CO (PPP) - Hickenlooper +11

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not changing my rating just yet, but this is an underwhelming margin and were +11% the average here, I'd have it down as a strong likely D rather than safe D at this point in the race.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 3.4%

Having just noticed it's a partisan poll for End Citizens United (which means a selective release and thus a pro-D skew), I'm inclined to look a bit less generously on it. My CO-SEN rating will shift, for now, from Safe D -> [strong] likely D. If Hickenlooper can maintain this margin as we draw closer to the election, it'll move back to safe D, but there's just enough uncertainty inside this race to give Gardner a sliver of hope (though still less than McSally's).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Here's how Gardner can still win-

I'd say he has at least a 5% chance this far out and that is all that's required for me to rate the race likely (rather than safe) D. That chance is still so small that the race is out of his control (so it will require Hickenlooper's team to make more meaningful screw-ups before E-day), but it's still possible if Gardner can manifest a decent amount of split-ticket voting and the Biden-Trump ballot also narrows.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Here's how Gardner can still win-

The only way Gardner can win is to condemn Trump, switch to independent, and apologize for the last six years when he was a Cocaine Mitch stooge.

Condemning Trump would lose him the Trumpists. He is better off attempting bipartisan manoeuvres against McConnell and trying to sell it as what Trump secretly wanted all along. It would probably all be in vain anyway, but it's better than nothing.