Fulop wins in this scenario.
I doubt he'll be the nominee in 2025, though.
Just curious-- What makes you think that?
I think the sizable shift toward the Democrats in the northern/central New Jersey suburbs means that the NJ Democrats are likely to pick a nominee in '25 that reflects that shift. Murphy has been courting a long list of alliances with Democrats in Somerset, Union and several other urban counties. Just who that nominee would be is an open question. There's quite a few of younger suburban legislators that could run: Vin Gopal immediately jumps to mind. If any of them hold on to their seats by 2024, I could imagine any of the four 2018 House Dems potentially winning the nom. Granted I think the most likely is (unfortunately) Gottheimer, given Sherrill will likely go for the Senate seat in 2024, and Malinowski will likely go work in the Biden state department. Kim is a little bit of a wild card but he's the most vulnerable of the 4 to lose his seat.
South Jersey Democrats are in a very weird state of flux, where the white portion of their base is fading and the Burlington county suburbs are trending toward Dems and looking more like Somerset County in political outlook. That would help more Central Jersey/suburban North Jersey candidates.
This isn't to say Fulop can't or won't be the nominee; he has the name rec and funds to run and win. I just think the party with want someone from outside of the Hudson/Essex area going forward.
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