1000 Congressional Districts (user search)
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Author Topic: 1000 Congressional Districts  (Read 6738 times)
Adriano Chiká
AdrianoChika
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« on: July 01, 2020, 01:05:55 PM »

As the title says, this is a project in which the United States of America has 1000 Congressional Districts. I will use the information from the 2010 Census, and going through all the states.

The state with the most districts is California, with 121 districts, while 4 states have only 2 districts (Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota and Alaska).

I will try to place the results of the 2016-2018 elections in each District, as well as who could represent them.




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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 03:02:34 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:34:40 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Wyoming:



District 1:
President 2016: Trump +47%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Senate 2018: Barrasso +39%
Governor 2018: Gordon +43%


District 2:
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2008: McCain +29%
Senate 2018: Barrasso +35%
Governor 2018: Gordon +36%


Both districts in Wyoming are 100% Safe R, and have been represented by GOP representatives throughout the decade.

District 1 – Safe R in 2020
Liz Cheney (R-Teton), fisrt elected in 2012
District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Cynthia Lummis (R-Laramie), if she does not seek re-election in 2016, she would be succeeded by another GOP member, perhaps Rita Meyer, Darin Smith or Edward Buchanan. First elected in 2008.

Total:
2016 – GOP 2 x DEM 0
2018 – GOP 2 x DEM 0

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 03:51:56 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:35:24 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Vermont:



District 1:
President 2016: Clinton +25%
President 2008: Obama +37%
Senate 2018: Sanders +45%
Governor 2018: Scott +12%
Governor 2016: Scott +6%



District 2:
President 2016: Clinton +27%
President 2008: Obama +37%
Senate 2018: Sanders +45%
Governor 2018: Scott +17%
Governor 2016: Scott +12%



Although both districts voted for Phill Scott for governor in 2016 and 2018, both are Safe D and have been represented by members of the Democratic party for the entire decade.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Peter Welch (D-Windsor), first elected in 2006.

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Tim Ashe (D-Chittenden), first elected in 2016.

Total:
2016  - GOP 2 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 2 x DEM 2

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 05:13:26 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:36:45 PM by Adriano Chiká »

North Dakota:




District 1:
President 2016: Trump +22%
President 2008: Obama +2%
Senate 2018: Heitkamp +6%

Governor 2016: Burgum +52%

District 2:
President 2016: Trump +50%
President 2008: McCain +19%
Senate 2018: Cramer +27%
Governor 2016: Burgum +62%


Both North Dakota Districts were represented by Republicans this decade, despite tight disputes in 2010 and 2012 in the 1st District. In 2018, in the tightest race since 2012, the GOP won in the 1st District by 7%.

District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Rick Berg (R-Cass), fisrt elected in 2010. Mac Schneider (D-Grand Forks) won 46% of the vote in the 2018 midterm against the incumbent.

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Kevin Cramer (R-Burleigh), first elected in 2012, retired in 2018 to run for Senate
Kelly Armstrong (R-Stark) after 2018

Total:
2016  - GOP 4 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 4 x DEM 2

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2020, 03:52:21 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:37:29 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Alaska:




District 1:
President 2016: Trump +15%
President 2008: McCain +23%
Governor 2018: Dunleavy +10%


District 2:
President 2016: Trump +14%
President 2008: McCain +20%
Governor 2018: Dunleavy +4%


The 1st District is basically composed of Anchorage and some other nearby cities, while the 2nd District occupies the rest of the Alaska State territory.

District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Dan Sullivan (R-Anchorage), first elected in 2014.
The former Mayor of Anchorage seems the most obvious choice for a city-centered seat. Wasilla, the city of ex-governor Sarah Palin (R-Matanuska-Susitna) is also in 1st, so she could be another more remote option.

District 2 – Likely R in 2020
Don Young (R- Yukon-Koyukuk), first elected in 1973.
The city of Fort Yukon, Don Young's home is in the 2nd District, so he probably would have been representing the 2nd for decades. Despite a tight re-election in 2018, Young is the favorite to win again in 2020.

Total:
2016 – GOP 6 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 6 x DEM 2
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 04:02:22 PM »

Well, now that we’ve finished the 4 states with just 2 districts, we’ve gone through the easiest part of the project.
Any comments or suggestions about possible district representatives are welcome!
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2020, 06:11:08 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:38:46 PM by Adriano Chiká »

South Dakota:


District 1:
President 2016: Trump +20%
President 2008: McCain +2.5%

Governor 2018: Sutton +3%
Senator 2016: Thune +39%


District 2:
President 2016: Trump +35%
President 2008: McCain +5%
Governor 2018: Noem +4%
Senator 2016: Thune +46%



District 3:
President 2016: Trump +36%
President 2008: McCain +18%
Governor 2018: Noem +9%
Senator 2016: Thune +45%



South Dakota's three districts are extremely Republican, even the 1st District, which comprises the most populous part of the state, including Sioux Falls. Even in 1st, Sutton won by only 3% in 2018, while Trump and Thune won in 2016 respectively by 20% and 35%.


District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Shantel Krebs (R-Minnehaha), first elected in 2014.

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Kristi Noem (R-Hamlin), first elected in 2010, retired in 2018 to run for Governor
Dusty Johnson (R-Davidson) after 2018

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Marty Jackley (R-Hughes), first elected in 2012.



Total:
2016 – GOP 9 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 9 x DEM 2
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #7 on: July 04, 2020, 01:37:27 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:39:41 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Delaware:


District 1:
President 2016: Clinton +33%
President 2008: Obama +42%
Governor 2016: Carney +38%
Senator 2018: Carper +43%


District 2:
President 2016: Clinton +21%
President 2008: Obama +35%
Governor 2016: Carney +28%
Senator 2018: Carper +34%


District 3:
President 2016: Trump +18%
President 2008: McCain +4%
Governor 2016: Bonini +7%
Senator 2018: Arlett +7%



Delaware's 1st District comprises the northern part of the state and is mainly concentrated in the city of Wilmington. The 2nd District comprises the rest of New Castle County, as well as the northern part of Kent County, with Newark and Middletown as the largest cities, as well as the northern part of the city of Dover. The 3rd District covers the entire county of Sussex and the southern part of Kent County, and is the most republican part of the state, even though it has most of the city of Dover, the 2nd largest in the state.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington/New Castle), first elected in 2016.

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Valerie Longhurst (D-Bear/New Castle), first elected in 2014.

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Colin Bonini (R-South Dover/Kent), first elected in 2010.

Total:
2016 – GOP 10 x DEM 4
2018 – GOP 10 x DEM 4

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #8 on: July 04, 2020, 02:22:00 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:41:12 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Montana:



District 1:
President 2016: Trump +21%
President 2008: McCain +6%

Governor 2016: Bullock +1.5%
Senator 2018: Tester +2%



District 2:
President 2016: Trump +32%
President 2008: McCain +10%
Governor 2016: Gianforte +7%
Senator 2018: Rosendale +7%



District 3:
President 2016: Trump +7%
President 2008: Obama +7%
Governor 2016: Bullock +16%
Senator 2018: Tester +14%



The 1st District comprises the southeastern state of Montana, including the cities of Billings and Bozeman. The 2nd District covers the north of the state, and is the most republican district in the state, giving victories even to Gianforte and Rosendale in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The 3rd District is the most urban in the state, containing the cities of Missoula, Helena and Butte, and is the most Democratic of Montana's districts.



District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman/Gallatin), first elected in 2016.

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish/Flathead), first elected in 2012, retired in 2017.
Matt Rosendale (R-Wibaux), elected in 2017.

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Carol Williams (D-Missoula), retired in 2014
Rick Hill (R-Helena/Lewis and Clark), elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Jon Sesso (D-Butte/Silver Bow), elected in 2018


Total:
2016 – GOP 13 x DEM 4
2018 – GOP 12 x DEM 5 (D+1)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2020, 04:16:57 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:10:01 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Rhode Island:


District 1:
PVI - D+25
President 2016: Clinton +46%
President 2008: Obama +53%
Governor 2018: Raimondo +45%
Senator 2018: Whitehouse +53%


District 2:
PVI - D+1
President 2016: Trump +4%
President 2008: Obama +15%
Governor 2018: Fung +7%
Senator 2018: Whitehouse +5%

District 3:
PVI - D+7
President 2016: Clinton +12%
President 2008: Obama +22%
Governor 2018: Raimondo +17%
Senator 2018: Whitehouse +20%



Rhode Island's 1st District is the state's most democratic and most urban, concentrating the state's largest city and capital, Providence, as well as East Providence, North Providence and Pawtucket.
The 2nd District covers the rest of Providence County, as well as Kent County (with the exception of the city of Warwick). The 2nd largest city is Cranston. It is the only district in the state represented by a GOP member, and was considered a great pickup opportunity in 2018, with Allan Fung's reelection by 2% considered an upset.
The 3rd District covers the entire southern part of the state, being the largest city in the 3rd Warwick. Although less democratic than the 1st, it is still Safe D.



District 1 – Safe D in 2020
David Cicilline (D-Providence), first elected in 2010.

District 2 – Tossup in 2020
Allan Fung (R-Cranston/Providence), first elected in 2012.

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
James Langevin (D-Warwick/Kent), first elected in 2000.


Total:
2016 – GOP 14 x DEM 6
2018 – GOP 13 x DEM 7 (D+1)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2020, 01:56:35 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:08:51 PM by Adriano Chiká »

New Hampshire:


District 1:
PVI - R+2
President 2016: Trump +2%

President 2008: Obama +3.5%
Governor 2018: Sununu +10%
Governor 2016: Sununu +6%
Senator 2016: Ayotte +5%


District 2:
PVI - D+4
President 2016: Clinton +7%
President 2008: Obama +16%

Governor 2018: Sununu +1%
Governor 2016: Van Ostern +6%
Senator 2016: Hassan +7%


District 3:
PVI - D+1
President 2016: Clinton +0.5%
President 2008: Obama +15%

Governor 2018: Sununu +6%
Governor 2016: Van Ostern +0.5%
Senator 2016: Hassan +2%



District 4:
PVI - R+3
President 2016: Trump +2%

President 2008: Obama +4%
Governor 2018: Sununu +11%
Governor 2016: Sununu +9%
Senator 2016: Ayotte +3%



The 4 New Hampshire districts are considered to be extremely competitive in virtually every election year. The most Democratic of the districts is the 2nd, represented by Ann McLane Kuster, who faced tight elections against Frank Guinta in 2012, 2014 and 2016, former mayor of Manchester.
The 1st is, by a small margin, the most republican district in New Hampshire. The district was represented by Charles Bass from the 1990s to 2018, when the former incumbent was defeated by Jim Donchess, former Nashua mayor.
The 3rd District has been represented by Jeb Bradley since the early 2000s. Despite having voted for Clinton, Van Ostern and Hassan in 2016, Bradley survived a tight re-election in 2016, in one of the tightest races of that year. But the incumbent, despite having been tested in many battles, was defeated in 2018, in an upset.
The 4th District was almost as republican as the 1st, and Representative Marilinda Garcia was considered a rising star for the GOP in New Hampshire. But in 2018, completing the disastrous year for the state party, Marilinda lost by a margin of less than 1% to Maura Sullivan, former Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, who had moved to the state less than two years ago.

District 1 – Tossup in 2020
Charles Bass (R-Peterborough/Hillsborough), first elected in 1994, defeated in 2018
Jim Donchess (D-Nashua/Hillsborough), elected in 2018

District 2 – Lean D in 2020
Ann McLane Kuster (D-Hopkinton/Merrimack), first elected in 2012.

District 3 – Lean D in 2020
Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro/Carroll), first elected in 2002, defeated in 2018
Andrew Hosmer (D-Laconia/Belknap), elected in 2018

District 4 – Tossup in 2020
Marilinda Garcia (R-Rockingham), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Maura Sullivan (D-Portsmouth/Rockingham), elected in 2018


Total:
2016 – GOP 17 x DEM 7
2018 – GOP 13 x DEM 11 (D+4)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2020, 02:27:20 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:07:55 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Maine:


District 1:
PVI - D+10
President 2016: Clinton +20%
President 2008: Obama +29%
Governor 2018: Mills +22%
Senator 2018: King +30%


District 2:
PVI - D+4
President 2016: Clinton +5%
President 2008: Obama +17%
Governor 2018: Mills +7%
Senator 2018: King +21%


District 3:
PVI - R+2
President 2016: Trump +11%

President 2008: Obama +13%
Governor 2018: Moody +4%
Senator 2018: King +11%

District 4:
PVI - R+1
President 2016: Trump +4%

President 2008: Obama +9%
Governor 2018: Mills +3%
Senator 2018: King +12%



Maine's 1st District is the most Democratic in the state, and is comprised of York County, in addition to Maine's most populous city, Portland. The 2nd District is considered Likely D and has the largest city Lewiston, the 2nd largest in the state.

The 3rd District is the most republican in the state and covers the entire northern part of the state. After 2018, it is the only district to be represented by the GOP in the state, with Bruce Poliquin getting reelected by about 1.5%.

The 4th District is the most competitive in the State. Represented by Democrat Mike Michaud, until 2014, when he did not run for re-election to run for governor. In a tight election in 2014, Mike Thibodeau defeated Chellie Pingree. In 2018, however, Thibodeau was defeated to Chellie's daughter Hannah Pingree.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Cynthia Dill (D-Cape Elizabeth/Cumberland), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Likely D in 2020
Jared Golden (D-Lewiston/Androscoggin), first elected in 2016

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Bruce Poliquin (R-Waterville/Kennebec), first elected in 2012

District 4 – Tossup in 2020
Mike Michaud (D-East Millinocket/Penobscot), retired in 2014 to run for Governor
Mike Thibodeau (R-Waldo), elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Hannah Pingree (R-North Haven/Knox), elected in 2018


Total:
2016 – GOP 19 x DEM 9
2018 – GOP 14 x DEM 14 (D+5)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2020, 03:38:44 PM »


Thanks!
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2020, 03:39:07 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:07:04 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Hawaii:


Hawaii

Oahu Island

District 1:
PVI - D+20
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +46%
Governor 2018: Ige +38%
Senate 2018: Hirono +47%
Senate 2016: Schatz +55%


District 2:
PVI - D+16
President 2016: Clinton +30%
President 2008: Obama +40%
Governor 2018: Ige +29%
Senate 2018: Hirono +37%
Senate 2016: Schatz +50%


District 3:
PVI - D+13
President 2016: Clinton +20%
President 2008: Obama +39%
Governor 2018: Ige +12%
Senate 2018: Hirono +32%
Senate 2016: Schatz +45%


District 4:
PVI - D+22
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +54%
Governor 2018: Ige +35%
Senate 2018: Hirono +51%
Senate 2016: Schatz +54%




Like the state, Hawaii's 4 districts are completely Safe D. The 1st District covers only the city of Honolulu, while the 2nd District covers the cities closest to the capital.
The 3rd District covers the rest of the island of Oahu which is not covered by the 1st and 2nd, as well as the western islands of the state: Kauai and Niihau. The 4th District covers the eastern islands of the state: Big Island, Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai and Molokai.



District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Mufi Hannemann (D-Honolulu), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Ed Case (D-Kaneohe/Honolulu), first elected in 2002

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Bernard Carvalho (D-Kauai), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Gil Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), died in 2016.
Kai Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), first elected in 2016.


Total:
2016 – GOP 19 x DEM 13
2018 – GOP 14 x DEM 18 (D+5)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2020, 04:07:37 PM »

Hawaii:


Hawaii

Oahu Island

District 1:
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +46%
Governor 2018: Ige +38%
Senate 2018: Hirono +47%
Senate 2016: Schatz +55%


District 2:
President 2016: Clinton +30%
President 2008: Obama +40%
Governor 2018: Ige +29%
Senate 2018: Hirono +37%
Senate 2016: Schatz +50%


District 3:
President 2016: Clinton +20%
President 2008: Obama +39%
Governor 2018: Ige +12%
Senate 2018: Hirono +32%
Senate 2016: Schatz +45%


District 4:
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +54%
Governor 2018: Ige +35%
Senate 2018: Hirono +51%
Senate 2016: Schatz +54%




Like the state, Hawaii's 4 districts are completely Safe D. The 1st District covers only the city of Honolulu, while the 2nd District covers the cities closest to the capital.
The 3rd District covers the rest of the island of Oahu which is not covered by the 1st and 2nd, as well as the western islands of the state: Kauai and Niihau. The 4th District covers the eastern islands of the state: Big Island, Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai and Molokai.



District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Mufi Hannemann (D-Honolulu), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Ed Case (D-Kaneohe/Honolulu), first elected in 2002

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Bernard Carvalho (D-Kauai), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Gil Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), died in 2016.
Kai Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), first elected in 2016.


Total:
2016 – GOP 19 x DEM 13
2018 – GOP 14 x DEM 18 (D+5)




I'm pretty sure Tulsi Gabbard would be the Representative in one of those districts.

Tulsi Gabbard resides in the 1st District, and could run in the 2nd as well. The 2nd has been occupied by Ed Case since 2002, while the 1st had the last election open in 2010. Tulsi could challenge Mufi Hannemann in a primary or run when he decided to retire or run for Governor / Senator, after all, she is still quite young.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #15 on: July 07, 2020, 04:57:53 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 12:07:44 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Idaho:


Idaho


Boise

Unfortunately in the app I use (DRA 2020), there is little information about the outcome of the elections in Idaho.

District 1:
PVI - R+4
President 2008: McCain +1%


District 2:
PVI - R+22
President 2008: McCain +33%


District 3:
PVI - R+27
President 2008: McCain +40%


District 4:
PVI - R+19
President 2008: McCain +21%


District 5:
PVI - R+25
President 2008: McCain +37%



The 1st District of Idaho is the only competitive district in the state and comprises the cities of Boise and Meridian. After a tight re-election in 2016, Russ Fulchef was defeated in 2018 against Dave Bieter, the former mayor of Boise.

The 2nd District covers the southwest of the State, including its 2nd largest city, Nampa. The 3rd District extends throughout the central part of the state. The 4th focuses mainly on the Panhandle. The 5th District is in southeastern Idaho, with Idaho Falls as the largest city.


District 1 – Lean D in 2020
Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian/Ada), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Dave Bieter (D-Boise/Ada), elected in 2018

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Raul Labrador (R-Eagle/Ada), first elected in 2010

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Brent Hill (R-Rexburg/Madison), first elected in 2008

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
Luke Malek (R-Coeur Dalene/Kootenai), first elected in 2016

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls/Bonneville), first elected in 1998.


Total:
2016 – GOP 24 x DEM 13
2018 – GOP 18 x DEM 19 (D+6)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #16 on: July 07, 2020, 05:43:38 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 12:08:19 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Nebraska:


Nebraska

 
Omaha

District 1:
PVI - R+6
President 2016: Trump +7%
President 2008: McCain +4%


District 2:
PVI - EVEN
President 2016: Clinton +6%
President 2008: Obama +7%


District 3:
PVI - R+22
President 2016: Trump +39%
President 2008: McCain +27%


District 4:
PVI - R+3
President 2016: Trump +3%

President 2008: Obama +3%

District 5:
PVI - R+22
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2008: McCain +27%


District 6:
PVI - R+30
President 2016: Trump +61%
President 2008: McCain +43%




Nebraska's 1st District covers the cities of Papillion, Bellevue and the entire county of Sarpy, as well as the south of the city of Omaha. The 2nd District covers most of the city of Omaha and the rest of Douglas County, and is the most democratic district in the state.

The 3rd District covers the entire northeast of Nebrasaka State, while the 5th District covers the entire southeast. The 4th District was the most competitive in 2018, when Democrat Chris Beutler, in an upset, defeated former incumbent Jeff Fortenberry. The 6th District is the most republican in the state and one of the most republican in the country, having voted for Trump by a margin of more than 60%.


District 1 – Lean R in 2020
Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Sarpy), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Likely D in 2020
Brad Ashford (D-Omaha/Douglas), first elected in 2014

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Beau McCoy (R-Omaha/Douglas), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Tossup in 2020
Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln/Lancaster), first elected in 2004, defeated in 2018
Chris Beutler (D-Lincoln/Lancaster), elected in 2018

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Rick Sheehy (R-Hasting/Adams), first elected in 2008.

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Adrian Smith (R-Gering/Scotts Bluff), first elected in 2006.



Total:
2016 – GOP 29 x DEM 14
2018 – GOP 22 x DEM 21 (D+7)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2020, 04:52:02 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 03:59:34 PM by Adriano Chiká »

West Virginia:



District 1:
PVI - R+19
President 2008: McCain +16%


District 2:
PVI - R+16
President 2008: McCain +9%


District 3:
PVI - R+14
President 2008: McCain +4%


District 4:
PVI - R+21
President 2008: McCain +20%


District 5:
PVI - R+25
President 2008: McCain +16%


District 6:
PVI - R+21
President 2008: McCain +14%



All 6 districts in the state are considered Safe R. The 1st district covers northeast West Virginia. 2 ° covers upstate, including Morgantown. The 3rd covers the central part of the state, including the capital Charleston. The 4th covers the northwest portion, including Parkersburg and Wheeling. The 5th covers the south of the state. The 6th district covers west West Virginia, including Huntington.


District 1 – Safe R in 2020
Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town/Jefferson), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
John Raese (R-Morgantown/Monongalia), first elected in 2006

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Steve Harrison (R-Cross Lanes/Kanawha), first elected in 2006

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
David McKinley (R-Wheeling/Ohio), first elected in 2010

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Bill Cole (R-Bluefield/Mercer), first elected in 2012.

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington/Cabell), first elected in 2014, retired in 2018 to run for Senate
Carol Miller (R-Huntington/Cabell), elected in 2018.


Total:
2016 – GOP 35 x DEM 14
2018 – GOP 28 x DEM 21 (D+7)

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Adriano Chiká
AdrianoChika
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« Reply #18 on: July 08, 2020, 08:35:33 PM »

Idaho should have options in DRA 2020. PVI might be the best since 2008 was a good while ago.
I tried recreating the districts and got District 1's PVI as R+3.6, which is Lean R. All others were over R+18
Idaho should have options in DRA 2020. PVI might be the best since 2008 was a good while ago.

You are right, the PVI would probably be more representative of reality. Even I initially inserted the PVI but then I removed it so as not to distort it from other states. Regarding the 1st, despite the PVI R + 3, I believe that in 2018 he would have flipped, even because Trump lost Boise.

Presuming a good candidate runs in District 3, it could flip. I'd rate it Likely R.

You say the 3rd District of West Virginia? I assume it could be Likely in a Trump midterm, but by 2020 I think it would be less likely to have an upset. What do you think?


Thanks!
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Adriano Chiká
AdrianoChika
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« Reply #19 on: July 09, 2020, 12:44:34 PM »

First, great work. This is really fun to follow. My only problem is that the district maps aren't loading. Is there any way you could post the DRA link along with the post?

Strange, for me the photos appear normal.
But I will leave here the links to the DRA.
And thank you for following the posts!

Wyoming - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5eb59115-0f74-4f41-a72b-a3a0d5441c74

Vermont - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fa767b29-3779-4141-8279-40f53f5c88d4

North Dakota - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::27305cf0-3539-45f4-a2ba-19b79cf1117a

Alaska - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2a84e065-918e-48c5-929a-6349ba0c1bda

South Dakota - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2a84e065-918e-48c5-929a-6349ba0c1bda

Delaware - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8dc46f01-d226-4c0a-873c-4b7f8e6f9a0d

Montana - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::448b9003-461d-4eee-9aae-4133408e7cd5

Rhode Island - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fac9a62e-935d-4a60-89d0-a6c38ca8f8d2

New Hampshire - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f89ae558-e446-45f4-9c32-f8c74d42e6bc

Hawaii - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::601369ec-4b10-4875-b029-54b63910580d

Maine - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::87d573f0-df6c-425f-b952-0b0cb3fa284a

Idaho - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6c89a68a-df3d-4871-9568-1422a6e38214

Nebraska - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f885e6f8-c4c8-4064-957c-2627d3642e97

West Virginia - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7976a305-3be7-43dc-833c-3504fff89085
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #20 on: July 09, 2020, 03:39:15 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 12:09:14 PM by Adriano Chiká »

New Mexico:


New Mexico


Albuquerque

District 1:
PVI – D+5
President 2016: Clinton +14%
President 2008: Obama +11%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +20%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +29%


District 2:
PVI – D+14
President 2016: Clinton +27%
President 2008: Obama +35%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +35%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +41%


District 3:
PVI – R+1
President 2016: Trump +3%

President 2008: Obama +10%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +3%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +14%


District 4:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Trump +7%

President 2008: Obama +2%
Governor 2018: Pearce +0.5%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +9%

District 5:
PVI – D+20
President 2016: Clinton +40%
President 2008: Obama +46%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +46%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +51%


District 6:
PVI – R+16
President 2016: Trump +31%
President 2008: McCain +19%
Governor 2018: Pearce +30%
Senator 2018: Rich +16%


District 7:
PVI – EVEN
President 2016: Clinton +3%
President 2008: Obama +6%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +7%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +13%



The 1st and 2nd districts cover the city of Albuquerque, the largest in the state. The 3rd covers the rest of the county of Bernalillo to the extreme south of the state, in the county of Hidalgo. The 4th District covers the northwest of the state.

The 5th District covers northern New Mexico, as well as the city of Santa Fe, and is the most democratic district in the state. The 6th District covers the west of the state, with Roswell as its largest city, and is the most republican in the state. The 7th is in southern New Mexico, with Las Cruces as its largest city.


District 1 – Likely D in 2020
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque/Bernalillo), first elected in 2012, retired in 2018 to run for governor
Damon Martinez (D-Albuquerque/Bernalillo), elected in 2018

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Hector Balderas (D-Albuquerque/Bernalillo), first elected in 2014

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Dianne Hamilton (R-Silver City/Grant), first elected in 2008, retired in 2018
Howie Morales (D-Silver City/Grant), elected in 2018

District 4 – Lean R in 2020
William Sharer (R-Farmington/San Juan), first elected in 2010

District 5 – Safe D in 2020
Ben Ray Lujan (D-Santa Fe), first elected in 2008.

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs/Lea), first elected in 2002, retired in 2018 to run for Governor
Jim Townsend (R-Artesia/Eddy), elected in 2018.

District 7 – Tossup in 2020
Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo/Otero), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2016
Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces/Dona Ana), elected in 2016



Total:
2016 – GOP 38 x DEM 18
2018 – GOP 30 x DEM 26 (D+8)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #21 on: July 10, 2020, 03:41:02 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2020, 11:32:18 AM by Adriano Chiká »

Nevada:
 


Nevada


Las Vegas


Reno

District 1:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Trump +9%

President 2008: Obama +3%
Governor 2018: Laxalt +4%
Senator 2018: Heller +3%
Senator 2016: Heck +8%


District 2:
PVI – D+10
President 2016: Clinton +19%
President 2008: Obama +27%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +22%
Senator 2018: Rosen +23%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +20%


District 3:
PVI – D+6
President 2016: Clinton +13%
President 2008: Obama +21%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +18%
Senator 2018: Rosen +18%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +12%


District 4:
PVI – D+21
President 2016: Clinton +42%
President 2008: Obama +41%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +41%
Senator 2018: Rosen +44%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +44%


District 5:

PVI – D+18
President 2016: Clinton +35%
President 2008: Obama +41%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +36%
Senator 2018: Rosen +38%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +35%


District 6:
PVI – D+1
President 2016: Clinton +4%
President 2008: Obama +11%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +7%
Senator 2018: Rosen +8%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +4%


District 7:
PVI – R+16
President 2016: Trump +31%
President 2008: McCain +17%
Governor 2018: Laxalt +28%
Senator 2018: Heller +28%
Senator 2016: Heck +29%


District 8:
PVI – D+4
President 2016: Clinton +9%
President 2008: Obama +19%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +11%
Senator 2018: Rosen +12%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +7%


District 9:
PVI – R+12
President 2016: Trump +23%
President 2008: McCain +4%
Governor 2018: Laxalt +23%
Senator 2018: Heller +22%
Senator 2016: Heck +23%



Nevada's 1st District covers the southern portion of the state and Clark County, the largest city in the district being Henderson. Districts 2 °, 3 °, 4 °, 5 ° and 6 ° cover Las Vegas and its surrounding regions. The 2nd is almost entirely centered on Paradise. The 3rd covers Enterprise and Spring Valley. The 4th covers the east end of Las Vegas, in addition to Sunrise Manor and an extensive strip north over Henderson. The 5th covers a central portion of Las Vegas, as well as the city of North Las Vegas. The 6th occupies most of the city of Las Vegas, as well as Summerlin South.

The 7th District is the largest in the state, covering a northern portion of the city of Las Vegas, as well as much of the interior of Nevada, as far north as the state and west. The 8th covers the city of Reno, the 3rd largest in the state. The 9th covers the capital Carson City, as well as the rest of the interior of the state that does not belong to the 7th.


District 1 – Lean R in 2020
Joe Heck (R-Henderson/Clark), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2008

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2016

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Chris Giunchigliani (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2010

District 5 – Safe D in 2020
Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2012

District 6 – Lean D in 2020
Victoria Seaman (R-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2016
Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2016

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite/Clark), first elected in 2014

District 8 – Likely D in 2020
Hillary Schieve (D-Reno/Washoe), first elected in 2016

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), first elected in 2010


Total:
2016 – GOP 41 x DEM 24
2018 – GOP 33 x DEM 32 (D+8)

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Adriano Chiká
AdrianoChika
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« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2020, 01:52:11 PM »

Utah:


Utah

Salt Lake City

Provo

North Utah

District 1:
PVI – D+14
President 2016: Clinton +40%
President 2008: Obama +28%
Governor 2016: Weinholtz +25%
Senator 2016: Snow +22%


District 2:
PVI – R+4
President 2016: Clinton +7%
President 2008: McCain +0.5%
Governor 2016: Herbert +9%
Senator 2016: Lee +13%


District 3:
PVI – R+12
President 2016: Trump +4%
President 2008: McCain +16%
Governor 2016: Herbert +25%
Senator 2016: Lee +29%


District 4:
PVI – R+26
President 2016: Trump +11%
President 2008: McCain +42%
Governor 2016: Herbert +50%
Senator 2016: Lee +54%


District 5:

PVI – R+33
President 2016: Trump +17%
President 2008: McCain +54%
Governor 2016: Herbert +63%
Senator 2016: Lee +66%


District 6:
PVI – R+34
President 2016: Trump +13%
President 2008: McCain +56%
Governor 2016: Herbert +64%
Senator 2016: Lee +66%


District 7:
PVI – R+27
President 2016: Trump +36%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Governor 2016: Herbert +49%
Senator 2016: Lee +51%


District 8:
PVI – R+22
President 2016: Trump +19%
President 2008: McCain +33%
Governor 2016: Herbert +41%
Senator 2016: Lee +43%


District 9:
PVI – R+34
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2008: McCain +52%
Governor 2016: Herbert +60%
Senator 2016: Lee +63%



The 1st District of Utah is the only one represented by a member of the Democratic party, concentrated in the capital, Salt Lake City. The 2nd District is the most competitive in Utah, being considered an opportunity for Democrats in 2018, but Aimee Winder Newton managed to win a tight re-election. The 2nd covers West Valley City, Taylorsville and Murray.

The 3rd is also within Salt Lake County, covering West Jordan, South Jordan, Sandy and Cottonwood Heights. The 4th District covers the whole of Davis County, with Layton as its largest city. The 5th covers the south of Salt Lake County and northern Utah County, with Riverton, Alpine, Lehi, Pleasant Grove, Highland and American Fork as the main cities.

The 6th is entirely within the central part of Utah County, being centered in the city of Provo. The 7th covers the entire eastern portion of the state. The 8th is a small extension in the north of the state, covering Brigham City, Ogden, Logan and Hyrum. The 9th covers the entire western portion of the state.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City/Salt Lake), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Lean R in 2020
Aimee Winder Newton (R-Taylorsville/Salt Lake), first elected in 2014

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan/Salt Lake), first elected in 2016

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
Chris Stewart (R-Farmington/Davis), first elected in 2012

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs/Utah), first elected in 2014

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
John Curtis (R-Provo/Utah), first elected in 2016

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
David Hinkins (R-Orangeville/Emery), first elected in 2012

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City/Box Elder), first elected in 2002

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Evan Vickers (R-Cedar City/Irom), first elected in 2014


Total:
2016 – GOP 49 x DEM 25
2018 – GOP 41 x DEM 33 (D+8)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #23 on: July 12, 2020, 01:10:57 PM »

there's no roads between box elder county and tooele.

I may be mistaken, but after seeing your comment I went to look and found roads in the western part of the Great Salt Lake that connect one county to the other.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2020, 05:42:26 PM »

Kansas:


Kansas

Wichita

Overland Park

District 1:
PVI – R+6
President 2016: Trump +8%
President 2012: Romney +8%
President 2008: McCain +3%

Governor 2018: Kelly +14%
Senator 2016: Moran +17%

District 2:
PVI – R+19
President 2016: Trump +33%
President 2012: Romney +33%
President 2008: McCain +26%
Governor 2018: Kobach +5%
Senator 2016: Moran +43%



District 3:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Clinton +1%
President 2012: Romney +17%
President 2008: McCain +7%

Governor 2018: Kelly +20%
Senator 2016: Moran +15%

District 4:
PVI – R+3
President 2016: Clinton +2%
President 2012: Romney +7%
President 2008: Obama +1%
Governor 2018: Kelly +23%

Senator 2016: Moran +7%

District 5:

PVI – R+3
President 2016: Trump +8%

President 2012: Obama +1%
President 2008: Obama +8%
Governor 2018: Kelly +14%

Senator 2016: Moran +11%

District 6:
PVI – R+6
President 2016: Trump +7%
President 2012: Romney +8%
President 2008: McCain +6%

Governor 2018: Kelly +20%
Senator 2016: Moran +21%

District 7:
PVI – R+20
President 2016: Trump +41%
President 2012: Romney +31%
President 2008: McCain +23%
Governor 2018: Kobach +15%
Senator 2016: Moran +45%


District 8:
PVI – R+24
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2012: Romney +40%
President 2008: McCain +33%
Governor 2018: Kobach +14%
Senator 2016: Moran +53%


District 9:
PVI – R+31
President 2016: Trump +58%
President 2012: Romney +55%
President 2008: McCain +48%
Governor 2018: Kobach +28%
Senator 2016: Moran +67%



Kansas 1st District covers most of Wichita and was considered a tossup in 2018, but with the incumbent winning by a comfortable margin. The 2nd covers the western rest of Wichita, as well as the nearest counties. The 3rd District covers the 2nd largest city in the state, Overland Park. The 4th District covers Olathe and Lawrence.

The 5th District covers the northeast of the state, including Kansas City Kansas. The 6th District is located on the outskirts of Topeka, the state capital. The 7th covers southern Kansas. The 8th is in the center of the state, covering from the south of Wichita to the extreme north of Kansas. The 9th covers the entire western part of Kansas and is the most republican of the districts.


District 1 – Lean R in 2020
Ron Estes (R-Wichita/Sedgwick), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Todd Tiahrt (R-Wichita/Sedgwick), first elected in 1994

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park/Johnson), first elected in 2010, defeated in 2018
Barry Grissom (D-Leawood/Johnson), first elected in 2018

District 4 –Tossup in 2020
Sandy Praeger (R-Lawrence/Douglas), first elected in 2008, retired in 2018
Sharice Davids (D-Shawnee/Johnson), elected in 2018

District 5 – Lean R in 2020
Kelly Kultala (D-Kansas City/Wyandotte), first elected in 2008, defeated in 2016
Dennis Pyle (R-Hiawatha/Brown), elected in 2016

District 6 – Likely R in 2020
Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka/Shawnee), first elected in 2008, retired in 2018
Steve Watkins (R-Topeka/Shawnee), elected in 2018

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
Jeff Longbine (R-Emporia/Lyon), first elected in 2012

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Tracey Mann (R-Salina/Saline), first elected in 2012

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend/Barton), first elected in 2016


Total:
2016 – GOP 58 x DEM 25
2018 – GOP 48 x DEM 35 (D+10)

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