The Presidency of America's Maverick

[OSR stands with Israel]

Breaking News: North Korea tests Nuclear Weapon



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZJg5sGwXIM


Blitzer: We have some breaking news to report and that is the North Koreans have just said they have tested a nuclear weapon and from reports, we are getting those statements to have a high probability of being accurate.

CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent: Yes we are getting reports that they have tested a nuclear weapon though we don't know if it has succeeded or failed yet. We are told though that the President was informed by the Chinese Government moments before the test took place and is currently in an emergency conference with Secretary of State Lieberman and other world leaders on how to deal with it.

Blitzer: We have word that Secretary Lieberman is about to give a statement right now about the incident

Lieberman: A Few moments ago we regretfully learned that the Government of North Korea has conducted a nuclear test and it is something that the rest of the world will not stand for. The North Korean regime is arguably the most oppressive regime on the planet today and it is unacceptable that a regime such as the one in North Korea receive the ability to use nuclear weapons in war. It is due to this the United States, and the EU have announced that we will be ramping up economic sanctions against the North Koreans and hope the rest of the world joins with us as well.


For first time in presidency , questions arise whether President McCain's hawkish approach to foreign policy is the right way to deal with a situation:

King: For the past 5 years the President's very hawkish foreign policy has been viewed as successful but for the first time in his presidency this situation with North Korea questions whether the McCain doctrine can be applied to any situation as much as the administration like. The McCain doctrine has basically been defined as the belief that the US can solve any issue with an adversary by taking an aggressive stance and so far due to successes in Iraq has been viewed as correct but this recent failure in North Korea puts that assertion in doubt. The reason is the Clinton administration had come
to an agreement with the North Koreans to try to ensure they don't have the ability to produce nuclear weapons, and that approach was quickly abandoned by the current administration in favor of strict sanctions.

Democrats on the campaign trail have hammered this point hope and the question now seems whether they can reduce their deficit on the National Security issue

[OSR stands with Israel]

2006 Midterm Preview:

With the midterms tomorrow and Democrats looking forward to making major gains and even potentially taking one or both the chambers of congress lets look at our final House Generic Ballot Poll of Polls

House Generic Ballot:

Republicans: 48%
Democrats: 48%

Blitzer: Look at that you cant get any closer than that as it is a tie, a tie. Jeff Does this put the house as a tossup

Greenfield: No cause if you look at the 40 most competitive house races while 34 of them are Republican to 6 of them being Democratic we believe that really only 20 of these seats are really up for grabs at this point. Once you take that into account you start out with these numbers

Republicans: 217
Democrats: 198
Tossup: 20

As you can see all Republicans need is 1 of those seats to keep their majority meaning Democrats will have to sweep all 20 of those seats in order to take the house and that is very unlikely. Now keep in mind that even if the opposite happens and Republicans for some reason also sweep all 20 seats which is also very unlikely Democrats will still have picked up 10 seats in the House. So taking into account,  a more realistic goal of gaining 20 seats in the House is a real possibility which would be more seats than any party has gained in the house since the Republicans in 1994 and something that has happened only 3 times in the past 30 years in general. Doing so also would put the House into play in 2008 when keep in mind two years everyone thought Republicans had the house locked up till at least 2012.

Blitzer: How do the senate races look Jeff

Senate Battleground Races:

Greenfield: First lets look at the current map which will be up for the viewers to see and remember Democrats have to pick up a net gain of 8 seats from that map.

Greenfield: Now if you assign the races that we believe will be Safe Holds for each party this is what we have left:

Vulnerable Republican Seats:

Vermont: Businessman Richard Tarrant(R) vs Congressman Bernie Sanders(I) - Safe Independent Gain

Pennsylvania: Senator Rick Santorum(R) vs Pennsylvania Treasurer Bob Casey Jr(D)- Likely Democratic Gain

Ohio: Senator Mike DeWine(R) vs Representative Sherrod Brown(D) - Likely Democratic Gain

Michigan: Senator Spencer Abraham(R) vs Former Michigan Governor James Blanchard(D) - Lean Democratic Gain

New Jersey: Senator Bob Franks(R) vs Representative Frank Pallone(D) - Lean Democratic Gain

Rhode Island: Senator Lincoln Chafee(R) vs Former State Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse- Tossup

Tennessee: Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker(R) vs Representative Harold Ford Jr(D) - Tossup

Washington: Senate Majority Leader Slade Gorton(R) vs Representative Jay Inslee(D) - Tossup

Missouri: Senator Jim Talent(R) vs Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan(D) - Lean Republican Hold

Virginia: Senator George Allen(R) vs Businessman Harris Miller(D) - Lean Republican Hold


Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Maryland: Representative Ben Cardin(D) vs Maryland Lieutenant Governor Micheal Steele(R) vs Former Baltimore Mayor Kurt Schmoke(I) - Tossup

Minnesota: Attorney Amy Klobuchar(D) vs Representative Mark Kennedy(D) - Lean Democratic Hold

Blitzer: From the looks of it Democrats need 10 of these 12 seats in order to take the majority which seems like a very tall task especially with them requiring an upset in two of those races

Greenfield: Yes it is but it gets a less daunting if you assign the seats we are rating as lean or likely to their respective parties as once you do that the Senate Balance becomes 49 Republicans to 47 Democrats and while Democrats will yes have to sweep the 4 remaining tossups(Maryland, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington) and that wont be easy it does make their task less daunting.

Blitzer: How is polling looking like in those 4 races

Greenfield: In Rhode Island, the Democrats lead in Rhode Island, the Republicans in Washington while Tenneessee is a tie. Maryland on the other hand seems like a genuine 3 way race with the Democrat Mr.Cardin at 33% , the Republican Mr.Steele at 34% and the Independent Mr.Schmoke at 29%. Interestingly we are being told that Mr.Schmoke is pulling from both Mr.Cardin and Mr.Steele and you could see a surprise there.

Blitzer: The President seems like he has made a lot of trips

Greenfield: Yes he has campaigned for Republicans in all of these Senate races except in Vermont and Pennsylvania.

Blitzer: How do Gubernatorial Races look like

Battleground Gubernatorial Races:

Greenfield: First lets pull out the current map for the gubernatorial races.

Greenfield: Next lets assign the races we believe are safe holds for either party


Vulnerable Republican Seats

Ohio: Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell(R) vs Representative Ted Strickland(D) - Safe Democratic Gain

Arkansas: Representative Asa Hutchinson(R) vs State Attorney General Mike Beebe(D) - Likely Democratic Gain

Colorado: Representative Bob Beauprez(R) vs Former Denver DA Bill Ritter(D) - Lean Democratic Gain

Massachusetts: Governor Mitt Romney(R) vs Attorney Deval Patrick(D) - Tossup

Minnesota: Governor Tim Pawlenty(R) vs State Attorney General Mike Hatch(D) - Tossup

Texas: Governor Rick Perry(R) vs Former Representative Max Sandlin(D) vs State Comptroller Carole Strayhorn(I) vs  Musician Kinky Friedman(I) - Tossup

Maryland: Maryland Governor Bob Ehrlich(R) vs Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley(D)- Lean Republican Hold

Rhode Island: Governor Donald Carcieri(R) vs Lieutenant Governor Charles Fogarty(D)- Lean Republican Hold

Nevada: State Attorney General Brian Sandoval(R) vs State Senator Dina Titus(D) - Likely Republican Hold

Vulnerable Democratic Seats:

Georgia: Georgia Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor(D) vs Representative Johnny Isakson(R) - Likely Republican Gain

Alabama: Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley(D) vs Representative Jo Bonner(R) - Lean Republican Gain

Iowa: Iowa Secretary of State Chet Culver(D) vs Representative Jim Nussle(D) - Tossup

Alaska: Governor Fran Ulmer(D) vs Former Wassila Mayor Sarah Palin(R) - Lean Democratic Hold

Blitzer: Out of these races Texas by far has gotten the most attention so how is it that

Greenfield: Yes with Governors Riordan, Giuliani and Jennings all pretty much safe for their reelection, the only chance the Democrats have to grab a major state is in Texas and while it is the most Republican by out of the 4 by far Democrats do have a chance. The reason is one Governor Perry has mixed approvals, number 2 they recruited a really strong candidate in former Representative Max Sandlin and number 3 given there are 4 candidates in this race they wont need to get as high of a percentage as you normally would need to win.

Blitzer: Ok thanks Jeff for the preview and we hope to see all of you tomorrow as we will bring you full coverage of the 2006 midterm elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

Predictions are now open for the midterms. Please put your predictions in this format:


House - What the overall composition will look like

Senate - Which Seats will change hands and what the overall composition will look like(Republicans currently have a 57-43 majority)

Gubernatorial- Which Seats will change hands

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Wait why is Missouri Safe R here when Democrats won it in real life?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wait why is Missouri Safe R here when Democrats won it in real life?

Claire McCaskill won the Gubernatorial Race in 2004 unlike IRL and Jay Nixon decided not to run for the senate so Democrats triaged the race.

Actually just checked and seemed like Democrats did have another statewide office holder with Robin Carnahan so I will edit my post

[2016]

OSR,
MD-GOV: Ehrlich vs O'Malley is a highly questionable Call from you for me. If the Generic Ballot is TIED no way Republicans have a shot holding Maryland.

[OSR stands with Israel]

OSR,
MD-GOV: Ehrlich vs O'Malley is a highly questionable Call from you for me. If the Generic Ballot is TIED no way Republicans have a shot holding Maryland.

Keep in mind Ehrlich did better than Republicans did OTL in the House PV in 2006, he was within 6.5 points despite Bush and the Iraq War dragging the Republicans down big time in 2006. Also, keep in mind that O'Malley outperformed the polling average by more than 5 points in OTL (Polls had him only up by 1.3 points and he ended up winning by 6.5)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2006/governor/md/maryland_governor_race-42.html

[😥]

My prediction is something like this

House
Republicans: 225
Democrats: 210
Tossup:

Senate
VT: Sanders. I/D gain
PA: Casey Jr. D gain
OH: Brown. D gain
MI: Blanchard. D gain
NJ: Pallone. D gain
RI: Whitehouse. D gain
TN: Corker
WA: Gorton
MO: Talent
VA: Allen

MD: Steele. R gain
MN: Klobuchar

D gain: VT, PA, OH, MI, NJ, RI
R gain: MD
D+5

Republicans: 52 (-5)
Democrats: 48 (+5)

Governors
OH: Strickland. D gain
AR: Beebe. D gain
CO: Ritter. D gain
MA: Romney
MN: Hatch. D gain
TX: Perry
MD: Ehrlich
RI: Carcieri
NV: Sandoval

GA: Isakson. R gain
AL: Bonner. R gain
IA: Culver
AK: Ulmer

D gain: OH, AR, CO, MN
R gain: GA, AL
D+2

[2016]

Predictions

House: 233-202 Republican (D+ 14)

Senate: 52-48 (DEM Gains PA, OH, MI, NJ, WA, RI / GOP Gains MD and hold TN)

Governor: GOP hold TX, MA, MN / DEM Gain IA and MD (in an upset) Voters split Tickets electing Steele as 1st AA Senator from the State of MD while ousting Incumbent Governor Ehrlich.
 

[LAB-LIB]

Apparently, at the start of the 2006 cycle in OTL, Democrats didn't think they had a chance of taking control of the House, and they only needed 15 seats. The thought was hopefully Democrats would gain some seats and build enough momentum to take it in '08. I'm thinking McCain is going to be relatively popular throughout his presidency, but it's something to keep in mind.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Part 1):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

7:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2006 night coverage where we will be finding out what the composition of both the House and Senate will look like for the next 2 years as well as finding out who will be elected governor in 36 different states. The first polls have just closed and CNN can now project that in Indiana- Senator Richard Lugar will be easily reelected, in Florida-Senator Bill Nelson will be reelected and in Vermont-Independent Congressman Bernie Sanders will be elected. This marks the first gain for the Democrats as Mr.Sanders has states he will caucus with the Democrats and also in Virginia we are unable to make a projection at this time

Republicans: 40(-1)
Democrats: 29
Independents: 1(+1)

Blitzer: In the Gubernatorial Races we can project in Florida- Governor Tori Jennings will be reelected, in South Carolina- Governor Bob Peeler will be reelected, in Vermont- Governor Jim Douglas will be reelected and in New Hampshire- Governor Gordon Humphrey will be reelected. Currently we are unable to make a project in the Georgia Gubernatorial Race

Blitzer: So Far no surprises but the Democrats have gotten their first gain of tonight

King: No Bernie Sanders despite being a socialist is very popular in Vermont so no surprise he easily won but I also want to point out in Indiana that in Indiana's 8th district a Conservative Democrat by the name of Brad Ellsworth has easily won in a district that was won by the President by a fair margin. I think this does show that the strategy by DNC Chair Howard Dean of one recruiting candidates that culturally fit their areas while at the same point trying to create some sort of national narrative is a strategy that could help the Democrats win so many places they otherwise wouldnt

Cooper: Yes I agree with John as keep in mind the Democrats in 2002 and 2004 were defeated soundly in the House and while this strategy may not get them the house, it could help them gain a lot of seats.

7:30:

Blitzer: The polls have now closed in two more states and we can now project that in West Virginia- Senator Robert Byrd will be reelected in a landslide as everyone expected. The polls have also closed in Ohio but we are unable to make a projection there at this moment

Republicans: 40(-1)
Democrats: 30
Independents: 1(+1)


Blitzer: In the Gubernatorial races we can project in Ohio- The Democrat Ted Strickland will easily defeat the Republican Ken Blackwell to be the next governor of that state and in Georgia - Johnny Isakson will defeat the Democrat Mark Taylor to become the first Republican Governor of that state since all the way back in 1872.

Blitzer: Speaker Gingrich what is your reaction to the Georgia Results

Gingrich: It is exciting to know that we will have a Republican Governor in my state for the first time in more than 130 years and having known Governor-Elect Iskason , I can tell you nobody deserved to have the title more than he does. He spent year after year in the Georgia legislature leading our party which was in the perputul wilderness with us not being able to get 15% of the seats in the legislature and despite that he did a great job leading our party and now finally will lead our party to the promised land. By the way not only will we have control of the gubernatorial races but we will also have control of both houses of the legislature meaning Republicans will control all levers of power in Georgia after Democrats had done almost unopposed for over a century.

Carville: I do want to congratulate Speaker Gingrich on his party winning in Georiga but this wasnt unexpected. Representative Isakson led by double digits the entire way and its not a surprise someone like he would win . I think the bigger news is what is happening in Ohio as it looks like we will win the Gubernatorial race in a landslide and maybe even the senatorial race as keep in mind no Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio and we dont know how long it will take for the GOP brand in Ohio to recover from the Taft years. Second, the easy win by Ellsworth tells me that the strategy put out by Howard Dean is working and while I think we are the undogs when it comes to overall house control , I am optimistic we can gain 20 seats.

Blitzer: For the viewers out there why have the Democrats specifically said 20 seats is the barometer to judge whether or not its a good night or not

Carville: It is because gaining 20 seats would wipe out the gains Republicans have made in the house during the past two elections

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Part 2):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

8:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Its 8 PM and the polls have closed in huge amount of states and we can now project in Maine- Senator Olympia Snowe will be reelected, in Mississippi- Senator Trent Lott will be reelected and in Texas- Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson will be reelected.

We can also project that in Connecticut- Senator Richard Blumenthal will be reelected, in Deleware- Senator Tom Carper will be reelected , in Massachusetts - longtime Senator Ted Kennedy will win another term like expected. Some major news we can project is Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Ohio- Where Congressman Sherrod Brown will unseat Senator Mike DeWine and in Pennsylvania where Senator Rick Santorum will go down in defeat to the Democrat Bob Casey Jr .

We are currently unable to make projections in Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and in Tennessee .

Republicans: 43(-3)
Democrats: 35(+2)
Independents: 1(+1)

Blitzer: In the Gubernatorial races we can project that in Connecticut- Jodi Rell will win a full term on her own right . We can also project that in Maine- Governor John Baldacci will be reelected, in Pennsylvania - Governor Ed Rendell will be reelected, in Michigan- Governor Jennifer Granholm will be reelected, in Illinois-Governor Rod Blagojevich will be reelected, Tennessee- Governor Phil Bredesen will be reelected, in Oklahoma- Governor Brad Henry will be reelected , and in Kansas- Governor Kathleen Sebelius

We are unable to make projections in Massachusetts, Maryland,  Alabama, and Texas

Blitzer: So Jeff this round of poll closing was really great news for the Democrats

Greenfield: Yes it was as thanks to gains in Ohio and Pennslyvania, the Democrats now are assured to make net gains in the senate even if they lose every battleground seat left on the board. As for gubernatorial races , the non-plains Midwest very possibly could be all Democratic with the one exception of ultra Republican Indiana which would not be good news for the Republicans given how important that region is in deciding presidential elections. Now to be fair to the Republicans, the midwest is a region where gubernatorial races in recent years have tended to trend against the party in the White House as keep in mind after the 1998 midterms, it was the Republicans who held all but two gubernatorial seats in that region.

Bennett: Keep in mind that Minnesota and Iowa are both tossups as well so its very possible that at the end of the night there is no net change in the midwest. Compare that to 4 years ago where Republicans lost 3 Gubernatorial seats in the region and if you add Pennslyvania to it, that number would be 4. The fact is so far you have seen incumbents get reelected except in Ohio where the extremely unpopular Taft has brought the ticket down

Begala: If you are gonna add Pennsylvania I dont know how you can argue that given that it was called at poll closing time. That means Senator Santorum lost in a landslide and while yes Bob Casey Jr is a pro life Democrat, you can explain a high single digits loss but you cant explain what looks to be a double digit defeat like this away


8:30

Blitzer: The polls have closed in Arkansas and CNN can now project that the Democrat Mike Beebe will be elected as the next governor of that state meaning the Democrats will have the gubernatorial seat of the home state of Former President Bill Clinton for the first time in more than 10 years.

Blitzer: Our election team is also able to make our first forcast for what we think will happen in the House tonight and this is what they are saying

Republicans: 217-234(-13 - -30)
Democrats: 201-218(+13 - +30)

Blitzer: So James what do you think of that forecast

Carville: Well I want to point out that means the median project is we will pick up either 21 or 22 seats which I would say is a good night. What I also am interested in seeing is how close some of the races the Republicans that do hold on do win by as that will tell us how the battleground for the house will look like come 2008.

King: Yes I would say that while given that projection Republicans will most likely keep the house, I do think James makes an interesting point as races say that are decided with 7 or even 8 points could form the larger battleground come 2008 and we could see a real battle for that chamber come 2008 for the first time since Republicans took the chamber back in 1994.


Carville: Well Id say there was definitely a battle for it in 1996 but of course back then it was our party trying to stop the Republicans momentum which we did, while I think this night will give us the momentum heading into 2008 that the Republicans will have to find a way to stop.



8:46

Blitzer: Hold on cause CNN is now able to project that in Virginia- Senator George Allen will be reelected to a 2nd term and while this was expected the race will likely be closer than anyone would have thought just a few months ago

Republicans: 44(-3)
Democrats: 35(+2)
Independents: 1(+1)

Greenfield: That is absolutely right as a few months ago the question was whether Senator Allen could win by 20 points or not while now it looks like he will win by maybe 6 or 7 points. A Decent yes but this campaign by his will put some questions on whether or not Senator Allen is a possible contender for the Presidency in 2008.

Blitzer: How does Senator Allen win change the calculus for the seante

Greenfield: Well lets go over to our what if the board and hit the safe and called races tab and as you can see once we do that it gives the Republicans 48 seats to the Democrats 44. Now lets assume using the exit poll data we have that Republicans hold on in Missouri while Democrats pick up Michigan and then that puts the Republicans at 49 to Democrats 45 with Democrats yes needing to sweep the remaining 6 seats to take the senate. Keep in mind though that Mrs.Klobuchar is still given these results so far and the pre election polling a definite favorite in Minnesota so if you move her seat to the Democrats it gives the Democrats 46 seats,  and given the exit poll data and results so far the Democrats seem to have an advantage in New Jersey which would give them 47 seats. That means we are down to the 4 senate seats we talked about earlier : Maryland, Tennessee, Rhode Island and Washington with Democrats having to win all 4. So is it easy no but is it still possible, yes.


Blitzer: Bill How do the exit poll data tells us in Maryland and Tennessee

Schinder: It tells us that the Tennessee race is basically a dead heat and Id say for Maryland we should throw out any polling really and just wait for the results. The reason is that there was a significant third party factor in this race and either two things could happen: one is that many of a third-party candidate supporters while supporting the third party candidate, in theory, may not actually vote for him as they don't think Mr. Schmoke has a chance of winning which could cause either Mr.Cardin or Mr.Steele to unexpectedly surge. Another thing that could happen is that much of Mr.Cardin and Mr. Steele's soft support could evaporate too if many of their voters vote for the third party so Id say this race is completely up in the air and we should wait at least another hour before analyzing it.

[2016]

If Michael Steele wins in Maryland it will be because Cardin had that very divisive Primary with Kweisi Mfume AND it will be potentially hard for Republicans to keep him off the Presidential Ticket given how much the GOP was dodged with African-American Support in big Cities around the Country.

[President Johnson]

You would actually expect the Democrats to better, despite McCain being a solid president here. Anyway, keep the good work up.

Hopefully there will be a victorious Al Gore/Barack Obama 2008 Democratic ticket.

[Tron1993]

Hopefully there will be a victorious Al Gore/Barack Obama 2008 Democratic ticket.

Really…nah the Dems can do a lot better

However, I would like to see OSR continue this timeline to 2016 ideally with a two-term Democrat President

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hopefully there will be a victorious Al Gore/Barack Obama 2008 Democratic ticket.

Really…nah the Dems can do a lot better

However, I would like to see OSR continue this timeline to 2016 ideally with a two-term Democrat President

The plan currently is to continue this TL to 2016 and maybe 2020. I’ll probably create a separate thread for it but I do plan to take it to 2016/2020 at the moment .

[2016]

Hopefully there will be a victorious Al Gore/Barack Obama 2008 Democratic ticket.

Really…nah the Dems can do a lot better

However, I would like to see OSR continue this timeline to 2016 ideally with a two-term Democrat President

The plan currently is to continue this TL to 2016 and maybe 2020. I’ll probably create a separate thread for it but I do plan to take it to 2016/2020 at the moment .

Cool OSR
I actually predict that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee in 2008 and win the Presidency only to lose in 2012. Obama will stay put in the Senate BUT I'd like to see him creating his own History by maybe becoming the 1st Black Senate Majority Leader. Something like that would be cool.

[Tron1993]

Hopefully there will be a victorious Al Gore/Barack Obama 2008 Democratic ticket.

Really…nah the Dems can do a lot better

However, I would like to see OSR continue this timeline to 2016 ideally with a two-term Democrat President

The plan currently is to continue this TL to 2016 and maybe 2020. I’ll probably create a separate thread for it but I do plan to take it to 2016/2020 at the moment .

Cool OSR
I actually predict that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee in 2008 and win the Presidency only to lose in 2012. Obama will stay put in the Senate BUT I'd like to see him creating his own History by maybe becoming the 1st Black Senate Majority Leader. Something like that would be cool.

Oh come on, give me a 2 term Hillary, I want a two-term Hillary, no I NEED a two-term Hillary

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Part 3):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

9:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Its 9 PM in the East and CNN can now project that in Wyoming- Senator Craig Thomas will be reelected and in Arizona- Senator Jon Kyl will be reelected. We can also project that in New York- Senator Hillary Clinton will be reelected, in Wisconsin- Senator Herb Kohl Will be reelected, in North Dakota- Senator Kent Conrad will be reelected, in Nebraska - Senator Ben Nelson will be reelected, and in New Mexico- Senator Jeff Bingaman will be reelected. None of these are a surprise and I am sure you wont be surprised by the fact that we cannot make projections in either Rhode Island or Minnesota at this moment

Republicans: 46(-3)
Democrats: 40(+2)
Independents: 1(+1)

Blitzer: In the Gubernatorial races we can project in New York- Governor Rudy Guiliani will be reelected, in South Dakota- Governor Mike Rounds will be reelected, in Nebraska- Governor Mike Johanns will be reelected and in Arizona- Governor Betsy Bayless will be reelected. We can also project that in Wisconsin- Governor Jim Doyle will be reelected, in Wyoming- Governor Dave Freudenthal will be reelected and in New Mexico- Governor Bill Richardson has also been reelected

We are currently unable to make projections in Rhode Island, Minnesota or Colorado

Blitzer: Currently as you can see Representative Sandlin holds a slight lead over Governor Perry in Texas and if you pull up the map you can see that he currently is winning counties such as Dallas County like expected and has also made significant inroads in rural eastern Texas which many Democrats hoped he could do given he represented that part of texas in congress. He also holds a narrow lead in Harris County so far which is the biggest county in Texas and a bellwether county there but its still way too early.

King: There used to be a time when Texas was the most democratic major state in the nation instead of the most Republican and if things go well at the gubernatorial level that might hold true again.

Blitzer: Jeff Anything in the senate races so far that should be noted. In the uncalled races, the Democrats currently hold leads in New Jersey, and Michigan while Republicans lead in Missouri, Tennessee and Maryland.

Greenfield: Yes the fact that the Democrats already lead in Michigan tells me that its gonna be very hard for Senator Abraham to be reelected given how the more Democratic areas take more time to report. In Tennessee, I think so far the signs are to a very close race but keep in mine in Tennesse Republicans' leads tend to shrink as the night goes on so its a race we probably cant do much analysis on until we have at least 90% in.

Blitzer: Anderson I am hearing you have been told some breaking news

Cooper: Yes and that is we are being told that House Speaker Dennis Hastert has told Republicans that he will step down as speaker if the Republicans lose 20 or more seats tonight

Blitzer: That is big news indeed cause while Republicans need to lose at least 30 seats to lose control of the chamber, it means if they lose 20 we will have a new speaker. Anderson any indication of who it will be

Cooper: Yes we are told that either House Majority Leader John Boehner or House Majority Whip Roy Blunt will be named the next speaker if that happens

Blitzer: Speaker Gingrich you probably have a better idea than  anyone how the decision is made when to come to a change in leadership so how do those decisions get made

Gingrich: Well a lot of this is based on whether party expectations have been made or not. For example, my predecessor Bob Micheal Job was to ensure our delegation didnt collapse in the years we controlled the white house like it had the previous times and he succeeded in that job which is why he was kept on as leader for the amount of time he was.

Blitzer: Thanks for the insight Speaker Gingrich

Carville: I find it interesting my friend here conveniently leaves out the fact that he had to step down as speaker as he failed the expectations of making gains during a 6 year itch

Gingrich: There were other reasons behind that James

Blitzer: Ok it is about the correct time we take a commercial break

9:23:
Blitzer: We have another projection we can make and that is in Alabama-- the Republican Jo Bonner will defeat the Democrat Lucy Baxley to become the next governor of that state. This result is no surprise but does take the gubernatorial board to a net of no change so far as both the Democrats and Republicans have picked up 2 seats each.

Begala: This is not surprising but lets see whether or not Governor-Elect Bonner can become the first ever Republican governor to complete 2 full terms in Alabama or not and that will be the real challange.

Bennett: I believe not only that he can but he could be a great governor as well


9:37

Blitzer: Hold on as we can now make a major projection

Breaking News: Republicans Retain Control of House of Represenatatives
Blitzer: CNN Is now able to project that the Republicans will retain control of the house of representatives although with a much smaller majority as our latest forecast shows this


Republicans: 219-232(-15 - -28)
Democrats: 203-216(-15-+28)

Blitzer: So James what is your reaction to it

Carville: Well it is disappointing that we wont take the house but at the same time it was always considered a long shot but the fact is it seems like the chances of getting at least 20 seats keeps getting better and better. Also the fact is if we get 20 or more that means we will have ousted Speaker Hastert too and brought some change to congress even if its another Republican speaker

Gingrich: The Democrats only targeting 20 reminds me of how the Republicans used to be in the 40 years when we were in the minority which is continuing to keep low expectations. The fact is we gained 54 in 1994 which is a number id really call great

Begala: 1994 also was to your credit Mr.Speaker a type of year that only happens in realigning years and in the past 120 years there have only arguably been 3 of those and those being 1894, 1932 and 1994 so I dont think anyone could realistically expect a repeat of 1994 this year

Blitzer: One thing though that seems will also change is it probably will force the President to pursue a more moderate agenda again

Begala: Yes given the results in the house and so far in the senate, the full on conservative agenda of the last two years is dead for at least the next two and the President will be forced to govern more from the center again like he did more in his first term.

Bennett: Last two years of presidencies are usually spent cementing legacies anyway so I dont think that change will matter as much in terms of shaping the President's legacy. Now it could put the House in play two years from now and we will have to really wait for all the results to come out before saying that but if that happens then thats a change as well



9:49:

Blitzer: CNN can now project two more huge senate races and that is in Minnesota - we can project that the Democrat Amy Klobuchar will be the next senator of that state and in Michigan - that the Democratic former Governor James Blanchard will defeat Republican Senator Spencer Abraham to become the next senator of that state. That win gives the Democrats yet another gain

Republicans: 46(-4)
Democrats: 42(+3)
Independents: 1(+1)


Greenfield: That means the Democrats for sure will have picked up 3 seats tonight as if you give them the remaining uncalled safe seats to them that means Democrats will hold at least 46 Senate seats tonight giving them a net gain of at least 3 seats. Also with Missouri looking very favorable for the Republicans and New Jersey for the Democrats, it looks like the 4 senate seats we have talked about for a while: Maryland, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington will decide how the senate looks with the Democrats needing all 4 to take the senate.

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Part 3):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

10:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: Its 10 PM in the East and CNN can now project that in Utah- Longtime Senator Orin Hatch will be reelected, and in Nevada- Senator John Ensign will be reelected. We can also project that in Montana- Senator Brian Schweitzer will be reelected.

Republicans: 48(-4)
Democrats: 43(+3)
Independents: 1(+1)

Blitzer: In the outstanding senate races the Democrats so far hold leads in New Jersey, while the Republicans hold leads in Maryland, Tennessee and Missouri. Rhode Island so far is a back and forth race. James any news from Memphis

Carville: Keep in mind more of the Democratic areas are outstanding in Tennessee and from what I am hearing in Memphis, the race is basically a tie. 


Blitzer: Thanks James and also we have some gubernatorial calls we can make. CNN can now project in Idaho- Representative Butch Otter will be elected as that state's next governor. We are unable though to make projections in Iowa or Nevada at the moment

Blitzer: In the outstanding races so far the Democrats currently hold leads in Texas, Colorado while Republicans hold leads in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maryland, and Minnesota.


10:32:

Blitzer: CNN can now project in Missouri- Senator Jim Talent will be reelected which puts the Republicans just one seat away from keeping control of the senate

Republicans: 49(-4)
Democrats: 43(+3)
Independents: 1(+1)

Blitzer: Some good news for the Democrats is Harold Ford Jr now has tied Bob Corker and the momentum seems with him.

Greenfield: Yes though the issue is Maryland the Republican Micheal Steele currently is up by 3-4 points and it seems very hard for Ben Cardin to come back and if they hold that seat they take the majority. I do agree though that at this point New Jersey will very likely be won by the Democrats and im just being told our team is just waiting for one last dump around 11 before calling it, and Id say they are favored in Tennneesse so far . Doing so would give the Democrats at least 48 seats and with Rhode Island and Washington as basically pure tossups at this point id say they still have a chance to get to 50-50.


Bennett: To me I think we can still get to 53 or so senate seats but if we do get brought all the way down to 50 , you could see it devolving into a huge leadership fight. It has been assumed that Senator Mitch McConnell would take over leadership if Senate Majority Leader Slade Gorton loses but if the Republicans have only 50 seats that may just not happen.


Blitzer: Who would take over in that case

Bennett: Well there are many names but I could easily see someone like Kay Bailey Hutchinson potentially make a leadership challange. Now If Republicans get 51 or 52 his chances of staying on increase but I think if they are brought down to 50 then Senator McConnell wont be the next majority leader

Begala: I agree with Bill Bennett here


Blitzer: Hold on cause we are ready to make another House forecast and here it is

Republicans: 221-230(-17 - -26)
Democrats: 205-214(+17 - +26)

King: Right now the way the results are going id say the Democrats should be favored to take anywhere from 20 to 23 seats meaning that Speaker Hastert will no longer be speaker

Gingrich: I think you are judging to early as while 20 to 23 is seems like the most probable scenario there is a reason why thats not a sure thing yet

King: Oh I agree but if you ask me what I think the most likely scenario at this point is , I think the Democrats lose 20 to 23 seats


10:52:

Blitzer: We have two more gubernatorial calls we can make at this moment and that is in Nevada- We can project Republican Brian Sandoval will be the next Governor of that state while in Colorado- the Democrat Bill Ritter will defeat the Republican Bob Beauprez to become the next governor of that state

[LAB-LIB]

Still very good timeline, looking forward to the rest of it. I'm surprised to see Jim Blanchard surface. Did he attempt a comeback in 2002 like in OTL?

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Part 5):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

11:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: The polls have closed in the west and CNN can now project that in California- Senator Dianne Feinstein will be reelected and in Hawaii - Senator Daniel Akaka will be reelected. We are currently unable to make a projection in Washington State but we can project that in New Jersey- the Democrat Frank Pallone will unseat Republican senator Bob Franks to be the next senator from that state

Republicans: 49(-5)
Democrats: 46(+4)
Independents: 1(+1)


Blitzer: In the Gubernatorial races CNN Can now project that in California- Governor Richard Riordan will be reelected, in Oregon- Governor Ron Saxton will be reelected and in Hawaii- Governor Linda Lingle will be reelected. We can also project in Rhode Island- Governor Donald Carcieri will be reelected

Blitzer: So James what do you think about the Democrats chances of taking the senate

Carville: Well the fourth quarter has begun and we are currently down two touchdowns, so is it hard to win in regulation yes but is it possible also yes. To do so though we must score 3 touchdowns and not allow the other team to score a touchdown because this is like the old days where ties weren't resolved by overtime but by tiebreakers which in college football was which team is ranked higher and in politics is which party controls the Vice Presidency.

King: You guys had a nice win against Tennessee on Saturday

Carville: Yes we did though sadly we won't be playing for a national championship but neither will USC after they fell to 9th after their loss at Oregon State so there is some good news there

Blitzer: Ok back to politics, as we don't want to start a huge argument over college football here . In the Gubernatorial races, Representative Sandlin still holds a narrow lead in Texas,  while Governors Romney, Pawlenty, and Elrich all hold leads in their races. Iowa is still way too early to make any sort of analysis yet though the Democrat leads.


11:36:

Blitzer: CNN can finally make a projection in the Maryland Gubernatorial race-  and that is we believe that Governor Bob Ehrlich will be reelected narrowly over his Democratic opponent Martin O Maley. This race was far tighter than anyone could have projected but it does seem like Governor Ehrlich will be narrowly reelected.

Begala: While this defeat may be disappointing for Mayor O Maley I don't think he is done yet as he did manage to make this race closer than anyone would have thought. I think he very much could run again 4 years from now and given Governor Elrich will be term-limited, I think he'd easily win that race.

Bennett: Well hed have to first win that primary as given how blue of a state Maryland is many Democrats will argue that he doesnt deserve a 2nd chance.


11:51:


Blitzer: Our CNN election team has made another updated forecast for the House and this is what they are saying

Republicans: 223-228(-19 - -24)
Democrats: 207-212(+19 - +24)


King: So the Democrats are only one seat from not only reaching their goal but also effectively ousting Speaker Dennis Hastert as well. Also one more thing to watch is the total house popular vote as at this point is very possible the Democrats could narrowly win it which they can they use as leverage in negotiations with moderate Republicans over the next two years. 

Gingrich: The popular vote really doesnt matter as much not even from a moral perspective in my opinion as a lot of it is based on the fact that parties basically dont even really contest many seats that lets the other party win those seats by larger margins than they normally would have.

King: I disagree as both parties do that so I think that effect cancels out

[OSR stands with Israel]

CNN: Election Night in America 2006(Part 6):



Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-YxvEl9prU

12:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Blitzer: The polls have now closed in Alaska and right now we are unable to make a projection at this moment

Blitzer: In Texas with 93% of the vote in the Democrat Max Sandlin currently holds a 2.9 point lead over the Republican Rick Perry and looks in great shape at the moment. In Massachusetts, with 91% Governor, Mitt Romney holds a narrow 2 point lead . In Minnesota or Iowa we still have more of a third of the way to go so we will just mention the fact that Governor Pawlenty leads in Minnesota and the Democrat Chet Culver leads in Iowa.

For the 4 outstanding senate races, in Maryland the Republican Michael Steele with 92% of the vote in currently holds a 3 point lead there, while in Tennessee the Democrat Harold Ford Jr with 90% of the vote in now holds a 1 point lead . In Rhode Island, it again is going back and forth, and in Washington its still way to early before we can make a proper judgment

Greenfield: Looking at those numbers in Maryland while Cardin can still win its getting harder and harder for me to see how he can do so. Now an interesting fact to share is that if both Steele and Ford win that means the next congress will have 4 African American senators serving in it while before this current congress we have only had 4 African American senators in our whole history. So it shows you how far we have come not only in our history but part of the past few years

O'Brien: I definitely agree and like to add that I hope this is just the start of the process of having our congress being more representative of our diverse nation.

12:33:

Blitzer: Stand by as we have some major news to project

Breaking News: Republicans Retain Control of the United States Senate

Blitzer: CNN Can now project the Republicans will retain control of the United States Senate as we can now project that in Maryland- The Republican Michael Steele will defeat the Democrat Ben Cardin and the Independent Kurt Schmoke which will take the Republicans up from at least 49 seats to 50 seats and given all ties in the seante would be broken by Vice President Danforth, that means the Republicans will control the senate.

Republicans: 50(-4)
Democrats: 46(+3)
Independents: 1(+1)


Blitzer: So Newt and Bill you must be really excited by this news

Bennett: Id say more a sense of relief given how close these races were but yes its good news to take the senate. I do hope we take one more seat though so the Democrats can then claim that the only reason we held the senate is due to a third party costing the Democrats the seat in Maryland.

Gingrich: Listen at the end of the day a win is a win and the fact is no president since the 1960s will have controlled a trifecta for longer so I would definitely say while this is a good night for the Democrats its not a bad night for the President or the Republicans.

Dobbs: One thing in my opinion that could not be good news for the Republicans is that most economists believe we will be in a recession sometime next year which will put extra pressure on them to deliever and make things better.

King: I agree with Lou here that it is very possible you could see due to a recession that the President's numbers plummet when that takes place and then from there on out it will be up to the President and narrow Republican congress to show the people that they can really solve economic crises. Otherwise, you can not only see goodbye to the presidency two years from now but both houses of congress too given the fact democrats don't need to pick up that much in either chamber after tonight.


Blitzer: Hold up cause our decision team is ready to make another House forecast

Republicans: 223-227(-20 - 24)
Democrats: 208-212(+20- +24)

Cooper: And with that loss so goes Speaker Hastert

Begala: Yes he is expected to give a statement in less than an hour we are heard and at this point it does look like he will be ousted as speaker. This means not only will we have wiped out the Republican's gains from 2002 and 2004 but also forced them to make a change in leadership.


12:49:

Blitzer: We have some major news to project and that is in Texas former Representative Max Sandlin will defeat Governor Rick Perry to become not only the first Democrat of that massive state for the first time in 12 years but the first Democrat to win a statewide race there since 1994 as well.

Carville: Its great news that the state of Texas has finally gone back to our side after 12 long years of Republican rule in that state. I think Governor-Elect Sandlin is a pragmatic enough guy to work with both sides of the isle and due to that, I think he could be a very successful governor.

King: Keep in mind that he will have to work with a legislature that redistricted him out of his House seat so the question is whether or not he can let bygones be bygones or will that effect his ability to work with the legislature

Carville: I think he can as redistricting him out seems to have actually helped his career not hamper it as being Governor of Texas is a much better job that being a congressman for the minority party.

[2016]

OSR,
Who is the Governor in Florida?

[OSR stands with Israel]

OSR,
Who is the Governor in Florida?

Toni Jennings