Covid-19’s Effect in 2022

[MichaelRbn]

Covid-19 has improved most governors’ approval ratings; however, could the recent surges in infections and the ensuing backtracking on reopening commercial and other establishments in several states (particularly Arizona, Texas and Florida) result in previously unforeseen difficulties for one or more incumbents in 2022?

[QAnonKelly]

I don’t think Kemp was going to win anyway but this is probably the nail in his coffin. AZ was probably going to vote for a D governor anyway but Ducey should be glad he can’t run anymore. As for Abbott and DeSantis, I don’t know.

[Real Texan Politics]

DeSantis, Kemp, and Ducey are pretty much done. Abbott already has a primary challenger (Chad Prather) after his mask mandate, though if Beto or one of the Castro brothers is the dem nominee then I could see Abbott biting the dust too.

[Hope For A New Era]

I was expecting a slightly toned-down version of 2010, until the pandemic hit. Assuming Biden is elected (knock on wood) and there is no major crisis, I'm now thinking it may be a neutral to slightly R national environment. Probably some Republican gains in the House, little change in the Senate. Kemp and DeSantis lose reelection (as they should). Abbott might be able to cling on, just barely. He's the least-horrible of the three, so I'm fine with that.

[ON Progressive]

The effect seems to me that it might blunt the 2022 R wave since it could let Biden be able to be President during recovery.

Another impact is definitely that it tanks Ducey’s stock for any 2022 Senate run, which is Bad News Bears for the AZ GOP if McSally loses (as she probably will) given their incredibly weak bench.

Kemp was probably always going to have a semi-tough reelection, but his handling of this has certainly made things worse. Same with DeSantis. Abbott is may finally also lose his bizarre shine with Dem leaners in Texas while being at high risk of being primaried too.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The effect seems to me that it might blunt the 2022 R wave since it could let Biden be able to be President during recovery.

Another impact is definitely that it tanks Ducey’s stock for any 2022 Senate run, which is Bad News Bears for the AZ GOP if McSally loses (as she probably will) given their incredibly weak bench.

Kemp was probably always going to have a semi-tough reelection, but his handling of this has certainly made things worse. Same with DeSantis. Abbott is may finally also lose his bizarre shine with Dem leaners in Texas while being at high risk of being primaried too.

Pretty much this. The biggest takeaway from COVID in terms of the 2022 outlook is that it ranks Ducey’s long-expected Senate rum and leaves Republicans with some not-so-great options. The only notable person who could be a strong name from the get go is State Treasurer Kim Yee, but she might just see the open gubernatorial race as a better opportunity.

Ducey’s newfound unpopularity also presents Katie Hobbs with a huge opportunity to pick up that seat and give Democrats all three top offices down there (both Senate seats and the governorship). Goldwater is rolling in his grave at the thought.

Kemp’s and DeSantis’s numbers are nowhere near as low as they should be considering how bad they’ve jacked up, and I have no confidence in Florida Democrats defeating him. He could personally infect all 20 million Floridians with COVID and I would still bet on Democrats blowing it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Kemp could definitely lose even with Biden in the White House.

DeSantis seems to have nuked his presidential ambitions into oblivion and he could very well drag down Rubio (or another Republican running for his seat) with him in defeat.

Ducey has no chance of beating Kelly at this point.

Abbott is still popular and should be fine. Dan Patrick, on the other hand, is likely in deep trouble.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Kemp could definitely lose even with Biden in the White House.

DeSantis seems to have nuked his presidential ambitions into oblivion and he could very well drag down Rubio (or another Republican running for his seat) with him in defeat.

Ducey has no chance of beating Kelly at this point.

Abbott is still popular and should be fine. Dan Patrick, on the other hand, is likely in deep trouble.

I forgot about our dear LG telling seniors to sacrifice themselves for the economy. That race will get a lot of attention in 2022, especially if Biden wins Texas. The LG is arguably the most powerful position in the state, even Moreno than the Governor. One of the gerrymandered out freshman Dems would be well-positioned to take him on.