CO (PPP) - Hickenlooper +11
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Author Topic: CO (PPP) - Hickenlooper +11  (Read 1231 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: July 01, 2020, 01:14:53 PM »

Hickenlooper - 51
Gardner - 40
Undecided - 9

840 V, June 29-30
https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ColoradoResults1.pdf
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 01:16:18 PM »

Titanium D
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Person Man
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 01:16:24 PM »

Thatís about right.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 01:28:29 PM »

Definitely looks Tilt R to me.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 01:30:21 PM »

I think we're gonna get a smaller than expected Hick win, but he's gonna win.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 01:31:02 PM »

I think we're gonna get a smaller than expected Hick win, but he's gonna win.

I can buy a 2014-style win when Biden wins by 8 statewide and 5 or 6 nationwide where Biden wins around midnite or 1 AM and the last state to be called is Florida.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2020, 01:40:43 PM »

Not changing my rating just yet, but this is an underwhelming margin and were +11% the average here, I'd have it down as a strong likely D rather than safe D at this point in the race.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2020, 01:48:22 PM »

Gardner is screwed one way or the other.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2020, 01:59:54 PM »

MoE: 3.4%

Having just noticed it's a partisan poll for End Citizens United (which means a selective release and thus a pro-D skew), I'm inclined to look a bit less generously on it. My CO-SEN rating will shift, for now, from Safe D -> [strong] likely D. If Hickenlooper can maintain this margin as we draw closer to the election, it'll move back to safe D, but there's just enough uncertainty inside this race to give Gardner a sliver of hope (though still less than McSally's).
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Gracile
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2020, 02:07:43 PM »

Here's how Gardner can still win-
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2020, 02:20:10 PM »

Here's how Gardner can still win-

I'd say he has at least a 5% chance this far out and that is all that's required for me to rate the race likely (rather than safe) D. That chance is still so small that the race is out of his control (so it will require Hickenlooper's team to make more meaningful screw-ups before E-day), but it's still possible if Gardner can manifest a decent amount of split-ticket voting and the Biden-Trump ballot also narrows.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: July 01, 2020, 02:31:26 PM »

Here's how Gardner can still win-

The only way Gardner can win is to condemn Trump, switch to independent, and apologize for the last six years when he was a Cocaine Mitch stooge.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: July 01, 2020, 02:35:01 PM »

Here's how Gardner can still win-

The only way Gardner can win is to condemn Trump, switch to independent, and apologize for the last six years when he was a Cocaine Mitch stooge.

Condemning Trump would lose him the Trumpists. He is better off attempting bipartisan manoeuvres against McConnell and trying to sell it as what Trump secretly wanted all along. It would probably all be in vain anyway, but it's better than nothing.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: July 01, 2020, 02:35:53 PM »

Here's how Gardner can still win-

The only way Gardner can win is to condemn Trump, switch to independent, and apologize for the last six years when he was a Cocaine Mitch stooge.

Not even that. Republicans would abandon him in this scenario. Even if he played some sort of Never Trumper or basically be Mitt Romney over past few years, he would either have been primaried with the God Emperor's blessing (most likely) or Republicans/Trump voters just wouldn't vote for him in November. The few independents or Democrats he would get in return wouldn't make up the loss, let alone putting him over the finishline to defeat Hick (or any credible challenger).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: July 01, 2020, 02:39:31 PM »

The thing is, Gardner "condemning" Trump or "apologizing" for his voting record would result in Gardner losing a ton of Republican votes and winning over a completely negligible number of Biden voters. The (boring) truth is that Gardner was always going to be a one-termer unless you thought that this was going to be a Republican wave year and that he would be facing an opponent far worse than Udall.
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Person Man
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« Reply #15 on: July 01, 2020, 02:59:41 PM »

The thing is, Gardner "condemning" Trump or "apologizing" for his voting record would result in Gardner losing a ton of Republican votes and winning over a completely negligible number of Biden voters. The (boring) truth is that Gardner was always going to be a one-termer unless you thought that this was going to be a Republican wave year and that he would be facing an opponent far worse than Udall.

It could still be if the economy is already "close" to full employment by November (say under 8%) and Biden runs a really bad campaign. Maybe even then, Gardner would Hick to be a bad candidate and perhaps he's not a good candidate but he is OK no matter how you slice it...maybe just OK but that's not weak enough.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2020, 07:25:45 PM »

It's amazing that an 11 point loss for an incumbent seems generous to them.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2020, 07:33:36 PM »

Glad we're getting this seat back, but 6 years of Gardner and then 6 years of Hickenlooper is a huge downgrade on what could have been 12 extremely based years of Mark Uterus. Sad
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scutosaurus
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« Reply #18 on: July 01, 2020, 09:56:55 PM »

Hanabusa would be ahead by 20.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2020, 10:00:32 PM »

This is a smaller margin than the 17-18 pt. Hickenlooper leads which previous polls had shown, but if this is the best Gardner can do, then he's ruined. This race is still Likely, bordering on Safe, Democratic. I expect that Hickenlooper will win by a similar margin to this in the end, which would match Polis' 2018 victory over Stapleton.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #20 on: July 01, 2020, 10:00:47 PM »

Given Hickenlooper's current woes, I think the race is probably much closer.

That said, I think Hickenlooper certainly can extend his lead back out if he doesn't make any more major missteps, and he can still lose the election.
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Orser67
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« Reply #21 on: July 01, 2020, 10:33:19 PM »

Oh man, I sure hope Hickenlooper doesn't blow this race

/sarcasm
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2020, 03:31:53 PM »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-06-30

Summary: D: 51%, R: 40%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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