Sanity check: CO or SC
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:37:12 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Sanity check: CO or SC
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Which option is more likely?
#1
Gardner wins in Colorado
 
#2
Harrison wins in South Carolina
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 72

Author Topic: Sanity check: CO or SC  (Read 1056 times)
Woody
SirWoodbury
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,047


Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 02, 2020, 11:47:05 AM »

?
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2020, 11:47:54 AM »

SC, since a Biden mega landslide is more likely than a Trump wave.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2020, 11:50:24 AM »

They're about even right now.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2020, 11:53:45 AM »

Also Hot Take: Hickenlooper wins by more than Graham.

Hickenlooper by 12, Graham by 9
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,589
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2020, 11:56:56 AM »

Just for you

Harrison winning
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 12:06:16 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2020, 12:11:45 PM by MR. CORY BOOKER »

Harrison and Warnock become Senators, upset of 2020. Mfume can become next DC Senator, he ran the NAACP' and ran against Cardin in 2006 and lost

Harrison always had a better chance than Cal Cunningham whom consistently underpolls and Tillis is well liked
Logged
The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,175
Norway


Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -7.48

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2020, 12:13:09 PM »

Just for you

Paula Jean Swearengin winning
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2020, 12:24:28 PM »

Tbh I expect Perdue to win SC-SEN because of write-in votes in the metropolitan areas of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2020, 12:26:21 PM »

Tbh I expect Perdue to win SC-SEN because of write-in votes in the metropolitan areas of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.

Tbh Perdue’s coattails might even extend to NC. Tillis wins 59-38
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,678


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2020, 12:50:30 PM »

Harrison (Sane).
Logged
NewYorkExpress
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,823
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2020, 01:18:25 PM »

Both are equally unlikely, but I'll give Harrison a narrow edge since he has a more favorable political climate.

That said, John Hickenlooper is not a strong candidate at this point...but Lindsey Graham hasn't been a strong incumbent in years.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,257
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2020, 01:18:39 PM »

At this point SC, but both are very unlikely
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,801
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2020, 01:48:37 PM »



The states aren't gonna line up perfectly in the blue wall, Bullock is doing much better than Cal Cunningham.

It lined up perfectly last time, but Dems didn't have House seats in the Sunbelt that they won in 2018 after they took over the House.

Harrison, Bullock, Warnock, Ossoff and Hickenlooper win. Jones still can win too
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,575


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2020, 01:49:19 PM »

CO, but I think the people who said SC have reasonable arguments and are sane.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 02:17:55 PM »

Tbh I expect Perdue to win SC-SEN because of write-in votes in the metropolitan areas of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.

Yeah, I’d almost say that he’d win CO-SEN as well, but Daines will probably win Jefferson county by triple digits because of his soothing bipartisanship.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 02:20:42 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2020, 02:24:07 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Tbh I expect Perdue to win SC-SEN because of write-in votes in the metropolitan areas of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.

Yeah, I’d almost say that he’d win CO-SEN as well, but Daines will probably win Jefferson county by triple digits because of his soothing bipartisanship.

If Trump loses the presidential election thanks to suburban backlash, party elites who didn't encourage Perdue to run in 2016 have only themselves to blame. I'm told there are whole neighbourhoods swarming with "It's David or we vote Democrat" signs.
Logged
UncleSam
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2020, 04:21:58 PM »

More likely that Gardner wins but more likely that Harrison keeps it closer. I.E. CO is a lot swingier. Both are big underdogs though.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2020, 04:25:46 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2020, 05:09:56 PM by Western Democrat »

Tbh I expect Perdue to win SC-SEN because of write-in votes in the metropolitan areas of Greenville, Columbia, and Charleston.

Yeah, I’d almost say that he’d win CO-SEN as well, but Daines will probably win Jefferson county by triple digits because of his soothing bipartisanship.

If Trump loses the presidential election thanks to suburban backlash, party elites who didn't encourage Perdue to run in 2016 have only themselves to blame. I'm told there are whole neighbourhoods swarming with "It's David or we vote Democrat" signs.
Its a God Damn shame Perdue didn’t run in 2016. He would have made 1972 look like a close race. Clinton wouldn’t have gotten more than 30% of the vote. He truly would’ve been a transformative president. The next Reagan, I tell you. Perdue is a True Conservative ™ and the future of the Republican Party.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2020, 08:29:53 PM »


If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2020, 11:09:12 PM »


If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.

How?
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2020, 06:50:51 AM »


If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.

How?

The reasons why people who normally are safe R or tilt R voters would be willing to dump Trump don't really apply to Senate races, especially in a state such as South Carolina that hasn't suffered as much from coronavirus as the nation has. Moreover, if it looks like a D will get the White House, those voters will be less likely to cast a protest vote against Graham by voting third party instead of R. They'll instead vote R to keep a check against Biden, especially when it comes to appointing judges.
Logged
😥
andjey
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,510
Ukraine
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2020, 06:56:14 AM »

In this environment, obviously, South Carolina
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 03, 2020, 07:13:10 AM »


If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.

How?

The reasons why people who normally are safe R or tilt R voters would be willing to dump Trump don't really apply to Senate races, especially in a state such as South Carolina that hasn't suffered as much from coronavirus as the nation has. Moreover, if it looks like a D will get the White House, those voters will be less likely to cast a protest vote against Graham by voting third party instead of R. They'll instead vote R to keep a check against Biden, especially when it comes to appointing judges.

You give way too much credit to the intellect of swing voters.
Logged
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 42,157
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2020, 10:40:20 AM »


If it's looking like a Biden mega landslide, that probably helps Graham more than it hurts him.

How?

The reasons why people who normally are safe R or tilt R voters would be willing to dump Trump don't really apply to Senate races, especially in a state such as South Carolina that hasn't suffered as much from coronavirus as the nation has. Moreover, if it looks like a D will get the White House, those voters will be less likely to cast a protest vote against Graham by voting third party instead of R. They'll instead vote R to keep a check against Biden, especially when it comes to appointing judges.

You give way too much credit to the intellect of swing voters.

They don't need to be all thinking that way for Graham to gain an advantage. For that matter I still expect Trump to win South Carolina despite all that's happened, and it's not unreasonable to expect Graham to do at least as well as Trump this year. I can't imagine there will be many Trump/Harrison voters, so most Trump voters who don't vote for Graham will either vote third-party or not vote in the Senate race, and that's less likely to happen if Trump is widely expected to lose nationally.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 13 queries.