GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas

[wbrocks67]

Where's the proof that McLaughlin did those?

We know Trump paid McLaughlin to do *some* internal polling, but it doesn't mean that they are doing *all* the internal polling.

Meanwhile, some people think these are fake (Trump team making it up) but I don't buy that. They wouldn't embarrass themselves by adding in Kansas.

Montana is believable. Obama nearly won it in 2008.

Kansas - yeah, I understand it voted wildly for Trump last time. But KS also seems like a very moderate Republican state. Governor and Prez are not the same thing, but they did vote for Laura Kelly. It IS possible. And it's entirely possible that a lot of those moderate Republicans completely soured on Trump.

People like to keep assuming that things like that can't happen just b/c of a state's recent history. When some polls show Biden up 14% nationally... honestly, anything is possible at this point. We're in an unprecedented situation with a historically unpopular president.

[wbrocks67]

KANSAS?!?

That only happens if Biden is up, like, 15 nationally.

Which isn’t far off from where high quality polls have found him lately.

Yeah, why are people acting as if that's a surprise? We've had multiple polls now of him near or at 14.

[wbrocks67]

We've had Biden up slightly in Georgia for a few weeks now, but have yet to see him lead in Kansas. It's gotten close under a surge turnout model, but never a lead.

What polling company do you work for? How close has he been in Kansas? <5? <10?

[wbrocks67]

A Trump internal having Trump down in Kansas to me likely signifies this:

Trump has a crappy pollster or a pollster who got an outlier-ish (on the bad side for Trump) week, and some official who is not very loyal to Trump has leaked the numbers to spin it and portray Trump as the next Herbert Hoover.

The other explanation is that this is a deliberate spin by people loyal to Trump who want to massively lower expectations, but this seems too far-fetched because like there's a limit, not even Biden's performance in NH primary lowered expectations this much.

It’s not a Trump internal. It’s a GOP internal coming from other campaigns, probably senate.

Aaaah
Well my first point remains except it's the GOP other campaigns who have a crappy pollster (and a lot of leakers)

People need to really stop with the whole "I think this is impossible personally so it's never going to happen"

We are literally seeing Biden +14 national margins. A LOT is possible.

[wbrocks67]

If Michigan and Wisconsin were gone, then so would PA.