Can a law and order NYC Republican win again?

[Suburbia]

Can a law and order Republican without Rudy Giuliani's personal and political baggage win again?

A lot of New Yorkers are worried about crime since the Floyd-BLM protests and NYC shootings have tripled even though we are in a coronavirus pandemic.

Is Giuliani the last NYC GOP mayor for at least a generation?

[Suburbia]

Man, Bronz really wants his outdated worldview to come back into fashion.

It's not outdated, people generally vote right if they fear crime rates rising.

[Suburbia]

The white population in NYC has only dropped somewhat in the past two decades, but that really masks the reality that the non-Yuppie white population has cratered, virtually disappearing in the Bronx, collapsing in Queens (cf. Joe Crowley), declining strikingly in Brooklyn and losing dominance in Staten Island. Correspondingly, the Yuppie white population has soared in Brooklyn and also grown in Queens and of course Manhattan, while of course immigrant populations have also soared. The Republicans really needed to be winning 70+% of the white vote in NYC to win city-wide; that was possible with 90s demographics but isn't realistic any more, not when millennial and, going forward, zoomer transplants make up an ever-larger share of the shrinking white vote. And the Republicans have become increasingly toxic to the ever-growing populations of Asian, Latino and Afro-Caribbean voters that used to be areas where they could make some inroads.

True.

[Suburbia]

Maybe in 2025, 2029, or 2033

Trump and Giuliani poisoned the NYC GOP for 2021

Giuliani doesn't matter anymore in NYC, except for Queens and Staten Island

Maybe in the 2030s, or 2025 if crime increases, someone like Eric Ulrich wins or someone like that

[Suburbia]

What the heck is a "law and order" Repub-

Wait, actually, don't answer that. I think I already know...

A law and order Republican is a Giuliani-type without the personal and racial baggage Giuliani has

Someone like an Eric Ulrich or so on....that Republican will have to distance from Giuliani from now on

[Suburbia]

Would that Republican have to appeal to Black voters or should they ignore Black voters since the GOP and Black Lives Matter can't get along?

[Suburbia]

We just elected one to congress.

Not for mayor, however.

[Suburbia]

We just elected one to congress.

From Staten Island. The most atypical New York borough. So much so, that some refuse to consider it as part of New York city (including some people living there)...

Staten Island is NYC....it is just a far out borough

[Suburbia]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

NYC Asians have a different socioeconomic and educational profile than elsewhere. Tbh I can't see any Republican winning NYC without also making significant gains with black voters.

What if that NYC Republican sees no reason to engage with Black voters, doesn't care about Black voters to engage them and just appeals to white ethnics+Latinos+Asians+LGBTQ voters and talks about crime.......

[Suburbia]

Jonathan Judge?

https://www.brooklynpaper.com/boro-young-republican-leader-out-but-successor-vows-to-continue-fighting-party-establishment/

[Suburbia]

The former has higher baseline Republican support, but the latter is swinging R more, at least nationally. Not sure if the dynamic with Chinese + Koreans + Filipinos vs Indians + Bangladeshis is different in NYC.

It is. Recent Chinese immigrants are trending R, Koreans, Fillipinos, Indians, and Bangladeshis aren't. Peter Liang was a big catalyst here.

Like lfromnj said, I don’t think any “law and order” Republican could win NYC unless violent crime rises enough to make black voters vote more R. This clip of a black veteran yelling at white (potential?) looters illustrates what I’m getting at.

This is a staged video bro. I actually live here and know the reality of the situation. Being against "crime" here is pretty well divorced from being pro cop. NYPD's enforcement of social distancing basically was a bunch of cops saying it was illegal for black ppl to hang out together. Caused enormous resentment, especially in more heavily patrolled areas like Crown Heights, Flatbush, etc. You're not gonna see pro-cop politics make sways into the Black community until the old guard leaves, which is never.
Looting happened because everyone knew cops were out patrolling the marches. You'd be a fool not to go pick up free designer clothing that was headed to the trash heap anyways (it was all Spring Season stuff).
The cops tried this year to make it into a salient issue. Literally only worked where cops live (South Brooklyn. Staten, Lawn Guy Land). And still, they couldn't flip a single seat in the Assembly or the Senate. Pathetic. If it didn't work this time, why would it work next year?

Monica Martinez lost to pro cop Alexis Weik, who will be on a presidential ticket one day. So, the cops made NY competitive, which is good. One party states are not good. The cops are not going anywhere, 2021, 2022, they could flip Nassau and Suffolk back to red Republican. Long Island is a swing region.

[Suburbia]

Looks like bronz was right about everything afterall.

You guys don't listen to me. I told y'all for years that there was going to be a backlash to bail reform, etc. I agree with aspects of bail reform, but the way it was implemented was not right.

Italians live near inner cities, some of them live in inner cities, and obviously they'd vote like that.

Adams is a law and order Dem though