Can a law and order NYC Republican win again?

[Suburbia]

Can a law and order Republican without Rudy Giuliani's personal and political baggage win again?

A lot of New Yorkers are worried about crime since the Floyd-BLM protests and NYC shootings have tripled even though we are in a coronavirus pandemic.

Is Giuliani the last NYC GOP mayor for at least a generation?

[iceman]

well, first things first, Bloomberg was a GOP mayor for most of his first 2 terms... so, not quite Giuliani was the last GOP mayor.

[Oryxslayer]

Man, Bronz really wants his outdated worldview to come back into fashion.

[Roll Roons]

I actually do wonder what kind of circumstances it would take for a Republican to be elected mayor in NYC again. For Rudy, it was a couple decades of urban decay, and Mike won right after 9/11.

Presumably, they would need to get Hogan numbers with blacks, North Korea-like margins with Staten Island whites and Orthodox Jews, make inroads with Asians, flip some socially conservative, Ruben Diaz-type Hispanics, and get just enough upscale whites in Manhattan. I guess it's possible, but it would be an exceptionally steep climb. They would also have to be socially moderate and maybe a self-funder.

[Person Man]

I actually do wonder what kind of circumstances it would take for a Republican to be elected mayor in NYC again. For Rudy, it was a couple decades of urban decay, and Mike won right after 9/11.

Presumably, they would need to get Hogan numbers with blacks, North Korea-like margins with Staten Island whites and Orthodox Jews, make inroads with Asians, and get just enough upscale whites in Manhattan. I guess it's possible, but it would be an exceptionally steep climb. They would also have to be socially moderate and maybe a self-funder.

Like Mike Bloomberg? Although I could see someone like Charlie Crist making it.

[Suburbia]

Man, Bronz really wants his outdated worldview to come back into fashion.

It's not outdated, people generally vote right if they fear crime rates rising.

[Orwell]

Man, Bronz really wants his outdated worldview to come back into fashion.

It's not outdated, people generally vote right if they fear crime rates rising.

Like... maybe historically, but we've seen in recent years that this isn't relevant anymore. Like even by the time of the 2nd Koch v. Cuomo matchup things had changed drastically, I think truly Giuliani was the last of the tough on crime Republicans to inhabit City hall.

[darklordoftech]

Man, Bronz really wants his outdated worldview to come back into fashion.

It's not outdated, people generally vote right if they fear crime rates rising.

But crime rates have been low for 23 years and there’s law and order Democrats.

[Intell]

A breed style (SF) independent could win in NYC against a progressive democrat.

[smoltchanov]

A breed style (SF) independent could win in NYC against a progressive democrat.

Well, Breed-style independent would have very little in common with Republicans..

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Not likely, but a law-and-order Democrat/independent might have a chance.

[Intell]

A breed style (SF) independent could win in NYC against a progressive democrat.

Well, Breed-style independent would have very little in common with Republicans..

Law and Order

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Maybe?

But (currently, anyway) you have all the law and order Democrats you want. For example, LA County district attorney is a Black woman but she is also a law and order Democrat and progressive groups have criticized her non stop.

[Damocles]

No, not in the current climate, especially with how toxic and loaded that phrase has become as of late. “Law and order”, sure, but for whom - White supremacists?

[Ye We Can]

In 10 years or so, probably

[Person Man]

Can any Republican win NYC?

[Galeel]

If a Republican can even win in NYC at all, it would have to be an ultra-moderate, basically a Democrat type Republican, not a law-and-order type.

[Badger]

Short of a MAJOR split in the Democrats, maybe an establishment vs DSA wing where one won the WFP line and ran a serious 3rd party challenge.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Short of a MAJOR split in the Democrats, maybe an establishment vs DSA wing where one won the WFP line and ran a serious 3rd party challenge.

The Ruben Diaz vs Samelys Lopez scenario.

[Person Man]

So basically Joe Biden vs. Bernie Sanders in NYC would be a competitive election

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

No Republican wins the NYC Mayoralty without (A) significant splits in the Democratic Party and (B) Significant support for the Republican nominee by prominent Democratic pols.

Rudy Giuliani won in 1993 as the nominee of the Republican and LIBERAL parties.  He won because the business interests of NYC (most of whom were nominal Democrats) let it be known that the problems with crime in NYC had become unacceptable.  Prominent organization Democrats broke ranks to support Giuliani's election.  And they endorsed him on the Liberal Party Line.  In NY, a person can be the nominee of more than one party, and if he's the nominee of more than one party his/her name will appear on the "line" of each party.  Many (though not all) Democrats had the Liberal Party nomination; Giuliani's acceptance of the Liberal Party nomination was a way the Democrats could have their hacks support Giuliani and them on the same ballot line (the Liberal line, which, I believe, was Row D back then). 

The minor party scene is different today; there are more parties, and the Liberal Party no longer fields candidates.  But in NY, you can register and run for the nomination of the Conservative Party, Libertarian Party, Working Families Party, Independence Party, and there are others. 

What would happen, for example, if, say, AOC became the nominee for Mayor on the Working Families Party?  Then, let's say, someone like Christine Quinn became nominee of the Independence Party, but lost the primary?  Then, let's say that someone as out there as Public Advocate Jumanne Williams won the Democratic nomination with 40% of the vote.  Let's say someone like Christine Quinn wished to fill the Law and Order Niche.  She could obtain the GOP nomination (even though the's a partisan Hillary Democrat) and possibly win as a fusion candidate.  Or, an independent Democrat (in the Bloomberg tradition) could become a Republican and possibly win.

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

NYC needs to stop the madness, but I can't see the NYC electorate putting a candidate serious about Law Enforcement in the Mayor's chair until people come out of denial as to the fact that they NEED the NYPD to do what it does.  I don't see that happening soon.

[Tintrlvr]

The white population in NYC has only dropped somewhat in the past two decades, but that really masks the reality that the non-Yuppie white population has cratered, virtually disappearing in the Bronx, collapsing in Queens (cf. Joe Crowley), declining strikingly in Brooklyn and losing dominance in Staten Island. Correspondingly, the Yuppie white population has soared in Brooklyn and also grown in Queens and of course Manhattan, while of course immigrant populations have also soared. The Republicans really needed to be winning 70+% of the white vote in NYC to win city-wide; that was possible with 90s demographics but isn't realistic any more, not when millennial and, going forward, zoomer transplants make up an ever-larger share of the shrinking white vote. And the Republicans have become increasingly toxic to the ever-growing populations of Asian, Latino and Afro-Caribbean voters that used to be areas where they could make some inroads.

[cinyc]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

[Suburbia]

The white population in NYC has only dropped somewhat in the past two decades, but that really masks the reality that the non-Yuppie white population has cratered, virtually disappearing in the Bronx, collapsing in Queens (cf. Joe Crowley), declining strikingly in Brooklyn and losing dominance in Staten Island. Correspondingly, the Yuppie white population has soared in Brooklyn and also grown in Queens and of course Manhattan, while of course immigrant populations have also soared. The Republicans really needed to be winning 70+% of the white vote in NYC to win city-wide; that was possible with 90s demographics but isn't realistic any more, not when millennial and, going forward, zoomer transplants make up an ever-larger share of the shrinking white vote. And the Republicans have become increasingly toxic to the ever-growing populations of Asian, Latino and Afro-Caribbean voters that used to be areas where they could make some inroads.

True.

[Badger]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!