PA - Trafalgar Group: Biden +5%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:44:31 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PA - Trafalgar Group: Biden +5%
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: PA - Trafalgar Group: Biden +5%  (Read 1688 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 06, 2020, 11:36:50 AM »

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogy9usBPpSYOVTYilcOB1mhVvI8rTXk9/view

June 29-July 2, 2020
1062 likely voters
MoE: 2.92%

Biden 48%
Trump 43%
Other candidate 6%
Undecided 3%

Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,931
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2020, 11:37:23 AM »

You mean +5?
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2020, 11:39:54 AM »


Yes, I do. I was obviously adjusting for the Kanye bump.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2020, 11:41:01 AM »

Fake news. Kanye should be at 85% with Biden and Trump both at 5%
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2020, 11:46:15 AM »

If this is the best Trafalgar can get for Trump here...
Logged
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,903
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.75, S: -3.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2020, 12:00:57 PM »

Scranton Joe is winning back PA.
Logged
MR DARK BRANDON
Liam
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,098
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -0.65, S: -1.57

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2020, 12:02:45 PM »

Fake news. Kanye should be at 85% with Biden and Trump both at 5%

NO WAY Kanye would be at only 85. He would be at 100.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2020, 12:09:30 PM »

Odd that they would have MI and WI essentially tied, yet PA is Biden +5
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2020, 12:16:52 PM »

I would say PA is Lean D if Republican Internals have Biden outside the MoE.
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2020, 12:28:45 PM »

Trafalgar at Biden +5 is consistent with the NYT/Siena poll at Biden +10.

Jump ahead everyone pretending to be shocked in November when Biden wins by Obama '08 margins and rolls out a map similar to '18 Casey.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2020, 12:34:14 PM »

PA is locked up
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,361
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2020, 12:39:12 PM »

Not that I'm going to suddenly start trusting Trafalgar because it says something I like, but it's worth reiterating that (assuming Biden holds HRC's 2016 states), a win in PA + MI puts him in the driver's seat.  At that point, he only needs to win one of WI, AZ, FL, or NC (ordered by how likely I feel each is to flip) to hit 270.  

If Trafalgar is as accurate as my fellow Virginia and Georgia blues tout, this is a nice poll for Biden.  
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2020, 01:34:35 PM »

If a Republican pollster can't have Trump any closer, he's doomed. However, I think this might actually be the margin Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania in November. He'd be winning by more if the election was held today, but (I assume) the numbers will somewhat tighten towards the end of the campaign.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2020, 01:38:19 PM »

If a Republican pollster can't have Trump any closer, he's doomed. However, I think this might actually be the margin Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania in November. He'd be winning by more if the election was held today, but (I assume) the numbers will somewhat tighten towards the end of the campaign.

Why do people assume this? If anything Biden’s lead could get bigger.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2020, 01:43:15 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:47:52 PM by Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More »

If a Republican pollster can't have Trump any closer, he's doomed. However, I think this might actually be the margin Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania in November. He'd be winning by more if the election was held today, but (I assume) the numbers will somewhat tighten towards the end of the campaign.

Why do people assume this? If anything Biden’s lead could get bigger.

Some assumptions-
1) Polarization has effectively made double-digit PV victories impossible
2) When things get bad, they tend not to get any worse
3) Trump and his base will commit any number of crimes to win
4) Between the conventions and the debates, the media tends to get a lot more Republican friendly. They usually just start with a bunch of things like Hillary and Huma's friendship or Obama's old co-workers or something and then ends with dog whistle allegations corruption. You could call it "swiftboating".
5) We're not that lucky.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 06, 2020, 01:54:26 PM »

If a Republican pollster can't have Trump any closer, he's doomed. However, I think this might actually be the margin Joe Biden wins Pennsylvania in November. He'd be winning by more if the election was held today, but (I assume) the numbers will somewhat tighten towards the end of the campaign.

Why do people assume this? If anything Biden’s lead could get bigger.

Maybe I'm wrong, but Trump I believe Trump has a floor of 45-46% in Pennsylvania. Even if Joe Biden wins nationally by 2008 levels, Pennsylvania will be more like 2012 margin-wise (Biden doing better in suburbs and worse in some rural WWC counties compared to Obama eight years ago).
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2020, 03:46:23 PM »

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2020, 04:02:37 PM »

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle

"it's still Trump's election to lose" doesn't jive with just about anything that we're seeing this entire cycle
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 06, 2020, 04:14:24 PM »

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle

"it's still Trump's election to lose" doesn't jive with just about anything that we're seeing this entire cycle


The moral of the story is Democrats DO NOT get out and vote at the level of polling they respond to. I watched Gillum/Nelson lead by +5 all summer in FL and still lose the governorship and senatorship. All Trump had to do was lift a finger and say "Vote for DeSantis/Scott" and you'd swear it was like ants in a colony.

COVID-19 is not going to stop people from voting for Trump. His support amongst his base has not wavered. We still have to hope Biden voters will actually show.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2020, 04:18:23 PM »

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle

If Trump has to rely on AZ to put him over the top he’s even more screwed than I thought.
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2020, 04:26:53 PM »

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle

If Trump has to rely on AZ to put him over the top he’s even more screwed than I thought.

You could say the same thing about WI. The polls don't look good but again, it's July. I don't think it's insane that he rebounds and could pull off wins in either state by like 9,000 votes each if life returns to normal. AZ has been ruby red for decades and unless this is beginning of a permanent flip to the blue column, I think it's gonna stay red for a little while longer. After a decade of whataboutism talking about how "This time it's for real! Dems are gonna do awesome in NC, GA, TX lOoK aT tHe TrEnDs!" and it never happens, I'm ready to believe it when I see it. The trends are there for AZ in terms of Dems getting hundreds of thousands of more votes since 2008 and Trump and Romney barely performing better than McCain. But I think it's just more likely that they dislike Martha McSally and would still vote for Trump over Biden



As someone who is not voting for Trump, trust me I'd like to be wrong here. But I refuse to underestimate the powers of incumbency and Trump turnout
Logged
Use Your Illusion
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 442


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 06, 2020, 04:31:38 PM »

And to my previous "whataboutism" and "believe it when I see it" remark, it's not without reason. Abrams was an AA running in a heavily AA state in GA. Her turnout was great but not enough to win. I'd call it isolated. Beto challenged Cruz to within an inch of his life but that's because TX does not like Cruz -notice how governor Abbot absolutely CRUSHED his numbers. Another isolated incident. Andrew Gillum came closer than any Democrat to winning FL governorship in years. I'd call it isolated too because he was an AA who got out the vote like Abrams did.

I do not trust polls. The one thing we agree on most is about AZ. The trends have been backing up Dems for 12 years now and the dam might just break this time. But if Trump pulled off a win there and WI I wouldn't be left scratching my head like "Oh my God HE DID IT!" PA is Trump's FL to Biden: both men ought to try to win but not bank on doing so. Trump has a better path to victory via FL than PA and with Biden it holds true in that he has a better path to victory in PA than FL
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,759
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 06, 2020, 04:33:07 PM »

This no surprise, all those RV polls that showed it a Biden plus10 point race were overreaching and it was always gonna come down to 278. Ds didnt even win TX in 2008 and that was a D plus 6 or 2018 when it was plus 8

Ds winning 2 to 4 points is 278
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,711
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 06, 2020, 04:52:10 PM »

This is reassuring given they were both correct in the Rust Belt in 2016 but also very slightly over-estimated the Republican vote.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 06, 2020, 05:16:08 PM »

As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.


At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle

"it's still Trump's election to lose" doesn't jive with just about anything that we're seeing this entire cycle


The moral of the story is Democrats DO NOT get out and vote at the level of polling they respond to. I watched Gillum/Nelson lead by +5 all summer in FL and still lose the governorship and senatorship. All Trump had to do was lift a finger and say "Vote for DeSantis/Scott" and you'd swear it was like ants in a colony.

COVID-19 is not going to stop people from voting for Trump. His support amongst his base has not wavered. We still have to hope Biden voters will actually show.

for every FL though, there is just as many examples in FAVOR of the democrats
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 13 queries.