Assuming Biden wins, which D-trending areas do the GOP recover in?

[Tiger08]

This is similar to discussions in a couple other threads, but I was thinking about Romney-Clinton areas and areas that were once Titanium R that are now less R than they once were. Assuming Biden wins by about 7 in the popular vote, which areas aren't coming back for the GOP, and which ones will they at least somewhat recover in during a Biden midterm? Where will they stop the bleeding in places they are currently losing ground and which places will continue to trend D?

For the sake of this argument, the GOP becomes a party that is now more populist and has more of a "fighting" in attitude than 2012 but without someone as controversial (to put it nicely) as Trump as its main messenger. Changes its style somewhat but keeps similar political positions to what they have at the moment with maybe a few small tweaks.

[Samof94]

The MidWest seems like a good bet for the GOP on the state level in 2022. Minnesota is basically Texas for the GOP, where they have a good shot in the future.

[Hope For A New Era]

Suburbs might bounce back toward Republicans a little bit in 2022. The realignment continues, though.

[Agonized-Statism]

Well, what you're looking for is areas of backlash or lower turnout. A good place to start would be comparing Obama 2012 with Obama 2008.

[R.P. McM]

The MidWest seems like a good bet for the GOP on the state level in 2022. Minnesota is basically Texas for the GOP, where they have a good shot in the future.

With the obvious difference being that the growing parts of Minnesota are trending Democratic, the shrinking parts trending Republican. The GOP certainly has a chance of running competitive races in MN in the near-term (many of which, the state party will surely blow), but unless political trends in MSP reverse, the writing is on the wall.

[S019]

The MidWest seems like a good bet for the GOP on the state level in 2022. Minnesota is basically Texas for the GOP, where they have a good shot in the future.

With the obvious difference being that the growing parts of Minnesota are trending Democratic, the shrinking parts trending Republican. The GOP certainly has a chance of running competitive races in MN in the near-term (many of which, the state party will surely blow), but unless political trends in MSP reverse, the writing is on the wall.

Not really, Democrats still have a lot of room to fall in places like the Iron Range, and if those turn as red as some of the rurals have, down the road, then it will take a growth in MSP to overcome that.

[R.P. McM]

The MidWest seems like a good bet for the GOP on the state level in 2022. Minnesota is basically Texas for the GOP, where they have a good shot in the future.

With the obvious difference being that the growing parts of Minnesota are trending Democratic, the shrinking parts trending Republican. The GOP certainly has a chance of running competitive races in MN in the near-term (many of which, the state party will surely blow), but unless political trends in MSP reverse, the writing is on the wall.

Not really, Democrats still have a lot of room to fall in places like the Iron Range, and if those turn as red as some of the rurals have, down the road, then it will take a growth in MSP to overcome that.

Congrats — you've essentially restated exactly what I said. Over the short-term, it's essentially a wash. Over the long-term, MSP already represents well over half of MN's population and is growing much faster than the rest of the state.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably a continuing realignment. The GOP increasingly gets stronger with WWC. Maybe some rebound in the suburbs if they drop the culture wars.

[Hope For A New Era]

Probably a continuing realignment. The GOP increasingly gets stronger with WWC. Maybe some rebound in the suburbs if they drop the culture wars.

They will never drop the culture wars. The base does not care about policy, they care *only* about culture war red meat.

[Sol]

🎶 Trends, they don't last forever...🎶 (to the tune of Seven Nation Army).

[Indy Texas]

There could be a temporary bounceback in the suburbs, but I'd imagine that would be like the brief resurgence Democrats had in places like Appalachia and the South in the late Bush years. Eventually, demographic gravity will kick in.

[MarkD]

Probably a continuing realignment. The GOP increasingly gets stronger with WWC. Maybe some rebound in the suburbs if they drop the culture wars.

The conservative party will never stop trying to conserve traditional values.

[RINO Tom]

Probably a continuing realignment. The GOP increasingly gets stronger with WWC. Maybe some rebound in the suburbs if they drop the culture wars.

They will never drop the culture wars. The base does not care about policy, they care *only* about culture war red meat.

What would you say your base cares about?  Lmao.

[Hope For A New Era]

Probably a continuing realignment. The GOP increasingly gets stronger with WWC. Maybe some rebound in the suburbs if they drop the culture wars.

They will never drop the culture wars. The base does not care about policy, they care *only* about culture war red meat.

What would you say your base cares about?  Lmao.

Not letting billionaires destroy...um, everything.

[Smash255]

In most cases they don't.  The GOP did too much to embrace Trump and Trump has completely taken over so many aspects of the party it will be very difficult to gain back what they lost.  Many of the GOP problems in the suburbs pre-date Trump, he just mashed the pedal to the medal on it.  Perhaps a slight clawback in some areas could happen, but it will only be a fraction of what they lost. 

[Ye We Can]

The suburbs obviously.  Some more than others.  It could take a long time to get decent margins to win some states that were competitive before, but the GOP need them to win regardless.

[RINO Tom]

A Republican Party that isn't competitive in suburbs is pointless and a basic non-entity.  The GOP will figure that out the easy way or the hard way, lol.  A plurality of its voters today are quite obviously suburban, even still.

[Skill and Chance]

The next Republican president after Trump wins by improving with the urban working class.  Think winning outright in places like IL-03 and MI-05 and going from 15% to 35% in a bunch of VRA districts. 

[MT Treasurer]

The next Republican president after Trump wins by improving with the urban working class.  Think winning outright in places like IL-03 and MI-05 and going from 15% to 35% in a bunch of VRA districts. 

Probably this, but they’d also hold their own in most suburbs/exurbs in the North, which have seen less population growth than the metropolitan areas of the South and where the effects of generational turnover and migration have been less dramatic. Think places like PA-01.

[Skill and Chance]

The next Republican president after Trump wins by improving with the urban working class.  Think winning outright in places like IL-03 and MI-05 and going from 15% to 35% in a bunch of VRA districts. 

Probably this, but they’d also hold their own in most suburbs/exurbs in the North, which have seen less population growth than the metropolitan areas of the South and where the effects of generational turnover and migration have been less dramatic. Think places like PA-01.

I think the jury is still out on this until we see if/how much Biden improves over Clinton in the North.  If education polarization continues, the 3 most college+ swing states are actually NH, MN, and ME in that order.  Could this explain the big Biden snapback in polling of those 3 states vs. other 2016 swing states?  I agree that places like WI/MI/OH/IA are gone for Dems in the long run, and if you are betting on education polarization over racial polarization, alarm bells should be going off over New Mexico which less college+ than Ohio!  Though perhaps that is mitigated by NM having a ton of postgrads?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

GOP will continue to make gains with rural WWC voters, especially if they embrace Trumpist populism over billionaire donor neoliberalism (not certain they will). At the same time, not having Trump's personal baggage will help them in the suburbs, especially among women.

[forsythvoter]

It really depends on how the parties orient themselves over the next few years. If Biden really governs as a moderate, I think a lot of suburbs like mine will continue to move towards the Democratic party, especially if the Trump wing of the GOP remains the dominant force. However, if the AOC types come to dominate Democratic politics, I think these areas will trend back towards the GOP.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The MidWest seems like a good bet for the GOP on the state level in 2022. Minnesota is basically Texas for the GOP, where they have a good shot in the future.

It's not though, Texas Democrats are gaining in the growing Texas Cities and Suburbs(rural areas are mostly republican except the very Hispanic ones which are democratic but they are so small that their votes don't matter much).  Minnesota Republican are gaining in the Rural Iron Range and Driftless Area which have declining populations while the growing twin-cities and their suburbs are trending democratic.

[Samof94]

Can the GOP win Ohio’s Senate seat in 2024?

[RINO Tom]

GOP will continue to make gains with rural WWC voters, especially if they embrace Trumpist populism over billionaire donor neoliberalism (not certain they will). At the same time, not having Trump's personal baggage will help them in the suburbs, especially among women.

Serious question, for both the Trumpists and Democratic partisans who love the idea of this trend continuing ... just how many of these voters do you think there are left to flip in states that matter, and just how long do you think the GOP can rely on that and win??

My answers, personally, are not many and not long.