Future of the anti-Trump GOP voters

[TDAS04]

Repiblican analogue to Dixiecrats. They will become Dems.

The majority will, at least for some time.  Most Trump “Democrats” will vote Republican for the foreseeable future (granted, even many of them probably aren’t thrilled with everything about Trump these days).

I’m not saying current trends will last forever, but trends tend to stick around a while.  West Virginia voted for Bush in 2000 after having trended far right from 1996, and having voted Democratic in 15 out of 18 prior elections.  It voted just 2 points to the left Virginia in 2000.  Virginia trended left that year, but it still hadn’t voted Democratic since 1964.  Pundits emphasized history or contemporary trends, as they talked about West Virginia as a real battleground for 2004, but seemed surprised when the Kerry campaign even suggested that Virginia could possibly be competitive.

In all likelihood, urban and suburban areas—especially diverse and educated ones, full of Romney/Clinton voters—will thrash Republicans by record margins this year.  Regardless of which way rural America swings, it will continue to trend Republican.  Again, nothing is forever, and I suppose it’s possible that economics will play such a role that upscale suburbanites will get super-scared of taxes and become the headache for Democrats they once were, and that impoverished rural voters in many areas will discover the appeal of Democratic redistributive proposals, but don’t expect anything like that anytime soon.

[TDAS04]

Repiblican analogue to Dixiecrats. They will become Dems.

The majority will, at least for some time.  Most Trump “Democrats” will vote Republican for the foreseeable future (granted, even many of them probably aren’t thrilled with everything about Trump these days).

I’m not saying current trends will last forever, but trends tend to stick around a while.  West Virginia voted for Bush in 2000 after having trended far right from 1996, and having voted Democratic in 15 out of 18 prior elections.  It voted just 2 points to the left Virginia in 2000.  Virginia trended left that year, but it still hadn’t voted Democratic since 1964.  Pundits emphasized history or contemporary trends, as they talked about West Virginia as a real battleground for 2004, but seemed surprised when the Kerry campaign even suggested that Virginia could possibly be competitive.

In all likelihood, urban and suburban areas—especially diverse and educated ones, full of Romney/Clinton voters—will thrash Republicans by record margins this year.  Regardless of which way rural America swings, it will continue to trend Republican.  Again, nothing is forever, and I suppose it’s possible that economics will play such a role that upscale suburbanites will get super-scared of taxes and become the headache for Democrats they once were, and that impoverished rural voters in many areas will discover the appeal of Democratic redistributive proposals, but don’t expect anything like that anytime soon.

Like, until we can possibly imagine anything else?

It’s literally astonishing how different politics are vs. the Bush Era ... we all think that everything is “post-historical” now, why?  Maybe people would object to that language, but JESUS, guys ... our predictions were historically BS ~2004, and now we’re just beyond that to the point where we can prognosticate DECADES because people don’t like Donald Trump??

Maybe you guys are right, but I think you should all appreciate how bold that claim is.

I didn’t say decades.  Obviously we can’t even make an educated guess what coalitions will look like in say, 2080.  No one is saying we can.  I guess wasn’t being specific, it’s possible I’m wrong, but I’d imagine that Trump effects will not be forgotten in either part by the 2030s.  Many Republicans still won’t shut about how Jimmy Carter was a “disaster,” and memories of Trumpism may have a impact on partisan allegiances for more than just a few cycles.