1000 Congressional Districts
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Adriano Chiká
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« on: July 01, 2020, 01:05:55 PM »

As the title says, this is a project in which the United States of America has 1000 Congressional Districts. I will use the information from the 2010 Census, and going through all the states.

The state with the most districts is California, with 121 districts, while 4 states have only 2 districts (Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota and Alaska).

I will try to place the results of the 2016-2018 elections in each District, as well as who could represent them.




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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 03:02:34 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:34:40 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Wyoming:



District 1:
President 2016: Trump +47%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Senate 2018: Barrasso +39%
Governor 2018: Gordon +43%


District 2:
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2008: McCain +29%
Senate 2018: Barrasso +35%
Governor 2018: Gordon +36%


Both districts in Wyoming are 100% Safe R, and have been represented by GOP representatives throughout the decade.

District 1 – Safe R in 2020
Liz Cheney (R-Teton), fisrt elected in 2012
District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Cynthia Lummis (R-Laramie), if she does not seek re-election in 2016, she would be succeeded by another GOP member, perhaps Rita Meyer, Darin Smith or Edward Buchanan. First elected in 2008.

Total:
2016 – GOP 2 x DEM 0
2018 – GOP 2 x DEM 0

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 03:51:56 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:35:24 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Vermont:



District 1:
President 2016: Clinton +25%
President 2008: Obama +37%
Senate 2018: Sanders +45%
Governor 2018: Scott +12%
Governor 2016: Scott +6%



District 2:
President 2016: Clinton +27%
President 2008: Obama +37%
Senate 2018: Sanders +45%
Governor 2018: Scott +17%
Governor 2016: Scott +12%



Although both districts voted for Phill Scott for governor in 2016 and 2018, both are Safe D and have been represented by members of the Democratic party for the entire decade.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Peter Welch (D-Windsor), first elected in 2006.

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Tim Ashe (D-Chittenden), first elected in 2016.

Total:
2016  - GOP 2 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 2 x DEM 2

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 05:13:26 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:36:45 PM by Adriano Chiká »

North Dakota:




District 1:
President 2016: Trump +22%
President 2008: Obama +2%
Senate 2018: Heitkamp +6%

Governor 2016: Burgum +52%

District 2:
President 2016: Trump +50%
President 2008: McCain +19%
Senate 2018: Cramer +27%
Governor 2016: Burgum +62%


Both North Dakota Districts were represented by Republicans this decade, despite tight disputes in 2010 and 2012 in the 1st District. In 2018, in the tightest race since 2012, the GOP won in the 1st District by 7%.

District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Rick Berg (R-Cass), fisrt elected in 2010. Mac Schneider (D-Grand Forks) won 46% of the vote in the 2018 midterm against the incumbent.

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Kevin Cramer (R-Burleigh), first elected in 2012, retired in 2018 to run for Senate
Kelly Armstrong (R-Stark) after 2018

Total:
2016  - GOP 4 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 4 x DEM 2

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2020, 03:52:21 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:37:29 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Alaska:




District 1:
President 2016: Trump +15%
President 2008: McCain +23%
Governor 2018: Dunleavy +10%


District 2:
President 2016: Trump +14%
President 2008: McCain +20%
Governor 2018: Dunleavy +4%


The 1st District is basically composed of Anchorage and some other nearby cities, while the 2nd District occupies the rest of the Alaska State territory.

District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Dan Sullivan (R-Anchorage), first elected in 2014.
The former Mayor of Anchorage seems the most obvious choice for a city-centered seat. Wasilla, the city of ex-governor Sarah Palin (R-Matanuska-Susitna) is also in 1st, so she could be another more remote option.

District 2 – Likely R in 2020
Don Young (R- Yukon-Koyukuk), first elected in 1973.
The city of Fort Yukon, Don Young's home is in the 2nd District, so he probably would have been representing the 2nd for decades. Despite a tight re-election in 2018, Young is the favorite to win again in 2020.

Total:
2016 – GOP 6 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 6 x DEM 2
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 04:02:22 PM »

Well, now that we’ve finished the 4 states with just 2 districts, we’ve gone through the easiest part of the project.
Any comments or suggestions about possible district representatives are welcome!
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« Reply #6 on: July 03, 2020, 03:42:15 AM »

Great job! I'm very interested to see South Dakota's CDs (I think SD will have 2 R and 1 D as Representatives and I hope Billie Sutton will be in U.S. House of Representative)
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #7 on: July 03, 2020, 06:11:08 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:38:46 PM by Adriano Chiká »

South Dakota:


District 1:
President 2016: Trump +20%
President 2008: McCain +2.5%

Governor 2018: Sutton +3%
Senator 2016: Thune +39%


District 2:
President 2016: Trump +35%
President 2008: McCain +5%
Governor 2018: Noem +4%
Senator 2016: Thune +46%



District 3:
President 2016: Trump +36%
President 2008: McCain +18%
Governor 2018: Noem +9%
Senator 2016: Thune +45%



South Dakota's three districts are extremely Republican, even the 1st District, which comprises the most populous part of the state, including Sioux Falls. Even in 1st, Sutton won by only 3% in 2018, while Trump and Thune won in 2016 respectively by 20% and 35%.


District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Shantel Krebs (R-Minnehaha), first elected in 2014.

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Kristi Noem (R-Hamlin), first elected in 2010, retired in 2018 to run for Governor
Dusty Johnson (R-Davidson) after 2018

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Marty Jackley (R-Hughes), first elected in 2012.



Total:
2016 – GOP 9 x DEM 2
2018 – GOP 9 x DEM 2
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« Reply #8 on: July 03, 2020, 09:48:27 PM »

Interestingly, here's what the electoral college map would look like

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=2hj3
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #9 on: July 04, 2020, 01:37:27 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:39:41 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Delaware:


District 1:
President 2016: Clinton +33%
President 2008: Obama +42%
Governor 2016: Carney +38%
Senator 2018: Carper +43%


District 2:
President 2016: Clinton +21%
President 2008: Obama +35%
Governor 2016: Carney +28%
Senator 2018: Carper +34%


District 3:
President 2016: Trump +18%
President 2008: McCain +4%
Governor 2016: Bonini +7%
Senator 2018: Arlett +7%



Delaware's 1st District comprises the northern part of the state and is mainly concentrated in the city of Wilmington. The 2nd District comprises the rest of New Castle County, as well as the northern part of Kent County, with Newark and Middletown as the largest cities, as well as the northern part of the city of Dover. The 3rd District covers the entire county of Sussex and the southern part of Kent County, and is the most republican part of the state, even though it has most of the city of Dover, the 2nd largest in the state.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington/New Castle), first elected in 2016.

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Valerie Longhurst (D-Bear/New Castle), first elected in 2014.

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Colin Bonini (R-South Dover/Kent), first elected in 2010.

Total:
2016 – GOP 10 x DEM 4
2018 – GOP 10 x DEM 4

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #10 on: July 04, 2020, 02:22:00 PM »
« Edited: July 06, 2020, 01:41:12 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Montana:



District 1:
President 2016: Trump +21%
President 2008: McCain +6%

Governor 2016: Bullock +1.5%
Senator 2018: Tester +2%



District 2:
President 2016: Trump +32%
President 2008: McCain +10%
Governor 2016: Gianforte +7%
Senator 2018: Rosendale +7%



District 3:
President 2016: Trump +7%
President 2008: Obama +7%
Governor 2016: Bullock +16%
Senator 2018: Tester +14%



The 1st District comprises the southeastern state of Montana, including the cities of Billings and Bozeman. The 2nd District covers the north of the state, and is the most republican district in the state, giving victories even to Gianforte and Rosendale in 2016 and 2018, respectively. The 3rd District is the most urban in the state, containing the cities of Missoula, Helena and Butte, and is the most Democratic of Montana's districts.



District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman/Gallatin), first elected in 2016.

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish/Flathead), first elected in 2012, retired in 2017.
Matt Rosendale (R-Wibaux), elected in 2017.

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Carol Williams (D-Missoula), retired in 2014
Rick Hill (R-Helena/Lewis and Clark), elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Jon Sesso (D-Butte/Silver Bow), elected in 2018


Total:
2016 – GOP 13 x DEM 4
2018 – GOP 12 x DEM 5 (D+1)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #11 on: July 04, 2020, 04:16:57 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:10:01 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Rhode Island:


District 1:
PVI - D+25
President 2016: Clinton +46%
President 2008: Obama +53%
Governor 2018: Raimondo +45%
Senator 2018: Whitehouse +53%


District 2:
PVI - D+1
President 2016: Trump +4%
President 2008: Obama +15%
Governor 2018: Fung +7%
Senator 2018: Whitehouse +5%

District 3:
PVI - D+7
President 2016: Clinton +12%
President 2008: Obama +22%
Governor 2018: Raimondo +17%
Senator 2018: Whitehouse +20%



Rhode Island's 1st District is the state's most democratic and most urban, concentrating the state's largest city and capital, Providence, as well as East Providence, North Providence and Pawtucket.
The 2nd District covers the rest of Providence County, as well as Kent County (with the exception of the city of Warwick). The 2nd largest city is Cranston. It is the only district in the state represented by a GOP member, and was considered a great pickup opportunity in 2018, with Allan Fung's reelection by 2% considered an upset.
The 3rd District covers the entire southern part of the state, being the largest city in the 3rd Warwick. Although less democratic than the 1st, it is still Safe D.



District 1 – Safe D in 2020
David Cicilline (D-Providence), first elected in 2010.

District 2 – Tossup in 2020
Allan Fung (R-Cranston/Providence), first elected in 2012.

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
James Langevin (D-Warwick/Kent), first elected in 2000.


Total:
2016 – GOP 14 x DEM 6
2018 – GOP 13 x DEM 7 (D+1)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #12 on: July 05, 2020, 01:56:35 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:08:51 PM by Adriano Chiká »

New Hampshire:


District 1:
PVI - R+2
President 2016: Trump +2%

President 2008: Obama +3.5%
Governor 2018: Sununu +10%
Governor 2016: Sununu +6%
Senator 2016: Ayotte +5%


District 2:
PVI - D+4
President 2016: Clinton +7%
President 2008: Obama +16%

Governor 2018: Sununu +1%
Governor 2016: Van Ostern +6%
Senator 2016: Hassan +7%


District 3:
PVI - D+1
President 2016: Clinton +0.5%
President 2008: Obama +15%

Governor 2018: Sununu +6%
Governor 2016: Van Ostern +0.5%
Senator 2016: Hassan +2%



District 4:
PVI - R+3
President 2016: Trump +2%

President 2008: Obama +4%
Governor 2018: Sununu +11%
Governor 2016: Sununu +9%
Senator 2016: Ayotte +3%



The 4 New Hampshire districts are considered to be extremely competitive in virtually every election year. The most Democratic of the districts is the 2nd, represented by Ann McLane Kuster, who faced tight elections against Frank Guinta in 2012, 2014 and 2016, former mayor of Manchester.
The 1st is, by a small margin, the most republican district in New Hampshire. The district was represented by Charles Bass from the 1990s to 2018, when the former incumbent was defeated by Jim Donchess, former Nashua mayor.
The 3rd District has been represented by Jeb Bradley since the early 2000s. Despite having voted for Clinton, Van Ostern and Hassan in 2016, Bradley survived a tight re-election in 2016, in one of the tightest races of that year. But the incumbent, despite having been tested in many battles, was defeated in 2018, in an upset.
The 4th District was almost as republican as the 1st, and Representative Marilinda Garcia was considered a rising star for the GOP in New Hampshire. But in 2018, completing the disastrous year for the state party, Marilinda lost by a margin of less than 1% to Maura Sullivan, former Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs, who had moved to the state less than two years ago.

District 1 – Tossup in 2020
Charles Bass (R-Peterborough/Hillsborough), first elected in 1994, defeated in 2018
Jim Donchess (D-Nashua/Hillsborough), elected in 2018

District 2 – Lean D in 2020
Ann McLane Kuster (D-Hopkinton/Merrimack), first elected in 2012.

District 3 – Lean D in 2020
Jeb Bradley (R-Wolfeboro/Carroll), first elected in 2002, defeated in 2018
Andrew Hosmer (D-Laconia/Belknap), elected in 2018

District 4 – Tossup in 2020
Marilinda Garcia (R-Rockingham), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Maura Sullivan (D-Portsmouth/Rockingham), elected in 2018


Total:
2016 – GOP 17 x DEM 7
2018 – GOP 13 x DEM 11 (D+4)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2020, 02:27:20 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:07:55 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Maine:


District 1:
PVI - D+10
President 2016: Clinton +20%
President 2008: Obama +29%
Governor 2018: Mills +22%
Senator 2018: King +30%


District 2:
PVI - D+4
President 2016: Clinton +5%
President 2008: Obama +17%
Governor 2018: Mills +7%
Senator 2018: King +21%


District 3:
PVI - R+2
President 2016: Trump +11%

President 2008: Obama +13%
Governor 2018: Moody +4%
Senator 2018: King +11%

District 4:
PVI - R+1
President 2016: Trump +4%

President 2008: Obama +9%
Governor 2018: Mills +3%
Senator 2018: King +12%



Maine's 1st District is the most Democratic in the state, and is comprised of York County, in addition to Maine's most populous city, Portland. The 2nd District is considered Likely D and has the largest city Lewiston, the 2nd largest in the state.

The 3rd District is the most republican in the state and covers the entire northern part of the state. After 2018, it is the only district to be represented by the GOP in the state, with Bruce Poliquin getting reelected by about 1.5%.

The 4th District is the most competitive in the State. Represented by Democrat Mike Michaud, until 2014, when he did not run for re-election to run for governor. In a tight election in 2014, Mike Thibodeau defeated Chellie Pingree. In 2018, however, Thibodeau was defeated to Chellie's daughter Hannah Pingree.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Cynthia Dill (D-Cape Elizabeth/Cumberland), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Likely D in 2020
Jared Golden (D-Lewiston/Androscoggin), first elected in 2016

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Bruce Poliquin (R-Waterville/Kennebec), first elected in 2012

District 4 – Tossup in 2020
Mike Michaud (D-East Millinocket/Penobscot), retired in 2014 to run for Governor
Mike Thibodeau (R-Waldo), elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Hannah Pingree (R-North Haven/Knox), elected in 2018


Total:
2016 – GOP 19 x DEM 9
2018 – GOP 14 x DEM 14 (D+5)

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« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2020, 03:22:16 PM »

Good job!
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #15 on: July 06, 2020, 03:38:44 PM »


Thanks!
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2020, 03:39:07 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 04:07:04 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Hawaii:


Hawaii

Oahu Island

District 1:
PVI - D+20
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +46%
Governor 2018: Ige +38%
Senate 2018: Hirono +47%
Senate 2016: Schatz +55%


District 2:
PVI - D+16
President 2016: Clinton +30%
President 2008: Obama +40%
Governor 2018: Ige +29%
Senate 2018: Hirono +37%
Senate 2016: Schatz +50%


District 3:
PVI - D+13
President 2016: Clinton +20%
President 2008: Obama +39%
Governor 2018: Ige +12%
Senate 2018: Hirono +32%
Senate 2016: Schatz +45%


District 4:
PVI - D+22
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +54%
Governor 2018: Ige +35%
Senate 2018: Hirono +51%
Senate 2016: Schatz +54%




Like the state, Hawaii's 4 districts are completely Safe D. The 1st District covers only the city of Honolulu, while the 2nd District covers the cities closest to the capital.
The 3rd District covers the rest of the island of Oahu which is not covered by the 1st and 2nd, as well as the western islands of the state: Kauai and Niihau. The 4th District covers the eastern islands of the state: Big Island, Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai and Molokai.



District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Mufi Hannemann (D-Honolulu), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Ed Case (D-Kaneohe/Honolulu), first elected in 2002

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Bernard Carvalho (D-Kauai), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Gil Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), died in 2016.
Kai Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), first elected in 2016.


Total:
2016 – GOP 19 x DEM 13
2018 – GOP 14 x DEM 18 (D+5)

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« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2020, 03:56:04 PM »

Hawaii:


Hawaii

Oahu Island

District 1:
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +46%
Governor 2018: Ige +38%
Senate 2018: Hirono +47%
Senate 2016: Schatz +55%


District 2:
President 2016: Clinton +30%
President 2008: Obama +40%
Governor 2018: Ige +29%
Senate 2018: Hirono +37%
Senate 2016: Schatz +50%


District 3:
President 2016: Clinton +20%
President 2008: Obama +39%
Governor 2018: Ige +12%
Senate 2018: Hirono +32%
Senate 2016: Schatz +45%


District 4:
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +54%
Governor 2018: Ige +35%
Senate 2018: Hirono +51%
Senate 2016: Schatz +54%




Like the state, Hawaii's 4 districts are completely Safe D. The 1st District covers only the city of Honolulu, while the 2nd District covers the cities closest to the capital.
The 3rd District covers the rest of the island of Oahu which is not covered by the 1st and 2nd, as well as the western islands of the state: Kauai and Niihau. The 4th District covers the eastern islands of the state: Big Island, Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai and Molokai.



District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Mufi Hannemann (D-Honolulu), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Ed Case (D-Kaneohe/Honolulu), first elected in 2002

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Bernard Carvalho (D-Kauai), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Gil Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), died in 2016.
Kai Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), first elected in 2016.


Total:
2016 – GOP 19 x DEM 13
2018 – GOP 14 x DEM 18 (D+5)




I'm pretty sure Tulsi Gabbard would be the Representative in one of those districts.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #18 on: July 06, 2020, 04:07:37 PM »

Hawaii:


Hawaii

Oahu Island

District 1:
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +46%
Governor 2018: Ige +38%
Senate 2018: Hirono +47%
Senate 2016: Schatz +55%


District 2:
President 2016: Clinton +30%
President 2008: Obama +40%
Governor 2018: Ige +29%
Senate 2018: Hirono +37%
Senate 2016: Schatz +50%


District 3:
President 2016: Clinton +20%
President 2008: Obama +39%
Governor 2018: Ige +12%
Senate 2018: Hirono +32%
Senate 2016: Schatz +45%


District 4:
President 2016: Clinton +39%
President 2008: Obama +54%
Governor 2018: Ige +35%
Senate 2018: Hirono +51%
Senate 2016: Schatz +54%




Like the state, Hawaii's 4 districts are completely Safe D. The 1st District covers only the city of Honolulu, while the 2nd District covers the cities closest to the capital.
The 3rd District covers the rest of the island of Oahu which is not covered by the 1st and 2nd, as well as the western islands of the state: Kauai and Niihau. The 4th District covers the eastern islands of the state: Big Island, Maui, Kahoolawe, Lanai and Molokai.



District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Mufi Hannemann (D-Honolulu), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Ed Case (D-Kaneohe/Honolulu), first elected in 2002

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Bernard Carvalho (D-Kauai), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Gil Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), died in 2016.
Kai Kahele (D-Hilo/Hawaii), first elected in 2016.


Total:
2016 – GOP 19 x DEM 13
2018 – GOP 14 x DEM 18 (D+5)




I'm pretty sure Tulsi Gabbard would be the Representative in one of those districts.

Tulsi Gabbard resides in the 1st District, and could run in the 2nd as well. The 2nd has been occupied by Ed Case since 2002, while the 1st had the last election open in 2010. Tulsi could challenge Mufi Hannemann in a primary or run when he decided to retire or run for Governor / Senator, after all, she is still quite young.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #19 on: July 07, 2020, 04:57:53 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 12:07:44 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Idaho:


Idaho


Boise

Unfortunately in the app I use (DRA 2020), there is little information about the outcome of the elections in Idaho.

District 1:
PVI - R+4
President 2008: McCain +1%


District 2:
PVI - R+22
President 2008: McCain +33%


District 3:
PVI - R+27
President 2008: McCain +40%


District 4:
PVI - R+19
President 2008: McCain +21%


District 5:
PVI - R+25
President 2008: McCain +37%



The 1st District of Idaho is the only competitive district in the state and comprises the cities of Boise and Meridian. After a tight re-election in 2016, Russ Fulchef was defeated in 2018 against Dave Bieter, the former mayor of Boise.

The 2nd District covers the southwest of the State, including its 2nd largest city, Nampa. The 3rd District extends throughout the central part of the state. The 4th focuses mainly on the Panhandle. The 5th District is in southeastern Idaho, with Idaho Falls as the largest city.


District 1 – Lean D in 2020
Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian/Ada), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Dave Bieter (D-Boise/Ada), elected in 2018

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Raul Labrador (R-Eagle/Ada), first elected in 2010

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Brent Hill (R-Rexburg/Madison), first elected in 2008

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
Luke Malek (R-Coeur Dalene/Kootenai), first elected in 2016

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls/Bonneville), first elected in 1998.


Total:
2016 – GOP 24 x DEM 13
2018 – GOP 18 x DEM 19 (D+6)

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« Reply #20 on: July 07, 2020, 05:43:38 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 12:08:19 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Nebraska:


Nebraska

 
Omaha

District 1:
PVI - R+6
President 2016: Trump +7%
President 2008: McCain +4%


District 2:
PVI - EVEN
President 2016: Clinton +6%
President 2008: Obama +7%


District 3:
PVI - R+22
President 2016: Trump +39%
President 2008: McCain +27%


District 4:
PVI - R+3
President 2016: Trump +3%

President 2008: Obama +3%

District 5:
PVI - R+22
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2008: McCain +27%


District 6:
PVI - R+30
President 2016: Trump +61%
President 2008: McCain +43%




Nebraska's 1st District covers the cities of Papillion, Bellevue and the entire county of Sarpy, as well as the south of the city of Omaha. The 2nd District covers most of the city of Omaha and the rest of Douglas County, and is the most democratic district in the state.

The 3rd District covers the entire northeast of Nebrasaka State, while the 5th District covers the entire southeast. The 4th District was the most competitive in 2018, when Democrat Chris Beutler, in an upset, defeated former incumbent Jeff Fortenberry. The 6th District is the most republican in the state and one of the most republican in the country, having voted for Trump by a margin of more than 60%.


District 1 – Lean R in 2020
Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Sarpy), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Likely D in 2020
Brad Ashford (D-Omaha/Douglas), first elected in 2014

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Beau McCoy (R-Omaha/Douglas), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Tossup in 2020
Jeff Fortenberry (R-Lincoln/Lancaster), first elected in 2004, defeated in 2018
Chris Beutler (D-Lincoln/Lancaster), elected in 2018

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Rick Sheehy (R-Hasting/Adams), first elected in 2008.

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Adrian Smith (R-Gering/Scotts Bluff), first elected in 2006.



Total:
2016 – GOP 29 x DEM 14
2018 – GOP 22 x DEM 21 (D+7)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2020, 04:52:02 PM »
« Edited: July 09, 2020, 03:59:34 PM by Adriano Chiká »

West Virginia:



District 1:
PVI - R+19
President 2008: McCain +16%


District 2:
PVI - R+16
President 2008: McCain +9%


District 3:
PVI - R+14
President 2008: McCain +4%


District 4:
PVI - R+21
President 2008: McCain +20%


District 5:
PVI - R+25
President 2008: McCain +16%


District 6:
PVI - R+21
President 2008: McCain +14%



All 6 districts in the state are considered Safe R. The 1st district covers northeast West Virginia. 2 ° covers upstate, including Morgantown. The 3rd covers the central part of the state, including the capital Charleston. The 4th covers the northwest portion, including Parkersburg and Wheeling. The 5th covers the south of the state. The 6th district covers west West Virginia, including Huntington.


District 1 – Safe R in 2020
Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town/Jefferson), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
John Raese (R-Morgantown/Monongalia), first elected in 2006

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Steve Harrison (R-Cross Lanes/Kanawha), first elected in 2006

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
David McKinley (R-Wheeling/Ohio), first elected in 2010

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Bill Cole (R-Bluefield/Mercer), first elected in 2012.

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Evan Jenkins (R-Huntington/Cabell), first elected in 2014, retired in 2018 to run for Senate
Carol Miller (R-Huntington/Cabell), elected in 2018.


Total:
2016 – GOP 35 x DEM 14
2018 – GOP 28 x DEM 21 (D+7)

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« Reply #22 on: July 08, 2020, 06:09:15 PM »

Idaho should have options in DRA 2020. PVI might be the best since 2008 was a good while ago.
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Continential
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« Reply #23 on: July 08, 2020, 06:16:02 PM »

Presuming a good candidate runs in District 3, it could flip. I'd rate it Likely R.
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« Reply #24 on: July 08, 2020, 06:30:38 PM »

Good job!
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