Doubtful. Usually you would say Texas may have been closer, but Poppy twice lost statewide races at this point. Bush would have been similar to Dole; not a bad choice, but not a great one either. I think the only two running mates that would have made a difference are Rockefeller or Reagan. Both for unique reasons different from each other. Probably Ford would have actually won with either of these.
Reagan wouldn’t have attracted many more conservatives than Dole and likely would have turned off more moderates at the time.
Rockefeller was dropped in the first place because of fears of a conservative revolt against Ford with Rockefeller. He probably still wouldn’t have been enough to turn states like NY blue, and Carter just would have done better in less liberal states.
