IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%
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  IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%
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Author Topic: IA - GQR Research/End Citizens United (partisan): Greenfield +2%  (Read 2439 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« on: July 06, 2020, 02:08:05 PM »

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/joni-ernst-launches-first-tv-ad-as-another-poll-shows-tight-iowa-senate-race-20200706

GQR Research/End Citizens United (released in the Gazette)
June 23-28, 2020
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.46%

Greenfield 49%
Ernst 47%

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WD
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2020, 02:09:31 PM »

Tossup/ Tilt D.

I predict Greenfield by 50-49 and Trump by 51-48
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Astatine
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« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2020, 02:09:55 PM »

Wow, this is the fourth poll in a row now showing Ernst behind.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2020, 02:13:15 PM »

Yet another reminder, beware Iowaís recent polling history.
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2020, 02:16:19 PM »

Yet another reminder, beware Iowaís recent polling history.

Yeah but Ernst is by no means safe, sheís not even the favorite, I could see this being within 1-2 points either way. Probably seat 52/53 for the Dems
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2020, 02:19:38 PM »

Ernst gave the tell-tale sign the other day when she was asked about polls and said "she doesn't follow the polls etc." She's losing and she knows it.

I would bet that Greenfield ends up winning by 1-2.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2020, 02:30:14 PM »

Iowa polls underestimate Republicans. Lean R.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2020, 02:57:18 PM »

They probably didnít poll the people who talked to/listened to/hugged/etc. Ernst on one of her many 99-county tours. With Ernst's retail politics and IA's recent polling history -> Lean R.
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2020, 03:00:36 PM »

Remember like two months ago when everyone on this forum thought that Ernst would win by 20 points?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2020, 03:08:13 PM »

They probably didnít poll the people who talked to/listened to/hugged/etc. Ernst on one of her many 99-county tours. With Ernst's retail politics and IA's recent polling history -> Lean R.

No
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Gracile
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« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2020, 03:12:58 PM »

Remember like two months ago when everyone on this forum thought that Ernst would win by 20 points?

Nobody thought this, lol.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2020, 03:16:50 PM »

Remember like two months ago when everyone on this forum thought that Ernst would win by 20 points?

Nobody thought this, lol.

I thought a lot of people thought it was Safe R ad that Ernst would do better than Trump. Last month is when the perception started or turn
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2020, 03:17:31 PM »

Remember like two months ago when everyone on this forum thought that Ernst would win by 20 points?

Nobody thought this, lol.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=370793.msg7315024#msg7315024
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Gracile
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2020, 03:19:16 PM »


One user who is notorious for being a concern troll/doomsayer on Democrats' chances is not everyone on this forum.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2020, 03:27:27 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 03:30:41 PM by MR. CORY BOOKER »

Trolling is telling the truth that it's not gonna be a 400 to 500 EC landslide and 12 Senate seats.

Ds didnt even get that in 2008 400 EC votes and win TX and that was D plus 6

Covid 19 wasn't Trump's fault. It takes both parties to find a vaccine and Biden can be blamed if he doesn't find a vaccine in 2021 and Rs take Congress back in 2022

Just like the Rs blamed Ds in 2010 and won 60 House seats with 10 percent unemployment
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Oregon Blue Dog
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« Reply #15 on: July 06, 2020, 04:35:19 PM »


One user who is notorious for being a concern troll/doomsayer on Democrats' chances is not everyone on this forum.
Read the whole thread. The majority of people said it was likely to safe R.
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Astatine
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« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2020, 04:37:29 PM »


One user who is notorious for being a concern troll/doomsayer on Democrats' chances is not everyone on this forum.
It should still be noted that several other users saw the race as Likely R bordering Safe R. So while the 20 point lead was an exaggeration, there was still a wide consensus that this race is hardly competitive.
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YE
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« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2020, 04:49:48 PM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: July 06, 2020, 05:19:59 PM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?
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YE
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« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2020, 05:27:27 PM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

In this environment, basically everyone, including Trump, is a bad candidate generally speaking.

Why would someone vote Trump/Greenfield?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2020, 05:27:42 PM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2020, 05:30:17 PM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle

2020 is not 2014. Iowa seems like AZ in the sense that they like their candidates to be independents / mavericks in a way. Ernst has been nothing but a Trump hack.
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: July 06, 2020, 05:32:15 PM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

In this environment, basically everyone, including Trump, is a bad candidate generally speaking.

Why would someone vote Trump/Greenfield?

Beacuse they like Trump and Greenfield as canidates? Most Voters donít care about policy. How else do you explain all the Trump-Baldwin voters in WI or the Trump-Gianforte-Tester voters in MT.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: July 07, 2020, 01:17:09 AM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle

2020 is not 2014. Iowa seems like AZ in the sense that they like their candidates to be independents / mavericks in a way. Ernst has been nothing but a Trump hack.

Chuck Grassley says hello.

(I'm not disputing that Ernst is in trouble.  I just think the notion that Iowa likes their candidates to be a maverick is not remotely true.)
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: July 07, 2020, 04:28:46 AM »

1. I donít trust polling in the state.
2. Iím not sure why Greenfield would outrun Biden here.
3. I think Trump narrowly wins Iowa.

While recent polling would normally suggest Lean D, Iím leaving this at Lean R for the above reasons.

because Ernst is a bad candidate?

Why is Ernst a bad candidate? Her campaign in 2014 was one of the best of the cycle

2014 was a Gov race Kim Reynolds hadnt signed the abortion ban. Reynolds was much more popular than she was now. She could very well lose to JD Scholten in 2022 if Scholten loses his race for IA 4.
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