Future of the anti-Trump GOP voters

[RINO Tom]

I mean, they’ll obviously become more reliably Democratic than Democrats.

[RINO Tom]

You guys are insane if you think every realignment will follow the unique, tribal, historically unique and unparalleled patterns as Blacks and Southern Whites during the Twentieth Century.  “White College grads” or “Romney-Clinton suburbanites” are not IDENTITIES, lol ... and identities are what form 10-20-30 year voting patterns.  The GOP is a mess, but if you honestly believe the Democrats’ 110% responsive strategy of “look how crazy they are and how less crazy we are!” will have some lasting, identity-forging impact on this country’s politics...

Maybe, bro.

[RINO Tom]

Repiblican analogue to Dixiecrats. They will become Dems.

The majority will, at least for some time.  Most Trump “Democrats” will vote Republican for the foreseeable future (granted, even many of them probably aren’t thrilled with everything about Trump these days).

I’m not saying current trends will last forever, but trends tend to stick around a while.  West Virginia voted for Bush in 2000 after having trended far right from 1996, and having voted Democratic in 15 out of 18 prior elections.  It voted just 2 points to the left Virginia in 2000.  Virginia trended left that year, but it still hadn’t voted Democratic since 1964.  Pundits emphasized history or contemporary trends, as they talked about West Virginia as a real battleground for 2004, but seemed surprised when the Kerry campaign even suggested that Virginia could possibly be competitive.

In all likelihood, urban and suburban areas—especially diverse and educated ones, full of Romney/Clinton voters—will thrash Republicans by record margins this year.  Regardless of which way rural America swings, it will continue to trend Republican.  Again, nothing is forever, and I suppose it’s possible that economics will play such a role that upscale suburbanites will get super-scared of taxes and become the headache for Democrats they once were, and that impoverished rural voters in many areas will discover the appeal of Democratic redistributive proposals, but don’t expect anything like that anytime soon.

Like, until we can possibly imagine anything else?

It’s literally astonishing how different politics are vs. the Bush Era ... we all think that everything is “post-historical” now, why?  Maybe people would object to that language, but JESUS, guys ... our predictions were historically BS ~2004, and now we’re just beyond that to the point where we can prognosticate DECADES because people don’t like Donald Trump??

Maybe you guys are right, but I think you should all appreciate how bold that claim is.

[RINO Tom]

They'll stay for a decade, we'll see after. If AOC becomes the Dems standardbearer then its easy to see this group switching back to the GOP.

Sadly, I'm not sure AOC is less alienating towards the Romney-Clinton types than Obama-Trump voters (and my belief in this gets stronger with time as she becomes more defined in her role as Designated Villain). They could still swing Republican in a year where she was the nominee, but it doesn't strike me as especially obvious that they'd trend Republican.

Do you guys not remember what you said about the GOP pre-Trump?  Haha, it's as if you weren't 110% convinced that Romney's voters weren't sexist, racist, homophobic xenophobes who ALSO hated the poor ... will Romney-Clinton voters come flooding back to Donald Trump?  Lol, no, he obviously upset them enough to jump ship.  Will the districts they're in "come home" as soon as Trump is gone?  No, an even tiny minority of them remaining Democratic voters mixed with changing demographics and generational displacement would be enough to keep the scales tipped.  However, if is literally insane to talk about someone who voted against Barack Obama and for Mitt Romney as if they were, like, 1950s-style Republicans and not mainstream 2000s American conservatives who would check literally every box you guys trash about Republicans except where they live and the fact that they went to college, haha.