viewed to have the biggest advantage so this probably will just be a temporary bump for now and the final debate will probably determine who comes out of these debates with the advantage.

Blitzer: John why isnt Oregon and Wisconsin be able to move to the Lean Democratic column

King: The reason for that is Ralph Nader factor is far stronger in those states than any other which keeps those states very hard to predict. Otherwise Oregon almost certainly would be Lean Democratic and probably Wisconsin as well

[2016]

OSR,
Good Update

Yeah, I think you are right: This is going to even out again and by E-Day we will have a close Race.

However I feel Hillary will use the Gender Gap to her Advantage meaning she will very likely win the Popular Vote and could have a narrower EC Win.

Typical from George W. Bush, being too aggressive. He never learns