Sanity check: CO or SC

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

?

SC, since a Biden mega landslide is more likely than a Trump wave.

If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

?

SC, since a Biden mega landslide is more likely than a Trump wave.

If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.

How?

The reasons why people who normally are safe R or tilt R voters would be willing to dump Trump don't really apply to Senate races, especially in a state such as South Carolina that hasn't suffered as much from coronavirus as the nation has. Moreover, if it looks like a D will get the White House, those voters will be less likely to cast a protest vote against Graham by voting third party instead of R. They'll instead vote R to keep a check against Biden, especially when it comes to appointing judges.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

?

SC, since a Biden mega landslide is more likely than a Trump wave.

If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.

How?

The reasons why people who normally are safe R or tilt R voters would be willing to dump Trump don't really apply to Senate races, especially in a state such as South Carolina that hasn't suffered as much from coronavirus as the nation has. Moreover, if it looks like a D will get the White House, those voters will be less likely to cast a protest vote against Graham by voting third party instead of R. They'll instead vote R to keep a check against Biden, especially when it comes to appointing judges.

You give way too much credit to the intellect of swing voters.

They don't need to be all thinking that way for Graham to gain an advantage. For that matter I still expect Trump to win South Carolina despite all that's happened, and it's not unreasonable to expect Graham to do at least as well as Trump this year. I can't imagine there will be many Trump/Harrison voters, so most Trump voters who don't vote for Graham will either vote third-party or not vote in the Senate race, and that's less likely to happen if Trump is widely expected to lose nationally.