Has Biden's lead come down over the Past Week?

[Bidenworth2020]

Below are some of the weekly tracking polls that have come out in the past week. I know some of these polls are trashy, but keep in mind I am only trying to identify a trend.

YouGov/Economist- 50/41 Biden (+1)

Morning Consult- 47/40 Biden (-1)

Ipsos/Reuters- 46/38 Biden (-2)

YouGov/Yahoo News - 45/40 Biden (-3)

RMG Research- 47/39 Biden (-4)

Firehouse/Optimus- 45/41 Biden (-8)

CNBC/Change Research (not online but does weekly polling) - 49/41 Biden (-2)

On the other hand, some polls that have come out recently with no recent comparison look like this-

Monmouth- 53/41 Biden (+1 from last month)

Suffolk- 53/41 Biden (+2 from March)

Hart Research (D internal)- 55/41 (-)

So, there has obviously been some shift to Trump in online and weekly tracking polls, but live interview polls show no change or even Biden gaining compared to previous months. My question is, what does this all mean in summation?

[JerryArkansas]

Internet polls are subject to wild swings that are borderline unreasonable.

[Woody]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If there is one, it's not showing up in either the Economist or 538 polling averages.

[Person Man]

I guess swing voters were moved by the white power tweet, the loss of control of the COVID, and letting our rivals hunt our soldiers. The story of all of this is that its OK to treat people badly and for no one to like you as long as people do whatever they want for you anyways.

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

Which isn't really happening.

Jim Cramer said it himself. The pandemic has been great for big business but horrible for the economy.

The way Trump wins here is

- The media closes ranks on Biden and suddenly he has a bunch of scandals between here and literally to election eve.  

- Swing voters decide they "can't afford" to vote for Biden because rich people keep giving each other loans and all the sudden we are at Dow 30000.

[BobbieMac]

If there is one, it's not showing up in either the Economist or 538 polling averages.

This. The average hasn't changed. So for every Optimus and Yougov showing a lower single digit lead, you have a Monmouth / Hart / Pew showing +12/14

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden must be prepared to try to win some Sunbelt states in case Ds lose WI, that ME Senate poll and WI Prez looks worrying, but he is still the favorite,  due to GA and TX moving to left.

Mexicans in TX are more liberal than Cubans in FL


Maybe Trump winning WI in 2016 wasn't a mistake after all, it might be a beginning realignment.  Only Latino state in Midwest is IL

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

Coronavirus isn’t slowing down...

[Landslide Lyndon]

TBF, it has come down from 10+ points to "just" 9-9,5.

[Bomster]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

[Dr. Arch]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

[Tender Branson]

Biden has probably peaked, yes, and Trump will - sadly - make some sort of comeback after Labor Day when most people will tune into the race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

He must live in the one that Zogby polls.

[Woody]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

DUDE.... The reason there are more confirmed cases is because they are increasing the testing, if anything, it's good that there are more confirmed, that means they can identify them and prevent them from spreading further. Look at the death rate, it's been decreasing.

Remember when people were predicting 3000 deaths on average every day in June?:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

[CookieDamage]

Biden has probably peaked, yes, and Trump will - sadly - make some sort of comeback after Labor Day when most people will tune into the race.

We've been saying Biden has peaked and Trump will make a comeback for how many days, weeks, months, and years now?

Trump has had four years and he's never had a positive average approval rating and has been an underdog in the polls since before COVID/recession.

Plus, there's barely gonna be a GOP convention this year so like I'm struggling to see where he gets a bump or comeback narrative from.

[Ferguson97]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

DUDE.... The reason there are more confirmed cases is because they are increasing the testing, if anything, it's good that there are more confirmed, that means they can identify them and prevent them from spreading further. Look at the death rate, it's been decreasing.

Remember when people were predicting 3000 deaths on average every day in June?:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

Yeah and the President wants to "slow the testing down" so we don't have any cases lmao

[Lognog]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

DUDE.... The reason there are more confirmed cases is because they are increasing the testing, if anything, it's good that there are more confirmed, that means they can identify them and prevent them from spreading further. Look at the death rate, it's been decreasing.

Remember when people were predicting 3000 deaths on average every day in June?:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

deaths are a lagging indicator. and the idea that amount of cases of cases going up bc ion testing is bullsh**t, it's because the hospitalization rate is going through the roof and filling up ICU's all over the south

[WD]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

DUDE.... The reason there are more confirmed cases is because they are increasing the testing, if anything, it's good that there are more confirmed, that means they can identify them and prevent them from spreading further. Look at the death rate, it's been decreasing.

Remember when people were predicting 3000 deaths on average every day in June?:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

deaths are a lagging indicator. and the idea that amount of cases of cases going up bc ion testing is bullsh**t, it's because the hospitalization rate is going through the roof and filling up ICU's all over the south

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

DUDE.... The reason there are more confirmed cases is because they are increasing the testing, if anything, it's good that there are more confirmed, that means they can identify them and prevent them from spreading further. Look at the death rate, it's been decreasing.

Remember when people were predicting 3000 deaths on average every day in June?:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

Are you insane? There are more cases BECAUSE THE VIRUS IS SURGING BACK. Those cases will be there whether we test or not. More cases is not a result of more testing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Biden has probably peaked, yes, and Trump will - sadly - make some sort of comeback after Labor Day when most people will tune into the race.

I wonder if this year most people are already tuned in for obvious reasons.

[BudgieForce]

Polls that come out once a week will be noisy.

Also, Change Research is an online pollster.

[Liberalrocks]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

Just what have you been smoking or drinking?! Ugh

[ProudModerate2]

The RCP average chart does show a "noticeable" dip for Biden, which is also accompanied by a slight decrease in the gap number.
But the 538 average looks to be more steady.
So I guess go with which website (method) you feel is more reliable.

[ProudModerate2]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

DUDE.... The reason there are more confirmed cases is because they are increasing the testing, if anything, it's good that there are more confirmed, that means they can identify them and prevent them from spreading further. Look at the death rate, it's been decreasing.

Remember when people were predicting 3000 deaths on average every day in June?:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

deaths are a lagging indicator. and the idea that amount of cases of cases going up bc ion testing is bullsh**t, it's because the hospitalization rate is going through the roof and filling up ICU's all over the south

Yep. Just said/released about 6 hours ago ...
US surgeon general urges caution on US Covid-19 death rate: “We know deaths lag at least two weeks”

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Jobs report bump, Coronavirus slowing down, more testing.

CORONA SLOWING DOWN? Have you been paying attention?!

I wonder what it's like to live in an alternate reality.

DUDE.... The reason there are more confirmed cases is because they are increasing the testing, if anything, it's good that there are more confirmed, that means they can identify them and prevent them from spreading further. Look at the death rate, it's been decreasing.

Remember when people were predicting 3000 deaths on average every day in June?:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/04/coronavirus-update-us/

We have been over this so many times it hurts: New cases are rising faster than testing is increasing - hence the rising positive test rate - and deaths are a lagging indicator given that it takes time for the illness to progress to the point where it kills.

[Hammy]

As pandemic cases go up more people are rethinking if voting is worth the health risk.