GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas

[Panda Express]

KANSAS?!?

That only happens if Biden is up, like, 15 nationally.

Probably but it is worth noting that Kansas is actually fairly well educated compared to most other states (It ranks #17 in the country for bachelor's degree attainment - ahead of Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconson)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news for Bollier

[Alben Barkley]

I think it’s time to consider that Missouri poll may have more merit than people thought, by the way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think it’s time to consider that Missouri poll may have more merit than people thought, by the way.

Dems arent winning MO

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Will Biden get above 50% in Johnson county?

[Brittain33]

It says they’re private Republican polls in the article. So they’re probably polls conducted by Senate campaigns in those states which have no need to impress Trump with fake numbers.

[Hope For A New Era]

KANSAS?!?

That only happens if Biden is up, like, 15 nationally.

Probably but it is worth noting that Kansas is actually fairly well educated compared to most other states (It ranks #17 in the country for bachelor's degree attainment - ahead of Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconson)

That's the key. Kansas has always been very middle-class and educated. Add in the increasing diversity in the western part of the state, and we may very well see some surprises! I don't think Biden is going to win it, but it's looking very much like we could see Trump's margin reduced to single digits.

A Biden victory in Kansas would be a 21-point swing, which would be absolutely insane. Would top Indiana 2008 for sure (given Kansas's voting history).

I think it’s time to consider that Missouri poll may have more merit than people thought, by the way.

I'm still a doubter, but it's an encouraging sign. I just keep going back to that Trump +2 poll in August 2016. Polls have been overestimating Democrats pretty consistently here since around 2015.

Will Biden get above 50% in Johnson county?

Looking pretty likely. He'll win it regardless, but I think the size of his win could become pretty impressive if this keeps up.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It says they’re private Republican polls in the article. So they’re probably polls conducted by Senate campaigns in those states which have no need to impress Trump with fake numbers.

This is my suspicion as well.

[NOVA Green]

KANSAS?!?

That only happens if Biden is up, like, 15 nationally.

Probably but it is worth noting that Kansas is actually fairly well educated compared to most other states (It ranks #17 in the country for bachelor's degree attainment - ahead of Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconson)

Kansas is a relatively small state (Population speaking) with only about 2.9 Million Residents....

Supporting the Confederacy in Kansas, which has long since moved beyond the the "Bleeding Kansas / Bloody Kansas" of what was essentially a proxy war between Slavers and Abolitionists, in my book is not a winning strategy within a State where internecine warfare between Far-Right and Centrist Republicans have turned off massive swaths of voters....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bleeding_Kansas#:~:text=Bleeding%20Kansas%2C%20Bloody%20Kansas%2C%20or,the%20proposed%20state%20of%20Kansas.

If we look where people actually live starting with essentially suburban KC:

1.)

Johnson County: (20% of the Population)
Wyandotte County: (6% of the Population)

It is not inconceivable at all that Biden is leading by massive margins within these two Counties...

2.) Now let's look at the top ten Counties in KS in terms of Population:



Now we're looking at roughly close to 65% of the Population of Kansas....

3.) Sedgwick County-- 18% of KS POP (Metro Wichita) is obviously ground zero if KS is tightening up this much....   (36-54 Clinton-Trump)

4.) Shawnee County- (Metro Topeka)-  6.2% of KS Pop. (44-47 Clinton-Trump)

5.) Douglas County- (Metro Lawrence)- 4.0% of KS Pop (62-29 Clinton-Trump).

I could go on to the other Counties on the list, but yeah it's entirely plausible if massive swings are happening in Metro KC, combined with Metro Wichita flipping hard, it's entirely plausible, although granted the relatively small % of the voters who reside out in Western KS will likely vote the same way as in NE-03....

6.) Seriously though, this makes me wonder if NE-01 might potentially be in play....

[Eraserhead]

You would think that Biden would win Montana before Kansas but okay.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://t.co/hW77D0HOgz

Private R polls show the president struggling even in conservative states, leading Mr. Biden by less than five points in Montana and trailing him in Georgia and even Kansas, according to G.O.P. officials who have seen the data

IT'S HAPPENING!

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

https://t.co/hW77D0HOgz

Private R polls show the president struggling even in conservative states, leading Mr. Biden by less than five points in Montana and trailing him in Georgia and even Kansas, according to G.O.P. officials who have seen the data

IT'S HAPPENING!

CALL ME NOSTRADAMUS BABY


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=320925.msg6814145#msg6814145


inb4 Jynx'd

[MT Treasurer]

You would think that Biden would win Montana before Kansas but okay.

Not necessarily. I’m not sure KS has (had) similarly fast-growing conservative areas as MT, where Republican strength in counties like Flathead, Yellowstone, and to a lesser extent Ravalli has been fueled by oil workers, white evangelicals/social conservatives, small business owners, and retirees over the last two decades. That growth (by MT standards) has stalled somewhat, and new waves of migration (particularly into the Western part of the state) are definitely more D-friendly and should be a serious cause for concern if you’re the MTGOP and thinking long-term, but KS has so far experienced stronger Democratic trends in its most populous counties.

KS also has a larger non-white (especially African American) population and has seen less of an erosion of Democratic support in rural areas (in part because rural/small-town KS is essentially maxed out for the GOP) and among blue-collar workers/union voters than MT.

That’s not to say that MT wouldn’t be very close if Biden somehow won KS (it definitely would be), but it could certainly vote 1-3 points to the right of KS.

[pbrower2a]

Kansas also has a fast-growing Mexican-American population. See also Nebraska.

[GlobeSoc]

fwiw, in 2008, the most recent dem landslide year, the west trended d across the board, perhaps kansas being close/democratic is a signal that that might be happening again but much more intensely? Would vibe with the Colorado safe d landslide polls/the general indications that arizona will flip/montana being close according to this stuff...

[NOVA Green]

https://t.co/hW77D0HOgz

Private R polls show the president struggling even in conservative states, leading Mr. Biden by less than five points in Montana and trailing him in Georgia and even Kansas, according to G.O.P. officials who have seen the data

IT'S HAPPENING!

CALL ME NOSTRADAMUS BABY


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=320925.msg6814145#msg6814145


inb4 Jynx'd

Well.... although personally I am a bit skeptical that KS will vote DEM in 2020, and (certainly not based upon one internal Republican Poll), you can and certainly should claim credit against the nay-sayers after reviewing your 2019 post and the responses.

Naturally had you predicted the current national poll margins in 2019, obviously you might have been met with less sarcasm and abuse.

Still... hat's off for raising a serious question and massive flag and a prescient observation regarding shifts in KS

Next question obviously would performing statistics and discussing with maps....

[BlueSwan]

What’s the matter with Kansas?

[Former President tack50]

Yeah no, Trump will win Kansas and by double digits at that (maybe if he does lose by like 10 points nationally Kansas can be like Trump+8 or something I suppose)

[SnowLabrador]

Good news for Bollier

For once you make perfect sense. Even against Marshall, I think Bollier will outperform Biden. That said, I wish we could see the actual numbers.

[The Mikado]

I'm trying to imagine the reverse.

At the General Eric Democrat campaign HQ:
"Excuse me, Sir, but, the latest internals have you, Gen Eric Democrat, down in New Jersey and Oregon, with a lead of under 5 in Maryland."

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah no, Trump will win Kansas and by double digits at that (maybe if he does lose by like 10 points nationally Kansas can be like Trump+8 or something I suppose)

Dems dont have to win KS, AK, AL, or SC, but they can come close in those states to push Gross, Jones, Harrison, Bullock and Bollier across the finish line, as well as Gallioway in MO.

Just like Collins and Tillis, Kean Jr and Sununu can win with moderate appeal

Gross can win being an Indy and in an election like this. Sullivian is now put on Chuck Todd's list of vulnerable Rs like Harrison and Bollier are

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My first thought is that this could just be some sort of red herring to throw off the Biden campaign and to try and strike some complacency into Democratic voters.

My second thought is that we're currently in a Biden +10 environment, and that a Kansas flip isn't too far fetched in that case. If Biden is crushing it in the suburbs, he could easily replicate Laura Kelly's 2018 win in the state by winning Johnson County in a landslide while performing respectably for a Democrat in the rural parts. A landslide win could yield multiple surprises on election night, especially if it's a double digit blowout for Biden. After all, Obama winning Indiana in 2008 was also considered unthinkable until it actually happened, and he won the popular vote by 7 points.

[Inmate Trump]

Is this be an accurate Biden +10/winning Kansas map?

[Adam Griffin]

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Is this be an accurate Biden +10/winning Kansas map?

Alaska could go dem, but I am not super confident about this prediction because Alaska is hard as hell to predict