People need to really stop with the whole "I think this is impossible personally so it's never going to happen"
We are literally seeing Biden +14 national margins. A LOT is possible.
Well first of all, the election will not last as Biden+14 for long. It will eventually tighten. Even an 8 point lead would be absolutely massive and the biggest win since what, Reagan 1984?.
But even if you believe the election will be Biden+14, Kansas would still vote for Trump and it would not even be a razor thin margin (probably like Trump+3 or something like that)
If the end result was Biden+14, here is what I think the map would look like this:
SC and AK are really tossups that could go either way, though because of elasticity I think SC votes Trump and AK votes Biden. MS, MO, IN, KS and MT would probably be wins by Trump of around 4-6 points as well. Possibly Utah as well though that one was so weird in 2016 that who really knows what would happen there.
But to actually flip them Biden probably needs to be winning by 20 points, not just a mere 14 points. If Biden wins by 60-40 or more, then the floodgates do indeed open and a map like this becomes possible if Biden wins by say, 21 points (60-39)
In my opinion, with varying levels of "landslide", there comes a different set of states that flip.
Up to 10 point wins the states that open up are straightforward.
At Biden+14/15, the following states open up: SC, AK
At Biden+20/21, the following states open up: MS, UT*, MO, IN, MT, KS, NE-01
At Biden+27, the following states open up: NE-at large, TN, AL
At Biden+30, the following states open up: SD, KY, ID
Beyond Biden+30, who knows.
