As probably the only poll I actually trust (say what you want but Trafalgar tends to get it right lately) I gotta say that doesn't bode well for Trump but it is very, very early... But truth be told he doesn't need PA. If he holds OH, WI, FL and AZ he's getting 270 exactly and can still lose MI all day.
At this point, it's still Trump's election to lose. Opponents of the incumbent always oversaturate polls all election cycle
If Trump has to rely on AZ to put him over the top he’s even more screwed than I thought.
You could say the same thing about WI. The polls don't look good but again, it's July. I don't think it's insane that he rebounds and could pull off wins in either state by like 9,000 votes each if life returns to normal. AZ has been ruby red for decades and unless this is beginning of a permanent flip to the blue column, I think it's gonna stay red for a little while longer. After a decade of whataboutism talking about how "This time it's for real! Dems are gonna do awesome in NC, GA, TX lOoK aT tHe TrEnDs!" and it never happens, I'm ready to believe it when I see it. The trends are there for AZ in terms of Dems getting hundreds of thousands of more votes since 2008 and Trump and Romney barely performing better than McCain. But I think it's just more likely that they dislike Martha McSally and would still vote for Trump over Biden
As someone who is not voting for Trump, trust me I'd like to be wrong here. But I refuse to underestimate the powers of incumbency and Trump turnout
