Spain FPTP simulation

[Skye]

Wait so you're creating districts instead of assigning just seats to provinces? That sounds like it'll take a lot of work.

Except in my province, which has 2 districts and literally half of the population lives in the capital city, so that one should be easy.

Also, if it's FPTP, wouldn't that complicate projections a bit? For example, right-leaning places would be won by the PSOE since the right is still split in three.

[Skye]

My guess is that you'll be able to draft a Left-leaning district in Valladolid if you combine all the poorer neighborhoods in the north (La Rondilla, Barrio España), east (Pajarillos), and south-east (Delicias) of the city. Also, you may be able to, say, gerrymander them out and create 4 right leaning districts if you were to split them. Not many other important left wing areas in the province.

[Skye]

My guess is that you'll be able to draft a Left-leaning district in Valladolid if you combine all the poorer neighborhoods in the north (La Rondilla, Barrio España), east (Pajarillos), and south-east (Delicias) of the city. Also, you may be able to, say, gerrymander them out and create 4 right leaning districts if you were to split them. Not many other important left wing areas in the province.

I mean, I will try to draw mostly fair districts (though if I do draw a gerrymander I will certainly mention it)

Re: Valladolid, I think there will most likely be 2 districts in Valladolid, and one of them is probably competitive though it will depend on how I end up drawing it I suppose. Valladolid city is slightly too big for 2 districts though most likely I will end up overpopulating those 2 and underpopulating the 2 rural ones.

From a quick look at Valladolid, most likely there will be a safe Right district and some form of a competitive district, regardless of how I do my division (of course if Spain was the US, I'd expect Valladolid to just get gerrymandered )

In Castille-Leon at large I suppose there will be probably be 1-2 Left wing seats in Western Leon and as you say possibly 1 competitive district in Valladolid in addition to the surprisingly competitive Soria.

If you allow a suggestion, the Parquesol neighborhood, which has distinct limits, is 26k in population, and you could draw it along other suburban municipalities of Valladolid so that the city doesn't get overrepresented.

[Skye]

I'm following this with interest because I always enjoy hypothetical alignments and have done a few myself. I'm eager to see what happens when you hit the urban and 'localist/separatist' areas like Catalonia, the Basque County, and parts of the Canaries.

Well, for Catalonia/Basque country I think I will essencially just do 3 way races between "the right", "the left" and "the separatists/nationalists". In practice this will make it a lot harder to guess the partisanship of the districts though, but I think is the fairest way to guess the partisanship there.

As for the Canaries, they are in a very awkward position. I really do not know what to do. The easiest solution would probably to just go with April results instead of November, and then merge CC into the right and NCa into the left. Though I could also treat them separately or something.

For what is worth, in Galicia and Teruel I just went with the convention eldiario.es uses (where BNG and TEx got merged into the left). If you separate them the Galicia districts all become quite a bit more right wing and the Teruel ones become interesting 3 way races.

I think this is a good base plan. Galicia is fine, especially when we consider that everyone would have to team up to dethrone the PP locally. If the local party ended up backing the PSOE govt without any serious reservations then they are probably safe to be considered part of the combined left - obviously with the key exception of PNV. This sort of distinction leaves PRC as the odd one out, but maybe they are best seen as part of the regionalism block with JxC, PNV, and the rest.

This creates a bit of a problem in Teruel IMO, since Teruel Existe voted for the Sánchez govt. It's true that Tack already packed them with the left ,but if so, the province would have gone from a clear Right win in April to a Left wing landslide in November (Eldiario.es has a swing map that shows this very clearly). It feels unrealistic if you ask me but I understand there may not be a definitive answer to the issue.

[Skye]

Salamanca: This district comprises just the provincial capital of Salamanca. While Salamanca is a university town of sorts, that means nothing in Spain so it just votes like most other rural Castillian towns and went for the right by something like 20 points.
Safe Right

Worth noting that, of the "big" (i.e., over 100k) Castille and León cities, Salamanca seems to be the most right wing one. The left as a whole doesn't even have a clear advantage in poorer neighborhoods, in fact, the right won a few precincts in said places.

Also, Salamanca has a kick-ass cathedral you should absolutely visit if you have the chance.

Vitoria-Casco Antiguo / Gasteizko Alde Zaharra: This essencially takes in the innermost parts of Vitoria, including the old town as well as some more modern inner parts of the city in the east, north and south.

Anyways this is essencially a 3 way race. PNV and surprisingly Bildu are very strong in the old medieval town, while the right (both PP and PNV) is very strong in the southern parts of the district. I think this votes for the left, which wins those northern and eastern parts and holds its own in the old medieval town, but it would definitely not be a comfortable margin
Safe Left

From what I've seen, Bildu seems to have a pretty big following in the medieval cores of the cities in the Euskal Herria region. Anyone would like to guess why?

[Skye]

D*mn, that Burgos district is disgusting lmao. Nothing like a US gerrymander, but it's still downright horrible-looking.

[Skye]

2 more provinces. This also finishes the 4 seater provinces

First of all, I would like to thank Skye for helping quite a bit with Valladolid province by providing me links to several divisions of Valladolid city as designed by their own local town hall. This allowed the partition of Valladolid to be very precise. It will never be perfect but it is a very good partition

Anyways here we go:

Valladolid (4 seats, 130k people/seat)

Skye really helped here with Valladolid city. And really his help mattered quite a bit, as I had almost no information about the rural areas. Thankffully these areas weren't entitled to much but still



Valladolid Sur: This takes in the southern half of Valladolid city, excluding the neighbourhoods to the west of the Pisuerga river. This seems to be the more right wing of the 2 districts and it voted for the right by 40-58. It comprises districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 11 of the city
Safe Right

Valladolid Norte: Meanwhile this is the northern district of Valladolid, taking in the northern half of the city, except for the neighbourhoods of Parquesol and Girón. Of the 2, this seems to be the more left wing of the 2 and it would be a competitive seat. However the margin is not close enough for me to classify it as anything other than safe as it was still 52-47
Safe Right

Valladolid Oeste - Campo de Peñafiel: This takes in the remainder of Valladolid city that is not in one of the 2 urban districts, as well as the rural areas on the east of the province. This leaves a somewhat awkwardly drawn seat but I think it is still fairly ok. As for votes, rural Castille votes right and the neighbourhoods in question of Valladolid voted for the right by 10-11 points so yeah
Safe Right

Las Tierras de Valladolid: This is essencially the rural leftovers district, taking in essencially the western half of Valladolid province. This is super rural flat farmlands for the most part. I spent 2 weeks in this area in 2017 and it was plenty of fun In any case this is conservative deep Castille regardless
Safe Right


Huelva (4 seats, 130 k people/seat)

Meanwhile Huelva was super easy and super nice to draw, though some of the districts I am unsure of their partisanship.



Huelva: In what seems to be becoming a constant here, this just takes the provincial capital of Huelva. Therefore, this is another district where we can be sure how it voted, and in this case it went right by 3 points (50-47). You could argue this is safe, however, I think 3 points is not enough to call it safe but it is just on the edge. Most certainly a competitive district though
Lean Right

Costa Occidental: This takes the coastal areas on the west of the province, up to the border with Portugal. All places in this district voted right by fairly convincing margins
Safe Right

El Condado de Huelva: This takes in the El Condado comarca as well as a couple municipalities near Huelva. This is an extremely competitive district. All towns here were close and I think they cancel each other. In general the coastal areas near Huelva vote right while the more interior areas vote left. I think the left very, very narrowly won it but it might have been won by the right. It really depends on how packed the left is on the remaining district
Lean Left

El Andévalo - Sierra de Huelva: This takes the rural northern 2/3 of Huelva province. And since this is deep rural western Andalucia, this is an incredibly left wing district and almost feels like a pack. The left probably broke 60% in here or was close to it. In any case, this obiously has gone for the left since time inmemorial and will keep doing so even with the right wing trend of the Spanish South
Safe Left

Totals
8 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
3 Lean Right
36 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(14-39-5)

Glad I could be of help. But is 52-47 margin safe for a party? lol

You split the city centre (A pretty right wing area) into two districts, and you left the PSOE-friendly Delicias neighborhood in the district with the more right-friendly areas of the city, so you essentially gerrymandered another seat for the right lol. I think that's understandable if you used what the Ayuntamiento calls "districts", which are big, and to be honest, kind of rubbish.

I guess what I would have done differently is that I would have drawn the surrounding "suburban" counties of "metro" Valladolid into one district, and the rest of the rural areas into another. But nice job anyway.

[Skye]

By the way, I am going to ask, do yo want me to keep doing the write-ups?

Obviously. This is quite interesting, and it's very impressive that you actually managed to finish it.