MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Bullock +4
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  MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Bullock +4
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Author Topic: MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Bullock +4  (Read 1261 times)
Pollster
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« on: July 01, 2020, 07:38:50 PM »

Link

June 17-26, 517 registered voters, MOE 4.31%

Bullock 47
Daines 43
Don't know 10
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Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 08:01:31 PM »

Unbeatable Titan Steve Daines!
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 08:33:14 PM »

Yikes. Daines underperforming Trump by 18. Lean D
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I'm a (leaning towards) Malcolm Kenyatta Democrat
20RP12
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 08:33:56 PM »

Yikes. Daines underperforming Trump by 18. Lean D

That is Bullockís calling card, though.
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 08:36:02 PM »


Of course. But if Daines if doing that badly, combined with the fact the Trump will do worse than his 21 point win four years ago, Bullock probably wins by a decent margin. 51-47 imo.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 08:42:23 PM »

Good, I dont like Daines
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Orser67
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2020, 10:14:40 PM »

Not great, not terrible
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2020, 10:29:07 PM »

Bullock running ahead of Biden by almost 20 points, what a mensch.

Splitting (or ignoring) the undecided yields 52-48, which is in line with Bullock's 3 previous wins: 52.6% (2008), 49% (2012), 50.3% (2016)
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2020, 10:31:00 PM »

Junk POLL!
this was the Tester +23 Poll right?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2020, 10:39:40 PM »

Nasty poll for Daines, especially since the other numbers in other races seem very realistic, if not a little too good for Republicans
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YE
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2020, 10:41:45 PM »

Junk POLL!
this was the Tester +23 Poll right?

Wrong. It was the Tester +24 poll.

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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2020, 10:44:07 PM »

Not a good pollster, but this is probably about the best-case scenario for Bullock.
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Western Democrat
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2020, 10:46:28 PM »

Not a good pollster, but this is probably about the best-case scenario for Bullock.
Really, How so? I could see him winning by 5-6 on a really good night for Democrats
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Josh Shapiro for Governor
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2020, 11:35:31 PM »

Montana and Arizona are probably both going to have two Democratic senators, but please do tell me why centrists can't win.
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2020, 11:49:39 PM »

Montana and Arizona are probably both going to have two Democratic senators, but please do tell me why centrists can't win.

Huh Whoís saying that centrists ďcanít winĒ? It seems of anything, some on this site suggest anyone who isnít centrist (or at least any Democrat who isnít) canít win.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 04:15:35 AM »

Montana and Arizona are probably both going to have two Democratic senators, but please do tell me why centrists can't win.

Bullock and Hickenlooper might win, but Kelly is in a tough fight
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2020, 07:31:34 AM »

Not the best poll (although it seems like theyíve improved since 2018), but I have a feeling people still donít realize just how vulnerable Daines actually is. This is Democratic pick-up no. 3 after CO and AZ IMO, and the fact that Bullock is leading by 4 in a poll which has Gianforte ahead by 10 (uh-uh) and Trump winning by 14 is honestly devastating.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2020, 12:25:58 AM »

Montana and Arizona are probably both going to have two Democratic senators, but please do tell me why centrists can't win.

Bullock and Hickenlooper might win, but Kelly is in a tough fight

No.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2020, 12:29:38 AM »

Montana and Arizona are probably both going to have two Democratic senators, but please do tell me why centrists can't win.

Bullock and Hickenlooper might win, but Kelly is in a tough fight

I'm continuously baffled by your Senate predictions.

SC goes for the Dems, ME goes for the Republicans, but AZ is likely R?

Like I'm genuinely curious, who do you think wins each Senate race and what's your reasoning? I've never seen anyone have this combination of predictions.
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Annatar
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« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2020, 06:09:46 AM »

A generic point I would make is for 3 cycles in a row now, Republicans have done better in the Senate then the summer polling indicated, 2014, 2016 and 2018, for whatever reason there are a lot of of soft republicans in red states that come home late, and this causes the margin to be tighter or even flips the race, here are some polls from the summer of 2018.


In Ohio, in June Brown was up 17% in a Quinnipiac poll, 17% in a Suffolk poll and 13% in a Marist poll, he won by around 7%.

In TN, Bredesen was up 3% in July of 2018 according to PPP, an Emerson poll from July had him up 6%, in the end he lost by 11%.


In AZ, an Emerson poll in June had Sinema up 8% on McSally, a YouGov poll in June had Sinema up 7%, a Marist poll in June had Sinema up 11%, in the end she won by only 2.4%.


In ND, the 1 poll that was done in June  by Mason Dixon had Cramer up 4% he won by much more.

The same trend holds for other states like Indiana and Missouri, more broadly the same thing occurred in 2014 and 2016, for whatever reason, the polls in the summer were less favourable to Republicans than the final result, you can go back and look at the senate polling for 2014 and 2016 and you see the same trend.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2020, 07:24:47 AM »

Montana and Arizona are probably both going to have two Democratic senators, but please do tell me why centrists can't win.

Bullock and Hickenlooper might win, but Kelly is in a tough fight

I'm continuously baffled...

That's his thing, just go with it.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2020, 10:37:56 AM »

A generic point I would make is for 3 cycles in a row now, Republicans have done better in the Senate then the summer polling indicated, 2014, 2016 and 2018, for whatever reason there are a lot of of soft republicans in red states that come home late, and this causes the margin to be tighter or even flips the race, here are some polls from the summer of 2018.

Oddly, you do seem to be on to something, specifically about June.
This also checked out in 2018 with Tester (+8 in June), Manchin (+11 in June), and Donnelly (+12 in June!).

Oddly Bill Nelson escaped this (Scott led by +4 throughout the summer), for all the good it did him.

I suspect the reason is that olders voters are more reliable voters for the Senate than younger voters, since they understand it outsize importance in shaping the courts.
Given the current age discrepancy between parties, this advantages the GOP.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #22 on: July 05, 2020, 05:51:10 PM »

Actually, Daines was the only Republican who flipped a Democratic Senate seat in 2014 who didnít outperform the RCP average in November. The Tester +8 poll Epaminondas is referring to was a Gravis poll which also had Williams ahead by 6, which was at no point the state of the House race.

In fact, high-quality private polling done by the Tester campaign never showed the fluctuations we saw in public polling. It was always a narrow but consistent advantage for Tester, which is exactly what weíre seeing right now.

In terms of his background, the media coverage he has received, and the tactical shrewdness and effectiveness of his political operation, Bullock is probably in a better position than any Democrat in a competitive Senate race. The state has seen a spike in COVID-19 cases, and while that entails some risks for Bullock, the increasing likelihood that this issue will just overshadow everything else all the way until election day certainly benefits him more than Daines. Another thing Iíd add is that Republican national + outside groups only got involved relatively late (too late, foolishly) in the 2018 race, but this kind of disparity in spending/advertisement/etc. is absent from this campaign, so the fact that Daines isnít polling better than Rosendale is a daunting sign for Republicans.

I have a feeling that the posters who are expecting Daines to pull away once "polarization" suddenly kicks in in September are going to be very disappointed. Iíd at least be more open to this "Republicans will come home" argument if this was WY or OK or some other deep red state with no recent history of sending Democrats to the Senate/state capital or if this was obviously a Democratic-friendly poll, but Trump +14 and Gianforte +10 certainly doesnít suggest that this poll is overestimating Republican strength. In fact, I (unironically) have my grandpa's tractor to sell to you if you seriously think Gianforte will win by 10 points.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2020, 10:37:04 PM »

New Poll: Montana Senator by Other Source on 2020-06-26

Summary: D: 47%, R: 43%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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