NJ-08: Oseguara vs. Sires

[Pollster]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters leave, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

[Pollster]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

This is blatantly my opinion, he's to my right considerably on multiple issues, specifically foreign policy.

My guess is Oseguera is peaking too late and, at best, will perform similarly to Booker rather than Bowman. The structural obstacles in place against defeating the machine's choice in NJ exacerbates this.

[Pollster]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

This is blatantly my opinion, he's to my right considerably on multiple issues, specifically foreign policy.

My guess is Oseguera is peaking too late and, at best, will perform similarly to Booker rather than Bowman. The structural obstacles in place against defeating the machine's choice in NJ exacerbates this.

Like someone else said, I'll believe a New Jersey primary challenger defeating the machine when I see it. However, if there is any NJ seat where the primary succeeds, it's going to be here since Sires is sitting in a demographic time bomb. If this was a different state he probably would have lost to a Hispanic challenger a long time ago. 

Sires is Cuban, has a distinct accent, and speaks fluent Spanish. The Cuban population in the district are pretty contained to the northern part near Union City, North Bergen, and Sires' native West New York. So long as these constituencies remain in Sires' district, he's probably safe.