2020 Venezuelan Parliamentary electoral type event

[MRCVzla]

Trying to do some summary to give some life to the topic ...

Currently the scenario that everyone sees in Venezuela is everything is going in the direction in favor of the ruling party in their path of winning or staying with more power than they already have...

The majority opposition will most likely abstain as there are no conditions for a free and fair election, the electoral symbols of the main parties have been "kidnapped" by the Supreme Court and awarded to leading sectors that, or are favorable to the "electoral solution" to the country's crisis (AD, UNT) or to personal interests with dubious connections (PJ, VP). Meanwhile, the "opposition" sectors that are electorally qualified and sit in the so-called "National Dialogue Table" are highly discredited due to their proximity to the government and their search more akin to a "cohabitation" than a "real change" of the system.

Even Chavismo has seen dissent from some of its allies, who have shown intention to run with separate lists other than the PSUV-led, but already internal connections with the TSJ are working to prevent it, just yesterday the board of the party Fatherland for All (PPT) was intervened for the TSJ, which had planned to run together with the Communist Party (PCV) in a alliance after expressing criticism about the economic direction that the Maduro regime has taken, the court has appointed an "ad hoc" meeting with leaders more favorable to staying the alliance of the "Great Patriotic Pole" in order to guarantee some representation within the current electoral scenario. Also other chavismo "then"-ally, the Tupamaros has been intervened also to prevent run apart from the PSUV.

The CNE recently appointed by the TSJ has many challenges, not only to try to demonstrate its capacity as an "impartial" referee (good luck with that), but to adapt the electoral schedule in its different stages to the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic , including from the update of the Electoral Registry (with so many potential new voters emigrated abroad) to the development of the election day itself on December 6...

...Depending on the point of the pandemic situation at that date in the country, currently with cases and deaths every day on the rise, despite the fact that in the first months the situation was believed to be "controlled", then it exploded as in the rest of the region, and in Chavismo it has affected a lot, with several infected leaders and even one considered "notable" has died of complications from the virus. Currently, since June, there is a system of relaxation in which it alternates with a "radical quarantine" week yes, week no (a called "7+7" system), in the week that there is relaxation, banks, courts and other "non-essential" businesses work while in the quarantine only essential services are limited (health, food, transport, telecommunications, among others). In addition, it is already discussed how the return to classes of the students would be, Maduro has publicly stated that there may be something of a face-to-face return, alternating the groups of students between the days of the week, but nothing yet formal.

Returning to the electoral issue, the "express" modification that he made to the Electoral Law to increase the number of deputies was made with one purpose, to guarantee that the "collaborationist" opposition sectors can have a small representation through the vote for regional lists or for the quota of the "national list" that would be distributed through the lists of each state ... ah, and the 3 seats of the indigenous representatives will no longer be elected by popular vote but by a second-class election among the "indigenous communities "(possibly those pro-government), as was done in the controversial election of the National Constituent Assembly of 2017, which, by the way, supposedly would finally end its term at the end of this year, without any reforms to the current one Constitution, somehow confirming its role in removing powers and obstructing the opposition-controlled National Assembly (and which also "split" in two this year).

Democracy in Venezuela looks very dark, sadly...

PS: I recommend following the Twitter account @puzkas of a well-known local journalist from the electoral source, which may be useful for you to know the news regarding this elections, and all the issues related.

[MRCVzla]

To sum up again, these days, once the deadline for candidate nominations is over, the panorama of those who intend to participate in this "electoral type event" or parliamentary election has been clarifying. Three alliances or coalitions between national parties stand out, plus another 3 parties that will present candidates within their lists, either from banned or intervened parties or from local/regional organizations.

1) Great Patriotic Pole Simón Bolívar (GPPSB): the Chavismo stands with the objective of "recovering" the Assembly and its "legitimacy" abroad (aka trying to recover assets taken by the Guaidó administration as CITGO or Venezuelan gold saved in London, etc). With the PSUV (United Socialist Party of Venezuela, no needs presentation) at the head as always, it is allied with 8 other parties:
- Venezuelan Popular Unity (UPV): the former party of the late Lina Ron, a well-known radical chavista, currently led by Henry Hernández.
- Authentic Renewal Organization (ORA): Christian-evangelical party, its leader is Luis Reyes, former presidential candidate in 2006 and 2012.
- People's Electoral Movement (MEP): the veteran purple party founded in the 60s, social democracy.
- For the Social Democracy (PODEMOS): social democratic party led since 2012 by the former governor of Aragua Didalco Bolívar, when the TSJ intervened the party on his behalf to avoid allying with the opposition.
- Movement We Are Venezuela (MSV): the "civic" wing of the PSUV, once led by the current VP Delcy Rodríguez.
- Political Movement Alliance for Change (MPAPC): led by former student leader (and former opponent) Ricardo Sánchez, also civic.
- Fatherland for All (PPT): social democratic party intervened by the TSJ to a faction favorable to continue in an electoral alliance with Maduro, led by Ilenia Medina.
- Unified Tendencies to Reach the Organized Revolutionary Action Movement (TUPAMARO): far-left party, also intervened by the TSJ.
The national list (chosen proportionally according to the votes obtained in the regional lists) will be headed by Diosdado Cabello, followed by the "first combatant" Cilia Flores. Until now Minister Jorge Rodríguez will head the list for the Capital District, the campaign command will bear the name of the late Darío Vivas, the well-known Chavista dirigent who died of COVID-19 in August.

2) Democratic Alliance: This so-called "opposition" coalition is made up of 5 parties, 4 of them members of the so-called "National Dialogue Table" or "table" plus one of the opposition parties intervened by the TSJ.
- Hope for the Change (ELCAMBIO) of the evangelical pastor and former presidential candidate Javier Bertucci.
- Let's Change Citizen Movement (CMC) of MP Timoteo Zambrano.
- Advanced Progressive (AP) of former Lara governor and former presidential candidate Henri Falcón.
- The electoral wing of the COPEI social-Christian party led by Luis Carlos Alvarado.
- The electoral wing of Acción Democrática (AD), intervened by the TSJ and awarded to Bernabé Gutiérrez.
These parties are open about modifying their lists to add other "opposition" parties, especially the Henrique Capriles one.

3) United Venezuela Alliance: alliance related to the so-called "CLAP bench" or the "scorpions" led by the disputed "president" of the AN (recognized by the TSJ) Luis Parra, plus other deputies involved in corruption cases and who have achieved with the help of Justice, intervene some of the main opposition parties in their favor. They claim to be from the "center" and promote "renewal and change", they go with 3 electoral cards.
- Venezuela Unida (VU): led by Parra himself and other MPs such as Conrado Pérez or Chaid Bucarán, they use the card that belonged to the MIN Unidad party (again, intervened by the TSJ) and its symbols are similar to those of the old MUD unit electoral card.
- Primero Venezuela (PV): related to MP José Brito and other transfers of Primero Justicia, a party originally granted to Brito by the TSJ, but this measure was suspended, so they gave him the card of another authorized opposition party (Citizen Action in Positive, ACEP) to nominate their candidates, their symbols also resembles the PJ ones (black and yellow).
- The electoral wing of Popular Will-Activists (VPA), intervened by the TSJ and granted to MP José Gregorio Noriega.

Three other parties will run alone but with alliances within their lists:
- Solutions for Venezuela (SPV) by Claudio Fermín, away from the "mesita" will go in alliance with the REDES party of Chavista Juan Barreto.
- Union and Progress (UNIÓN PROGRESO), a split from COPEI led by former presidential candidate Eduardo Fernández and other leaders of the "green tent", will present itself with the help of regional parties.
- Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV), the communists, who still support Maduro but disagree in the direction of his government, present the "Popular Revolutionary Alliance" where they are accompanied in their lists of leaders by the intervened PPT and TUPAMARO and others revolutionary left social movements.

Other national parties, mostly "opposition" will appear alone without alliances:
- Liberal Procitizens (LPC) of the journalist Leocenis García, self-proclaims as "center-right".
- Popular Political Unit 89 (UPP89) of Chavista dissidents.
- New Vision for my Country (NUVIPA) of a Christian-evangelical nature, also intervened by the TSJ since the majority faction of the party supports Guaidó.
- Movement to Socialism (MAS), a member of the "mesita" but they present candidates away from it.
- Ecological Movement of Venezuela (MOVEV), a green "opposition" party
- And finally, The Force of the Change (FDC), the party related to the former governor of Miranda and former opposition presidential candidate Henrique Capriles, and which served in 2017 and 2018 to support several of the opposition mayors.

Although Capriles motivated to reconsider the call for the abstention of the "majority opposition", members close to the FDC party say that they presented candidates "to fill spaces" while the final position of the former opposition leader is decided, closer to improving the unfavorable electoral conditions and a hypothetical postponement of the election date depending on how the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect the entire electoral process.

In this last area, the CNE is open to exploring scenarios such as enabling more than one date for the holding of the electoral act. Even Maduro said that if doses of the Russian vaccine arrive in the country, some of them should be supplied to the candidates of the elections to be able to campaign in the street.

Meanwhile, in Guaidó's group, they ratified a "unitary pact" made up of 27 parties in which they consistently reject the "electoral fraud" that the election represents and ignore the result that arises from it, and among the options to reactivate civil actions a "popular consultation" is proposed, not so completely clarified.

[MRCVzla]

According CNE's results page (www2.cne.gob.ve/an2020) updated to 04:39 GMT-4. And apply D'Hondt on the 48-seats "National adjudication list" (based on regional-level districts results), the preliminary distribution of seats will be this:
GPP 38 (68.9% of valid votes, 62.3% only in PSUV ticket)
AD 3 (7.1% of valid votes)
ELCAMBIO 2 (4.6% of valid votes)
PV-VPA-VU 2 (4.2% of valid votes)
AP-Cambiemos 1 (3.3% of valid votes)
COPEI 1 (2.9% of valid votes)
PCV 1 (2.7% of valid votes)

Out of parliament Claudio Fermin' SPV (1.6%) or MAS (1.3%). If the Democratic Alliance parties were together in a joint list instead of the four lists who ran in the National district, they could have taken 2 seats from GPP/PSUV, meaningless anyway.

On the regional districts lists, is expected who Democratic Alliance only get around 9-10 seats out of 96 possible, so the "opposition" (or non-PSUV parties) will be represented around just 20/274 seats (GPP/PSUV likely has won all the FPTP/majority ranked "nominal" districts, 130 seats in total). The 3 indigenous seats elected will be held on Wednesday only for their respective communities, and chavismo-backed candidates will be likely elected.

Turnout was of course abysmal, officially 31%, but according independent sources the real one were less than 20%. Chavismo loses around 1 million votes respect 2015 election and more than 2 respect the 2018 questionable presidential election.

As expected, the Latin American and European countries allied with Guaidó already don't recognized the result and they said the election was not free and fair and away from democratic standards. The 3-question Consulta Popular starts today with virtual voting until the end of the week with a presencial voting.

[MRCVzla]

Final seat composition (99.83% counted)
Great Patriotic Pole: 253 (37/48 in the national list, 86/96 in regional lists and all 130 nominal lists)
Democratic Alliance: 18 (on the national list: 3 from AD, 2 from ElCambio, 2 from AP-CMC and 1 from COPEI, plus 10/96 seats in regional lists)
United Venezuela/Venezuela First: 2
People's Revolutionary Alternative (PCV): 1
Indigenous (likely pro-chavismo): 3

Turnout: 30.48%

Among the elected "opponents" are Bernabé Gutierrez (leader of the kidnapped AD party) or the former presidential candidate and evangelical pastor Javier Bertucci or the "scorpion" of PJ (Venezuela First) José Brito.

To add more irregularities to the process, the CNE admitted modifications to the lists of candidates AFTER the election, so the Ecological Movement (MOVEV) joined the national list of AP and Cambiemos DURING the vote counting, which added a seat more (Cambiemos' leader Timoteo Zambrano), while the disputed President of Parliament Luis Parra who was originally nominated on the regional list of his native state Yaracuy, as he was originally not elected, the national list of his alliance (United Venezuela) was modified to be second on the list and achieve his re-election. Changes that are illegal and outside the electoral laws in force, but that the electoral body has apparently made in exchange for favors.