NJ-08: Oseguara vs. Sires

[YE]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1278731409746771968?s=20

This is NJ so I have skepticism but Oseguara has access to column A in two out of the four counties and it's been a wild primary cycle so far. Worth keeping an eye on though my guess is they're just being overly cautious.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Hopefully Sires keeps his seat and doesn’t get caught asleep at the wheel.

[BudgieForce]

I used to live in this district. I cant imagine Sires being in any real danger. He's well known and well liked. Turnout will probably be in the toilet though, so I can imagine some money being spent to avoid a Crowley 2.0 from happening.

[OneJ]

According to this article, Oseguera outraised Sires although neither of them raised much ($39,044 to $12,501 respectively). It probably doesn't mean much, but thought it was worth pointing out.

[Ferguson97]

The election is in 5 days and the vast majority of people have already voted by mail

Just burning money at this point

[Pollster]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters leave, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

[Pollster]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

This is blatantly my opinion, he's to my right considerably on multiple issues, specifically foreign policy.

My guess is Oseguera is peaking too late and, at best, will perform similarly to Booker rather than Bowman. The structural obstacles in place against defeating the machine's choice in NJ exacerbates this.

[Oryxslayer]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

This is blatantly my opinion, he's to my right considerably on multiple issues, specifically foreign policy.

My guess is Oseguera is peaking too late and, at best, will perform similarly to Booker rather than Bowman. The structural obstacles in place against defeating the machine's choice in NJ exacerbates this.

Like someone else said, I'll believe a New Jersey primary challenger defeating the machine when I see it. However, if there is any NJ seat where the primary succeeds, it's going to be here since Sires is sitting in a demographic time bomb. If this was a different state he probably would have lost to a Hispanic challenger a long time ago.  I am an idiot.

[Roll Roons]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

This is blatantly my opinion, he's to my right considerably on multiple issues, specifically foreign policy.

My guess is Oseguera is peaking too late and, at best, will perform similarly to Booker rather than Bowman. The structural obstacles in place against defeating the machine's choice in NJ exacerbates this.

Like someone else said, I'll believe a New Jersey primary challenger defeating the machine when I see it. However, if there is any NJ seat where the primary succeeds, it's going to be here since Sires is sitting in a demographic time bomb. If this was a different state he probably would have lost to a Hispanic challenger a long time ago. 

Sires is Hispanic.

[Pollster]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

This is blatantly my opinion, he's to my right considerably on multiple issues, specifically foreign policy.

My guess is Oseguera is peaking too late and, at best, will perform similarly to Booker rather than Bowman. The structural obstacles in place against defeating the machine's choice in NJ exacerbates this.

Like someone else said, I'll believe a New Jersey primary challenger defeating the machine when I see it. However, if there is any NJ seat where the primary succeeds, it's going to be here since Sires is sitting in a demographic time bomb. If this was a different state he probably would have lost to a Hispanic challenger a long time ago. 

Sires is Cuban, has a distinct accent, and speaks fluent Spanish. The Cuban population in the district are pretty contained to the northern part near Union City, North Bergen, and Sires' native West New York. So long as these constituencies remain in Sires' district, he's probably safe.

[Oryxslayer]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

This is blatantly my opinion, he's to my right considerably on multiple issues, specifically foreign policy.

My guess is Oseguera is peaking too late and, at best, will perform similarly to Booker rather than Bowman. The structural obstacles in place against defeating the machine's choice in NJ exacerbates this.

Like someone else said, I'll believe a New Jersey primary challenger defeating the machine when I see it. However, if there is any NJ seat where the primary succeeds, it's going to be here since Sires is sitting in a demographic time bomb. If this was a different state he probably would have lost to a Hispanic challenger a long time ago. 

Sires is Cuban, has a distinct accent, and speaks fluent Spanish. The Cuban population in the district are pretty contained to the northern part near Union City, North Bergen, and Sires' native West New York. So long as these constituencies remain in Sires' district, he's probably safe.

Then I am an idiot. For some reason, I assumed he wasn't Caribbean. Ignore everything I said after the part where primary challengers don't beat the machine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Hopefully Sires keeps his seat and doesn’t get caught asleep at the wheel.

If he's moving against a challenge that wasn't even publicly on the radar, he's anything but asleep at the wheel. This looks like insurance to kill a bid before it can even get serious rather than a desperate response to a serious challenge and I think his nomination is all but guaranteed.

[ON Progressive]

Any anti-Iran Deal Democrat deserves to be primaried, so hope he loses.

[morgieb]

This is a district that has seen a lot of new voters come in/old voters come out, so certainly possible Sires' name recognition has gone down. In primaries where everybody has low name rec, having the ballot in front of you for weeks does give voters plenty of time to become familiar with all of the candidates on their own terms.

Still, as I mentioned in another thread, I'll believe an NJ primary challenger winning when I see it. Sires is, by far, the worst of the NJ Dems in totally safe seats, so nice to see him getting at least a small scare.

What’s wrong with Sires?

Voted against the Iran deal.

[Ferguson97]

Any anti-Iran Deal Democrat deserves to be primaried, so hope he loses.

Does his primary opponent support it?