PA - Trafalgar Group: Biden +5%

[wbrocks67]

Odd that they would have MI and WI essentially tied, yet PA is Biden +5

[wbrocks67]

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle

"it's still Trump's election to lose" doesn't jive with just about anything that we're seeing this entire cycle

[wbrocks67]

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle

"it's still Trump's election to lose" doesn't jive with just about anything that we're seeing this entire cycle

The moral of the story is Democrats DO NOT get out and vote at the level of polling they respond to. I watched Gillum/Nelson lead by +5 all summer in FL and still lose the governorship and senatorship. All Trump had to do was lift a finger and say "Vote for DeSantis/Scott" and you'd swear it was like ants in a colony.

COVID-19 is not going to stop people from voting for Trump. His support amongst his base has not wavered. We still have to hope Biden voters will actually show.

for every FL though, there is just as many examples in FAVOR of the democrats