GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas

[Yoda]

If trump is really only up by 5 in Montana, wouldn't he be in real danger of losing Utah as well?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

https://twitter.com/Scaramucci/status/1279766892077555712
Don't know how trustworthy Scaramucci is.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Scaramucci/status/1279766892077555712
Don't know how trustworthy Scaramucci is.

If Wisconsin is gone for Trump, that's ballgame.

[wbrocks67]

If Michigan and Wisconsin were gone, then so would PA.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/Scaramucci/status/1279766892077555712
Don't know how trustworthy Scaramucci is.

If Wisconsin is gone for Trump, that's ballgame.

In before "Don't assume anything and don't try in GA/TX"

[The Mikado]

Here's the thing...

We have two public polls with Biden leading in the high single digits in WI. We know that and don't say "WI is gone for Trump." If a GOP internal had, say, Biden up 7 in WI, how does that alter our thinking?

[NOVA Green]

If trump is really only up by 5 in Montana, wouldn't he be in real danger of losing Utah as well?

That's an interesting question, especially since the whole McMullin protest vote scene was totally different than we same in most other places where essentially we could look at Green & Libertarian Voters and then try to game out how they would fall in an election without two extremely unpopular GE Presidential Candidates...

What % would Biden need to win in Salt Lake, Utah, and Davis & Weber Counties to make this a possibility?

Will McMullin be able to come close to capturing 2016 levels of support as a Constitution Party Candidate in 2020?

How many Obama > Trump voters are there in Utah?

Obama hit 34% in '16 against McCain, so I would assume Biden would need to hit something like 40% at min to be competitive, even assuming a strong 3rd Party Vote?

It's actually plausible that Utah might have weird dynamics (Just like '16) when it comes to a 2nd Trump term, but we are obviously going much deeper into unchartered territory beyond even '16 for my brain to grok what that would look like.

[Badger]

Kansas also has a fast-growing Mexican-American population. See also Nebraska.

From West Kansas newspaper articles I've read which quoted local Democratic officials, they're still bearish about their chances because voter registration and turnout rates of Hispanic voters in Kansas is god-awful compared even to places like the Rio Grande Valley.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Why are we treating “leaked internals” without hard numbers behind them like they’re serious? Have we not learned our lesson from this?

[Badger]

Why are we treating “leaked internals” without hard numbers behind them like they’re serious? Have we not learned our lesson from this?

Because in this case leaked internals are providing bad news for the side leaking them.

Besides, it's nice to dream.