ME (NRSC Internal): Collins +8

[Bidenworth2020]

Very scant details on this poll, other than that it was conducted in late June and had Collins up 8 points.

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/01/opinion/contributors/susan-collins-did-her-job-sara-gideon-didnt/

[WD]

LOL An internal and they won’t even release the details? Junk

Tilt D. Gideon wins by 3-4, Biden by 7-8

[Landslide Lyndon]

So Collins was barely ahead in late April, but two months later and after all the sh**t that happened she has grown her lead to 8?
Seems legit.

[Please delete this account. :)]

Something tells me this poll might be - just maybe - utter garbage. Collins is going to lose by ~5-6 points

[Pericles]

I don't trust Republican internals, but I'm slightly concerned (troubled, perhaps?) that Collins' lead is 8 points here. It would be easier to just junk a Collins+1 poll.

[voice_of_resistance]

LOL An internal and they won’t even release the details? Junk

Tilt D. Gideon wins by 3-4, Biden by 7-8

No, Maine will likely swing hard back D, I can see Biden winning by 10-12 there. Hillary was just a uniquely bad fit for the state and Trump isn't doing himself any favors.

[S019]

This is far too large of a margin, and neither candidate is winning by this much, this race remains a tossup, and honestly will probably be the closest race this cycle.

[WD]

I don't trust Republican internals, but I'm slightly concerned (troubled, perhaps?) that Collins' lead is 8 points here. It would be easier to just junk a Collins+1 poll.

Every other Non-Partisan poll (the few that we’ve had) have show either a tie or Gideon leading. Collins is definitely the underdog in this race. She’s probably one of the most overrated incumbents tbh.

[Ferguson97]

I don't trust Republican internals, but I'm slightly concerned (troubled, perhaps?) that Collins' lead is 8 points here. It would be easier to just junk a Collins+1 poll.

A poll showing Collins+1 is plausible, believable, and would be cause for concern.

A poll showing Collins+8 is laughable and deserves to be trashed.

[Pericles]

I don't trust Republican internals, but I'm slightly concerned (troubled, perhaps?) that Collins' lead is 8 points here. It would be easier to just junk a Collins+1 poll.

A poll showing Collins+1 is plausible, believable, and would be cause for concern.

A poll showing Collins+8 is laughable and deserves to be trashed.

The usual rule with internal polls is to shave about five points off the margin of the side sponsoring the poll. So a Collins +1 internal would be pretty pathetic and confirm she is behind. This Collins +8 internal suggests that though the margin is exaggerated, maybe she's actually ahead. At least that's how I'd generally approach it. In this case my guess is the poll is junkier than most internals, but it does make me consider the prospect that Collins is up by 3 points a bit more seriously.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

This is far too large of a margin, and neither candidate is winning by this much, this race remains a tossup, and honestly will probably be the closest race this cycle.

I doubt it'll be anywhere near the closest race

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If I wanted to release really favourable Collins margins in dodgy internals, I'd give voters an RCV choice (as there will be one, eventually) and only report the first ballot.

[tjstarling]

I have a feeling Collins is being underestimated here. I read an old TNR story on Collins and it gave me an insight into her faux moderate status (as opposed to her old colleague Olympia Snowe, an actual moderate). It also gave me insight into how ingrained Collins is in Maine. Her job ratings have taken an awful hit, but an election is a choice and Collins has meaningful advantages against Gideon. She’s well know and one of the people of that second district (she harvested potatoes in Aroostook for god sakes). It’s easy to see her absolutely romping Gideon in the 2nd district and doing well enough in the 1st to win. Here’s where I go out on a bit of a limb (and hopefully highlight how female politicians are subject to additional biases regarding their appearance though I think the same issue may hurt Ossoff as well) but Gideon’s cosmopolitan appearance probably does her few favors (contrast her with a Collins, Snowe, or current Gov. Mills). All that being said, Collins is in trouble and needs to look no further than Maine’s own Margaret Chase Smith for a lesson in being denied a fifth term in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins is gonna win

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FiveThirtyEight have gotten a more complete release:

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/01/opinion/contributors/susan-collins-did-her-job-sara-gideon-didnt/

Moore Information/NRSC
June 20-24, 2020
600 registered voters

Collins 45%
Gideon 37%
Lisa Savage 3%
Max Linn 1%

This looks like serious business to me, though if the Savage votes broke for Gideon and the Linn votes for Collins thanks to RCV, the lead would shrink to +6%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if this is a oversample of Rs, this looks bad, Gideon and Sweet were leading in Dem internal by 9 pts, a few weeks back

[MT Treasurer]

Again, it’s sad that we’re not getting a reputable non-partisan poll here, but Democrats' overconfidence with regard to this particular race has always baffled me. It’s really not that hard to see how Collins forges a path to victory in this state (reading this forum you’d think ME was as Democratic as HI), and Gideon isn’t exactly an underrated candidate either. Yes, Collins is vulnerable, but she’s not even close to DOA, and it’s far from certain that this seat flips before MT/NC/GA-R/GA-S.

It’s tempting to compare this race to MT-SEN, where people just assume that the state's "partisan lean" and "polarization" will doom Bullock even though it’s pretty obvious that MT and ME have had a long history of split-ticket voting and Senate/House/state races which are uncorrelated with presidential voting. The country was very much "polarized" in 2008 and 2014 and blue state Republicans didn’t exactly fare well in those years either (in federal races), so it’s not like Collins' previous landslide victories were the norm back then.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME 2 has really changed from a Dem stronghold to an R stronghold, that's why Collins will win

[kph14]

Collins is at 45% in an internal poll which much higher name recognition as her opponent. Ranked Choice Voting will also apply, therefore the third party vote will coalesce with Gideon

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins if reelected will vote for all of Biden nominees anyways. She can still win

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Collins if reelected will vote for all of Biden nominees anyways. She can still win

That doesn't matter much in the case of court nominations because as long as she supports McConnell as Republican caucus leader, he can refuse to hold a vote and do to any nominee what he did to Garland.

[President Johnson]

Collins if reelected will vote for all of Biden nominees anyways. She can still win

Democrats need to oust her because they need a majority. The Majority Leader calls the shots, he decides which bills and which nominees for any office even get to the floor. Let alone committee seats being assigned according to majority. Moscow Mitch still being majority leader would make things a lot more complicated. Chuck Schumer needs to run the senate.

Not sure what to make of this Republican poll (which overall seem more biased than Democratic ones), but Democrats shouldn't get overconfident over this race. Collins has lost her moderate credentials to a large degree, but Maine isn't a solid blue state, even if Joe Biden is winning here by a fair margin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins if reelected will vote for all of Biden nominees anyways. She can still win

Democrats need to oust her because they need a majority. The Majority Leader calls the shots, he decides which bills and which nominees for any office even get to the floor. Let alone committee seats being assigned according to majority. Moscow Mitch still being majority leader would make things a lot more complicated. Chuck Schumer needs to run the senate.

Not sure what to make of this Republican poll (which overall seem more biased than Democratic ones), but Democrats shouldn't get overconfident over this race. Collins has lost her moderate credentials to a large degree, but Maine isn't a solid blue state, even if Joe Biden is winning here by a fair margin.

Ds can win MT, AL, SC, CO and GA, without winning AZ, NC or ME.

[Ogre Mage]

FiveThirtyEight have gotten a more complete release:

https://bangordailynews.com/2020/07/01/opinion/contributors/susan-collins-did-her-job-sara-gideon-didnt/

Moore Information/NRSC
June 20-24, 2020
600 registered voters

Collins 45%
Gideon 37%
Lisa Savage 3%
Max Linn 1%

This looks like serious business to me, though if the Savage votes broke for Gideon and the Linn votes for Collins thanks to RCV, the lead would shrink to +6%.

I am waiting to see if multiple independent polls confirm this because this is not in line with what we have seen in other polls of this race.  I certainly don't trust a single poll which is an NRSC internal.

I also noticed that article is written by --

Matthew Gagnon of Yarmouth is the chief executive officer of the Maine Policy Institute, a free market policy think tank based in Portland. A Hampden native, he previously served as a senior strategist for the Republican Governors Association in Washington, D.C.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is a bit of a downer if accurate, though I do think that the race is still at least a tossup. We can't get complacent with this race, or any Senate race really.