Future of the anti-Trump GOP voters
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  Future of the anti-Trump GOP voters
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Poll
Question: What is the future of the Republicans who ditched Trump in 2016 after he is gone?
#1
They’ll return to the GOP fold
 
#2
They’ll remain with the Democrats
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 62

Author Topic: Future of the anti-Trump GOP voters  (Read 3218 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: July 02, 2020, 08:36:37 PM »

What happens to the GOP voters who turned against Trump in 2016 and continue to oppose him to this day, once he leaves office?
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dw93
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2020, 09:33:36 PM »

What happens to the GOP voters who turned against Trump in 2016 and continue to oppose him to this day, once he leaves office?

If the party continues down its current path, they'll go the way of the Rockefeller Republicans of yesteryear.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2020, 10:10:04 PM »

They become the new moderate Democrats in the Seventh Party System.
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Coastal_Elite
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2020, 11:21:15 PM »

The "Never Trumpers" will either permanently become Democrats, or the Republicans will move leftward in order to win back Romney-Clinton voters.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: July 03, 2020, 11:16:55 AM »

Exit polls from 2012 and 2016:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls

The Republican vote in 2012:
Romney 93%
Obama 6%
3rd Party 1%

The Republican vote in 2016:
Trump 88%
Clinton 8%
3rd Party 4%

[Of course, this doesn't count those Republicans who skipped the election altogether.  This is just among those who voted.]

Are the 12% of self-identified Republicans who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 a very different group of voters than the 7% who didn't vote for Romney in 2012?  Or is there heavy overlap?  Are there always just a bunch of people in the party (in both parties really) who spend many elections in a row not voting for their party's nominee for president, yet holding on to the party identification for some reason (maybe for more local races)?  Or is there something especially different about those Republicans who didn't vote Trump in 2016?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: July 03, 2020, 04:18:22 PM »

Depends entirely on who the 2024 nominee is.

Nikki Haley/Marco Rubio type? They return to the GOP.

Trump Jr/Tucker Carlson type? They stick with the Dems.

Tom Cotton/Ron DeSantis/Josh Hawley type? Unclear.
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dw93
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« Reply #6 on: July 04, 2020, 10:11:51 AM »

Depends entirely on who the 2024 nominee is.

Nikki Haley/Marco Rubio type? They return to the GOP.

Trump Jr/Tucker Carlson type? They stick with the Dems.

Tom Cotton/Ron DeSantis/Josh Hawley type? Unclear.

I'd move Cotton to the "Stick with the Dems" category as he's the worst of Bush era neoconservatism and the worst of Trump rolled into one. I agree otherwise.
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electoralfox
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« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2020, 02:16:48 PM »

I think more of this cohort will vote for Biden. People forget that Clinton was so despised by the Republicans in 2016 that they considered Trump a better choice. After seeing Trump in office, a lot more of them will think twice before voting for him.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2020, 07:36:10 PM »

Depends entirely on who the 2024 nominee is.

Nikki Haley/Marco Rubio type? They return to the GOP.

Trump Jr/Tucker Carlson type? They stick with the Dems.

Tom Cotton/Ron DeSantis/Josh Hawley type? Unclear.

I'd move Cotton to the "Stick with the Dems" category as he's the worst of Bush era neoconservatism and the worst of Trump rolled into one. I agree otherwise.

A lot of the Never Trumpers are neocon types (John Bolton, Bill Kristol, Jennifer Rubin, Max Boot, etc) though.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2020, 08:13:25 PM »

I mean, they’ll obviously become more reliably Democratic than Democrats.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2020, 08:35:11 PM »

I mean, they’ll obviously become more reliably Democratic than Democrats.

Omitting the "obvious" part (there's a chance this isn't a long-term trend, but it looks like one w.r.t. the 2016 never-Trumpers), this but (sadly) unironically.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2020, 10:05:42 PM »

You guys are insane if you think every realignment will follow the unique, tribal, historically unique and unparalleled patterns as Blacks and Southern Whites during the Twentieth Century.  “White College grads” or “Romney-Clinton suburbanites” are not IDENTITIES, lol ... and identities are what form 10-20-30 year voting patterns.  The GOP is a mess, but if you honestly believe the Democrats’ 110% responsive strategy of “look how crazy they are and how less crazy we are!” will have some lasting, identity-forging impact on this country’s politics...

Maybe, bro.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: July 04, 2020, 11:10:47 PM »

Repiblican analogue to Dixiecrats. They will become Dems.

The majority will, at least for some time.  Most Trump “Democrats” will vote Republican for the foreseeable future (granted, even many of them probably aren’t thrilled with everything about Trump these days).

I’m not saying current trends will last forever, but trends tend to stick around a while.  West Virginia voted for Bush in 2000 after having trended far right from 1996, and having voted Democratic in 15 out of 18 prior elections.  It voted just 2 points to the left Virginia in 2000.  Virginia trended left that year, but it still hadn’t voted Democratic since 1964.  Pundits emphasized history or contemporary trends, as they talked about West Virginia as a real battleground for 2004, but seemed surprised when the Kerry campaign even suggested that Virginia could possibly be competitive.

In all likelihood, urban and suburban areas—especially diverse and educated ones, full of Romney/Clinton voters—will thrash Republicans by record margins this year.  Regardless of which way rural America swings, it will continue to trend Republican.  Again, nothing is forever, and I suppose it’s possible that economics will play such a role that upscale suburbanites will get super-scared of taxes and become the headache for Democrats they once were, and that impoverished rural voters in many areas will discover the appeal of Democratic redistributive proposals, but don’t expect anything like that anytime soon.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #13 on: July 05, 2020, 12:42:50 AM »

Repiblican analogue to Dixiecrats. They will become Dems.

The majority will, at least for some time.  Most Trump “Democrats” will vote Republican for the foreseeable future (granted, even many of them probably aren’t thrilled with everything about Trump these days).

I’m not saying current trends will last forever, but trends tend to stick around a while.  West Virginia voted for Bush in 2000 after having trended far right from 1996, and having voted Democratic in 15 out of 18 prior elections.  It voted just 2 points to the left Virginia in 2000.  Virginia trended left that year, but it still hadn’t voted Democratic since 1964.  Pundits emphasized history or contemporary trends, as they talked about West Virginia as a real battleground for 2004, but seemed surprised when the Kerry campaign even suggested that Virginia could possibly be competitive.

In all likelihood, urban and suburban areas—especially diverse and educated ones, full of Romney/Clinton voters—will thrash Republicans by record margins this year.  Regardless of which way rural America swings, it will continue to trend Republican.  Again, nothing is forever, and I suppose it’s possible that economics will play such a role that upscale suburbanites will get super-scared of taxes and become the headache for Democrats they once were, and that impoverished rural voters in many areas will discover the appeal of Democratic redistributive proposals, but don’t expect anything like that anytime soon.

Like, until we can possibly imagine anything else?

It’s literally astonishing how different politics are vs. the Bush Era ... we all think that everything is “post-historical” now, why?  Maybe people would object to that language, but JESUS, guys ... our predictions were historically BS ~2004, and now we’re just beyond that to the point where we can prognosticate DECADES because people don’t like Donald Trump??

Maybe you guys are right, but I think you should all appreciate how bold that claim is.
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Sam Smith
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« Reply #14 on: July 05, 2020, 11:34:02 AM »

I hope they are going to be Democrats.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: July 05, 2020, 11:40:20 AM »

I hope they are going to be Democrats.


Why? They skew more hostile than much of the Democratic base to more ambitious reforms, which are (in the main) what is needed to improve material conditions and thereby precipitate the decline of polarisation.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #16 on: July 05, 2020, 11:44:37 AM »

I suspect a decent number, though probably not all, will vote Republican in the 2022 midterms. After that, it depends on who the GOP goes with in 2024.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #17 on: July 05, 2020, 02:48:49 PM »

Depends entirely on who the 2024 nominee is.

Nikki Haley/Marco Rubio type? They return to the GOP.

Trump Jr/Tucker Carlson type? They stick with the Dems.

Tom Cotton/Ron DeSantis/Josh Hawley type? Unclear.

I'd move Cotton to the "Stick with the Dems" category as he's the worst of Bush era neoconservatism and the worst of Trump rolled into one. I agree otherwise.

A lot of the Never Trumpers are neocon types (John Bolton, Bill Kristol, Jennifer Rubin, Max Boot, etc) though.

LOL at Bolton being included with the other three. Bolton is a staunch war hawk who'd be perfectly happy with Rick Perry or Scott Walker as President. Kristol and Boot seem more McCain-type. Rubin is a Charlie Baker-type Republican and is literally the embodiment of these new Democrats.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2020, 03:04:32 PM »
« Edited: July 05, 2020, 03:08:33 PM by TDAS04 »

Repiblican analogue to Dixiecrats. They will become Dems.

The majority will, at least for some time.  Most Trump “Democrats” will vote Republican for the foreseeable future (granted, even many of them probably aren’t thrilled with everything about Trump these days).

I’m not saying current trends will last forever, but trends tend to stick around a while.  West Virginia voted for Bush in 2000 after having trended far right from 1996, and having voted Democratic in 15 out of 18 prior elections.  It voted just 2 points to the left Virginia in 2000.  Virginia trended left that year, but it still hadn’t voted Democratic since 1964.  Pundits emphasized history or contemporary trends, as they talked about West Virginia as a real battleground for 2004, but seemed surprised when the Kerry campaign even suggested that Virginia could possibly be competitive.

In all likelihood, urban and suburban areas—especially diverse and educated ones, full of Romney/Clinton voters—will thrash Republicans by record margins this year.  Regardless of which way rural America swings, it will continue to trend Republican.  Again, nothing is forever, and I suppose it’s possible that economics will play such a role that upscale suburbanites will get super-scared of taxes and become the headache for Democrats they once were, and that impoverished rural voters in many areas will discover the appeal of Democratic redistributive proposals, but don’t expect anything like that anytime soon.

Like, until we can possibly imagine anything else?

It’s literally astonishing how different politics are vs. the Bush Era ... we all think that everything is “post-historical” now, why?  Maybe people would object to that language, but JESUS, guys ... our predictions were historically BS ~2004, and now we’re just beyond that to the point where we can prognosticate DECADES because people don’t like Donald Trump??

Maybe you guys are right, but I think you should all appreciate how bold that claim is.

I didn’t say decades.  Obviously we can’t even make an educated guess what coalitions will look like in say, 2080.  No one is saying we can.  I guess wasn’t being specific, it’s possible I’m wrong, but I’d imagine that Trump effects will not be forgotten in either part by the 2030s.  Many Republicans still won’t shut about how Jimmy Carter was a “disaster,” and memories of Trumpism may have a impact on partisan allegiances for more than just a few cycles.
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Devils30
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« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2020, 03:45:12 PM »

They'll stay for a decade, we'll see after. If AOC becomes the Dems standardbearer then its easy to see this group switching back to the GOP.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2020, 08:12:46 PM »

They'll stay for a decade, we'll see after. If AOC becomes the Dems standardbearer then its easy to see this group switching back to the GOP.

Sadly, I'm not sure AOC is less alienating towards the Romney-Clinton types than Obama-Trump voters (and my belief in this gets stronger with time as she becomes more defined in her role as Designated Villain). They could still swing Republican in a year where she was the nominee, but it doesn't strike me as especially obvious that they'd trend Republican.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #21 on: July 07, 2020, 09:42:15 PM »

They'll stay for a decade, we'll see after. If AOC becomes the Dems standardbearer then its easy to see this group switching back to the GOP.

Sadly, I'm not sure AOC is less alienating towards the Romney-Clinton types than Obama-Trump voters (and my belief in this gets stronger with time as she becomes more defined in her role as Designated Villain). They could still swing Republican in a year where she was the nominee, but it doesn't strike me as especially obvious that they'd trend Republican.

Do you guys not remember what you said about the GOP pre-Trump?  Haha, it's as if you weren't 110% convinced that Romney's voters weren't sexist, racist, homophobic xenophobes who ALSO hated the poor ... will Romney-Clinton voters come flooding back to Donald Trump?  Lol, no, he obviously upset them enough to jump ship.  Will the districts they're in "come home" as soon as Trump is gone?  No, an even tiny minority of them remaining Democratic voters mixed with changing demographics and generational displacement would be enough to keep the scales tipped.  However, if is literally insane to talk about someone who voted against Barack Obama and for Mitt Romney as if they were, like, 1950s-style Republicans and not mainstream 2000s American conservatives who would check literally every box you guys trash about Republicans except where they live and the fact that they went to college, haha.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #22 on: July 07, 2020, 11:03:57 PM »

They'll stay for a decade, we'll see after. If AOC becomes the Dems standardbearer then its easy to see this group switching back to the GOP.

Not necessarily. A lot of people weren’t thrilled with Goldwater in 1964 but slowly warmed up to his ideals by the time Reagan came around. We could see the same thing happen here.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2020, 03:14:07 AM »

They'll stay for a decade, we'll see after. If AOC becomes the Dems standardbearer then its easy to see this group switching back to the GOP.

Sadly, I'm not sure AOC is less alienating towards the Romney-Clinton types than Obama-Trump voters (and my belief in this gets stronger with time as she becomes more defined in her role as Designated Villain). They could still swing Republican in a year where she was the nominee, but it doesn't strike me as especially obvious that they'd trend Republican.

Do you guys not remember what you said about the GOP pre-Trump?  Haha, it's as if you weren't 110% convinced that Romney's voters weren't sexist, racist, homophobic xenophobes who ALSO hated the poor ... will Romney-Clinton voters come flooding back to Donald Trump?  Lol, no, he obviously upset them enough to jump ship.  Will the districts they're in "come home" as soon as Trump is gone?  No, an even tiny minority of them remaining Democratic voters mixed with changing demographics and generational displacement would be enough to keep the scales tipped.  However, if is literally insane to talk about someone who voted against Barack Obama and for Mitt Romney as if they were, like, 1950s-style Republicans and not mainstream 2000s American conservatives who would check literally every box you guys trash about Republicans except where they live and the fact that they went to college, haha.

I'm not arguing they're especially prejudiced. I'm saying people most inclined to switch against HRC but not any previous Democratic candidate are also more likely to vote against AOC than almost any other Democrat, primarily because HRC's toxicity was built up through her role as the Designated Villain for decades and AOC has since taken her place on Fox etc (so is more likely than any other Democrat to eventually inherit the same critics).
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #24 on: July 10, 2020, 01:46:40 PM »

By 2028/2030 at the maximum, Romney-Clinton voters or Romney-Trump-Biden voters will not be politics any more, they will be history.
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