GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 03:42:07 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas  (Read 5277 times)
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,327
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

« on: July 04, 2020, 04:15:16 PM »

If Biden won by 30, which won’t happen, he’d win every single state. Don’t assume a uniform swing in blowouts like that because at a certain point the Dem margin is maxed out. It’s even somewhat of a risky assumption (though a good baseline) with a 10 point margin.

If Biden won by 30, I'd be 90% sure that he loses at least two of WY, OK, WV, AL, these states wouldn't flip unless Biden won by 40 or 50, which would be a landslide of unprecedented proportions, only in one contested election in 1804, has a candidate won the PV by over 37%. In that election, the Federalists still won two states (CT and DE), no candidate is getting a 50 state sweep, unless they are actually unopposed. In 1820, even though Monroe was unopposed, he actually lost Massachusetts in the PV to Federalist electors, but still won their EV's. Not to mention, these elections were in far-less polarized times, even if Trump was absolutely blown out, he would still win at least 1 ruby red state.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.018 seconds with 14 queries.