IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%

[wbrocks67]

Ernst gave the tell-tale sign the other day when she was asked about polls and said "she doesn't follow the polls etc." She's losing and she knows it.

I would bet that Greenfield ends up winning by 1-2.

[wbrocks67]

1. I don’t trust polling in the state.
2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, I’m leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

[wbrocks67]

1. I don’t trust polling in the state.
2. I’m not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, I’m leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle

2020 is not 2014. Iowa seems like AZ in the sense that they like their candidates to be independents / mavericks in a way. Ernst has been nothing but a Trump hack.

[wbrocks67]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

[wbrocks67]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

[wbrocks67]

Love when theres now multiple polls of either the race tied or Greenfield leading, and it's somehow still 'Lean R'

I mean, it’s a partisan pollster, and IA polls specifically have been off by several points for the past three cycles (whereas polls in MI/PA/WI were much more accurate in 2018), so a 2-3 point lead for Greenfield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Sure, the polls could be right in IA this time, but given IA’s recent trend, it would take a very good night for Democrats to flip this seat.

This poll is literally showing the same margin (1% less actually) than the Selzer poll showed, and that's nonpartisan. Even if you shaved 2-3 points off, it's a tie. So again, not sure how anyone could say this is anything but a tossup right now.

I don’t know why you keep on getting worked up over people saying that they are skeptical of polls in Iowa overestimating Democrats. People are free to think what they want to about a given race bro

You don't just get to choose though to listen to polls when you want to and not when you don't. What I'm saying is the polls, and all the fundamentals (fundraising, etc.) show that this is literally tossup. I just don't understand why anyone would think otherwise.