Assuming Biden wins, which D-trending areas do the GOP recover in?

[Del Tachi]

GOP will continue to make gains with rural WWC voters, especially if they embrace Trumpist populism over billionaire donor neoliberalism (not certain they will). At the same time, not having Trump's personal baggage will help them in the suburbs, especially among women.

Serious question, for both the Trumpists and Democratic partisans who love the idea of this trend continuing ... just how many of these voters do you think there are left to flip in states that matter, and just how long do you think the GOP can rely on that and win??

My answers, personally, are not many and not long.

I mean, just imagine if the non-college educated vote in states like MN, OH and PA undergo a similar transformation to what happened in AR, TN and MO during the 1990s and 2000s.  There’s still plenty of room to fall. 

[Skill and Chance]

GOP will continue to make gains with rural WWC voters, especially if they embrace Trumpist populism over billionaire donor neoliberalism (not certain they will). At the same time, not having Trump's personal baggage will help them in the suburbs, especially among women.

Serious question, for both the Trumpists and Democratic partisans who love the idea of this trend continuing ... just how many of these voters do you think there are left to flip in states that matter, and just how long do you think the GOP can rely on that and win??

My answers, personally, are not many and not long.

I am less confident in this trend than I was prior to 2020.  If Biden wins primarily by gaining with seniors, the go libertarian to appeal to young people and peak earning years professionals comeback strategy starts to look a lot better than doubling down on the cultural/economic populism strategy.  Trump has already governed considerably more libertarian than anyone expected in 2017.

[DC Al Fine]

GOP will continue to make gains with rural WWC voters, especially if they embrace Trumpist populism over billionaire donor neoliberalism (not certain they will). At the same time, not having Trump's personal baggage will help them in the suburbs, especially among women.

Serious question, for both the Trumpists and Democratic partisans who love the idea of this trend continuing ... just how many of these voters do you think there are left to flip in states that matter, and just how long do you think the GOP can rely on that and win??

My answers, personally, are not many and not long.

I'm not either of those things but:

1) A decent chunk in the Midwest and New England.

2) Not long at all barring a lot of "events" happening.

[RINO Tom]

GOP will continue to make gains with rural WWC voters, especially if they embrace Trumpist populism over billionaire donor neoliberalism (not certain they will). At the same time, not having Trump's personal baggage will help them in the suburbs, especially among women.

Serious question, for both the Trumpists and Democratic partisans who love the idea of this trend continuing ... just how many of these voters do you think there are left to flip in states that matter, and just how long do you think the GOP can rely on that and win??

My answers, personally, are not many and not long.

I mean, just imagine if the non-college educated vote in states like MN, OH and PA undergo a similar transformation to what happened in AR, TN and MO during the 1990s and 2000s.  There’s still plenty of room to fall.

I personally think this is the problem with this analysis - a tendency to compare trends to what we have seen in the South in the past too often.  The transformation of Southern politics (and, quite relatedly, the Black vote) was a monumental, decades-long event that should not be used as a framework for future "realignments."  Nothing ties "White working class" voters together like the "Southern White" identity of the Twentieth Century, much less being a Black American.

I think the GOP of, say, 2000 could reasonably expect to experience linear growth in ancestrally Democratic Southern areas in a way that they absolutely cannot in the Midwest or Northeast.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't know if this counts as d trending or not depending on what you believe, but I believe the GOP will seriously improve with hispanics once Trump is gone.

[One Term Floridian]

Probably a continuing realignment. The GOP increasingly gets stronger with WWC. Maybe some rebound in the suburbs if they drop the culture wars.

They will never drop the culture wars. The base does not care about policy, they care *only* about culture war red meat.

They did the complete opposite of what their 2012 autopsy told them to do and will do the complete opposite of what their 2020 autopsy will tell them to do.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Probably a continuing realignment. The GOP increasingly gets stronger with WWC. Maybe some rebound in the suburbs if they drop the culture wars.

They will never drop the culture wars. The base does not care about policy, they care *only* about culture war red meat.

They did the complete opposite of what their 2012 autopsy told them to do and will do the complete opposite of what their 2020 autopsy will tell them to do.

The autopsy was written by, for and off, the tools of the GOP donor class and that is precisely why it did not stand a chance with the base or with the swing voters that actually decided the 2012 election in Ohio, Iowa and Pennsylvania.

If Romney had obtained 70% of Hispanics, he still would have lost the election and furthermore, the presumption that simply endorsing legalization and then continuing to advance the Koch brother's agenda on the economy is a winning strategy for minorities, much less working class voters is not only misguided, it is insulting.

This is the Paul Ryan mindset on how Republicans should operate and govern and it is not without reason that I have thus proceeded to link and compare Ryan with Speaker Winthrop as far back as 2016 and not surprisingly they both ended up retired by age 50 and frankly without a natural political home as a result of shifts in the political landscape.

Any autopsy on the Trump period needs to account for why Trump got nominated and that is because the establishment candidates did go all in on the 2012 autopsy on immigration and the base said no thanks and went to the one person who didn't, namely Trump. When you put all of your sane eggs in one basket and the voters reject that basket, the first egg with a different basket no matter how crazy ended up nominated.

Immigration Skepticism/Resistance shall we say as a general term is going to have to be treated as a GOP litmus tests along with taxes, abortion and guns at this point. Now, there is a broad range of specific policies from David Perdue's support for merit based immigration, to Pat Toomey's opposition to sanctuary cities and many more as well as the presentation and rhetoric surrounding it that can make this more palatable or appealing.

Republicans and Conservatism are going to have to "resolutely" as Corey Booker (the real one, not the poster formerly known as such) stated in the hearings earlier, condemn all forms of racism, bigotry and even while at the same time in a responsible fashion articulating an alternative view on the immigration, and what that entails is up for discussion.