W Bush was strong in CA in 2004

[Arbitrage1980]

It still blows me away that Bush 04 lost CA by "only" 10 points: the strongest GOP performance in the state since his dad won it in 1988. Yes, the 9/11 attacks helped him as the incumbent, but he lost NY (the state most affected by the attacks) by 18 points. And one would think that Bush, a Texan evangelical Christian, was cultural anathema in California.

[Brother Jonathan]

He did do pretty well with Hispanic voters in 2004, and outreach to those voters was a major part of both his 2000 and 2004 campaign. I think Karl Rove once even suggested that Bush could win California, and even if he didn't believe that he did at least help to create a strategy that gave Bush the best performance among Hispanic voters for a Republican on record. He won about 43% to 47% (depending on the source) of the Hispanic vote nationally. That coupled with a strong showing in the suburbs no doubt helped him out in California and made the race much closer than it otherwise might have been. It probably was crucial in his winning New Mexico, as well.

The early 2000s GOP really wanted to expand it's appeal to new demographic groups, but clearly they have given up on that at this point. But Bush clearly shows that the strategy can yield some results.

[Arbitrage1980]

He did do pretty well with Hispanic voters in 2004, and outreach to those voters was a major part of both his 2000 and 2004 campaign. I think Karl Rove once even suggested that Bush could win California, and even if he didn't believe that he did at least help to create a strategy that gave Bush the best performance among Hispanic voters for a Republican on record. He won about 43% to 47% (depending on the source) of the Hispanic vote nationally. That coupled with a strong showing in the suburbs no doubt helped him out in California and made the race much closer than it otherwise might have been. It probably was crucial in his winning New Mexico, as well.

The early 2000s GOP really wanted to expand it's appeal to new demographic groups, but clearly they have given up on that at this point. But Bush clearly shows that the strategy can yield some results.

The studies done after the election show that Bush probably got closer to 40% of the Latino vote rather than the 45% that was initially reported. It's still a very strong showing for a Republican, better than Reagan's. Bush 04 was the opposite of Trump 16: strong with Latinos and college educated suburban whites but weaker with working class whites in the Rust Belt.

The Bush strategy no longer works. College educated whites are far more liberal than they used to be, and culture is driving the political battles moreso than economics or foreign policy.

[Brother Jonathan]

He did do pretty well with Hispanic voters in 2004, and outreach to those voters was a major part of both his 2000 and 2004 campaign. I think Karl Rove once even suggested that Bush could win California, and even if he didn't believe that he did at least help to create a strategy that gave Bush the best performance among Hispanic voters for a Republican on record. He won about 43% to 47% (depending on the source) of the Hispanic vote nationally. That coupled with a strong showing in the suburbs no doubt helped him out in California and made the race much closer than it otherwise might have been. It probably was crucial in his winning New Mexico, as well.

The early 2000s GOP really wanted to expand it's appeal to new demographic groups, but clearly they have given up on that at this point. But Bush clearly shows that the strategy can yield some results.

The studies done after the election show that Bush probably got closer to 40% of the Latino vote rather than the 45% that was initially reported. It's still a very strong showing for a Republican, better than Reagan's. Bush 04 was the opposite of Trump 16: strong with Latinos and college educated suburban whites but weaker with working class whites in the Rust Belt.

The Bush strategy no longer works. College educated whites are far more liberal than they used to be, and culture is driving the political battles moreso than economics or foreign policy.

Interesting. 40% is still quite strong, but a lot more reasonable than north of 45%, almost 50% in some polls.

And yes, the Bush strategy would no longer work, but I do think there is room for growth in the Republican voter among certain communities. The GOP just generally seems content (complacent, really) with trying to shore up anxious white voters rather than expanding the base.

[Mr. Smith]

No, Kerry was weak.

Kerry was simply too pro-war [or perceived as such for Iraq] to really drive out the base that could've given him at least a 15 point lead.

He also lacked the environmental streak that Gore had or the who-gives-a-f^&k cosmopolitan attitude exuded by Bill that was prevalent among the left-wing.

Someone like Howard Dean would easily have done better.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

SoCal would have been a legitimate swing state in 2004. I think Bush lost it by 5 points.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

SoCal would have been a legitimate swing state in 2004. I think Bush lost it by 5 points.

Well it would have been regularly close-ish, though LA County would give it to Dems every time.

[tinman64]

Yes, he had strong Latino support in the state. I recall seeing many "Viva Bush" signs in the Central Valley.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

SoCal would have been a legitimate swing state in 2004. I think Bush lost it by 5 points.

Well it would have been regularly close-ish, though LA County would give it to Dems every time.

His father was the last to win SoCal.
Reagan was the last to win NoCal.

[libertpaulian]

SoCal has a lot of Evangelical Christians, too.  At that time, when America was more religious, probably even more.

[SevenEleven]

Yes, he had strong Latino support in the state. I recall seeing many "Viva Bush" signs in the Central Valley.

This is true. Bush won Cardoza's district and came really close in Costa's district, although in 2008 Obama got nearly 60% in each. Despite this, California Latinos are among the most Democratic overall, even in 2004. Texas and Florida Latinos are much more Republican than California or New York, especially.