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« on: July 03, 2020, 06:09:46 AM » |
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A generic point I would make is for 3 cycles in a row now, Republicans have done better in the Senate then the summer polling indicated, 2014, 2016 and 2018, for whatever reason there are a lot of of soft republicans in red states that come home late, and this causes the margin to be tighter or even flips the race, here are some polls from the summer of 2018.
In Ohio, in June Brown was up 17% in a Quinnipiac poll, 17% in a Suffolk poll and 13% in a Marist poll, he won by around 7%.
In TN, Bredesen was up 3% in July of 2018 according to PPP, an Emerson poll from July had him up 6%, in the end he lost by 11%.
In AZ, an Emerson poll in June had Sinema up 8% on McSally, a YouGov poll in June had Sinema up 7%, a Marist poll in June had Sinema up 11%, in the end she won by only 2.4%.
In ND, the 1 poll that was done in June by Mason Dixon had Cramer up 4% he won by much more.
The same trend holds for other states like Indiana and Missouri, more broadly the same thing occurred in 2014 and 2016, for whatever reason, the polls in the summer were less favourable to Republicans than the final result, you can go back and look at the senate polling for 2014 and 2016 and you see the same trend.
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