Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
Posts: 25,734
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« on: July 09, 2020, 06:02:10 PM » |
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No Republican wins the NYC Mayoralty without (A) significant splits in the Democratic Party and (B) Significant support for the Republican nominee by prominent Democratic pols.
Rudy Giuliani won in 1993 as the nominee of the Republican and LIBERAL parties. He won because the business interests of NYC (most of whom were nominal Democrats) let it be known that the problems with crime in NYC had become unacceptable. Prominent organization Democrats broke ranks to support Giuliani's election. And they endorsed him on the Liberal Party Line. In NY, a person can be the nominee of more than one party, and if he's the nominee of more than one party his/her name will appear on the "line" of each party. Many (though not all) Democrats had the Liberal Party nomination; Giuliani's acceptance of the Liberal Party nomination was a way the Democrats could have their hacks support Giuliani and them on the same ballot line (the Liberal line, which, I believe, was Row D back then).
The minor party scene is different today; there are more parties, and the Liberal Party no longer fields candidates. But in NY, you can register and run for the nomination of the Conservative Party, Libertarian Party, Working Families Party, Independence Party, and there are others.
What would happen, for example, if, say, AOC became the nominee for Mayor on the Working Families Party? Then, let's say, someone like Christine Quinn became nominee of the Independence Party, but lost the primary? Then, let's say that someone as out there as Public Advocate Jumanne Williams won the Democratic nomination with 40% of the vote. Let's say someone like Christine Quinn wished to fill the Law and Order Niche. She could obtain the GOP nomination (even though the's a partisan Hillary Democrat) and possibly win as a fusion candidate. Or, an independent Democrat (in the Bloomberg tradition) could become a Republican and possibly win.
In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime. Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from? The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now. A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.
NYC needs to stop the madness, but I can't see the NYC electorate putting a candidate serious about Law Enforcement in the Mayor's chair until people come out of denial as to the fact that they NEED the NYPD to do what it does. I don't see that happening soon.
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