Can a law and order NYC Republican win again?

[cinyc]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

You laugh, but de Blasio's plan to ditch the test and put racial quotas in NYC's elite public high school admissions has led to protests from the Asian community.

[warandwar]

^ important to differentiate between East Asian and South Asian here. Flushing went pretty hard for Katz in the DA election, iirc. Doubt that South Asians would ever go in for a "Law and Order" candidate - too many memories of NYPD surveilling mosques.

[Suburbia]

Maybe in 2025, 2029, or 2033

Trump and Giuliani poisoned the NYC GOP for 2021

Giuliani doesn't matter anymore in NYC, except for Queens and Staten Island

Maybe in the 2030s, or 2025 if crime increases, someone like Eric Ulrich wins or someone like that

[lfromnj]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

The SHSAT in NYC is actually an issue that takes place each year and removing it would mostly affect Asian students as most white libs in Manhattan send their kids to private school, but overall yes it would require an actual serious crime increase throughout the city to like 80's levels.

[Xing]

What the heck is a "law and order" Repub-

Wait, actually, don't answer that. I think I already know...

[Suburbia]

What the heck is a "law and order" Repub-

Wait, actually, don't answer that. I think I already know...

A law and order Republican is a Giuliani-type without the personal and racial baggage Giuliani has

Someone like an Eric Ulrich or so on....that Republican will have to distance from Giuliani from now on

[Suburbia]

Would that Republican have to appeal to Black voters or should they ignore Black voters since the GOP and Black Lives Matter can't get along?

[LimoLiberal]

No, but a law and order NYC Democrat can.

Go Max Rose!

[Tekken_Guy]

We just elected one to congress.

[smoltchanov]

We just elected one to congress.

From Staten Island. The most atypical New York borough. So much so, that some refuse to consider it as part of New York city (including some people living there)...

[Suburbia]

We just elected one to congress.

Not for mayor, however.

[Suburbia]

We just elected one to congress.

From Staten Island. The most atypical New York borough. So much so, that some refuse to consider it as part of New York city (including some people living there)...

Staten Island is NYC....it is just a far out borough

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

NYC Asians have a different socioeconomic and educational profile than elsewhere. Tbh I can't see any Republican winning NYC without also making significant gains with black voters.

[Suburbia]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

NYC Asians have a different socioeconomic and educational profile than elsewhere. Tbh I can't see any Republican winning NYC without also making significant gains with black voters.

What if that NYC Republican sees no reason to engage with Black voters, doesn't care about Black voters to engage them and just appeals to white ethnics+Latinos+Asians+LGBTQ voters and talks about crime.......

[Hammy]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

NYC Asians have a different socioeconomic and educational profile than elsewhere. Tbh I can't see any Republican winning NYC without also making significant gains with black voters.

What if that NYC Republican sees no reason to engage with Black voters, doesn't care about Black voters to engage them and just appeals to white ethnics+Latinos+Asians+LGBTQ voters and talks about crime.......

Everyone listed above (except for whites) are wary about over-policing (which is what "law and order" rhetoric really is) and if that's all they talk about, they won't make significant gains with them.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

^ important to differentiate between East Asian and South Asian here. Flushing went pretty hard for Katz in the DA election, iirc. Doubt that South Asians would ever go in for a "Law and Order" candidate - too many memories of NYPD surveilling mosques.

The former has higher baseline Republican support, but the latter is swinging R more, at least nationally. Not sure if the dynamic with Chinese + Koreans + Filipinos vs Indians + Bangladeshis is different in NYC.

NYC Asians have a different socioeconomic and educational profile than elsewhere. Tbh I can't see any Republican winning NYC without also making significant gains with black voters.

What if that NYC Republican sees no reason to engage with Black voters, doesn't care about Black voters to engage them and just appeals to white ethnics+Latinos+Asians+LGBTQ voters and talks about crime.......

Like lfromnj said, I don’t think any “law and order” Republican could win NYC unless violent crime rises enough to make black voters vote more R. This clip of a black veteran yelling at white (potential?) looters illustrates what I’m getting at.

[Suburbia]

Jonathan Judge?

https://www.brooklynpaper.com/boro-young-republican-leader-out-but-successor-vows-to-continue-fighting-party-establishment/

[MATTROSE94]

John Catsimatidis or Curtis Sliwa probably wins the 2021 NYC mayoral election.

[Intell]

In order for that to happen, the city would need to reach critical mass on the issue of crime.  Staten Island is likely to shift more strongly to the GOP, but where else will the votes come from?  The white working class that nominated Mario Procaccino (1969), Abe Beame (1973) and Ed Koch (1977) isn't there now.  A candidate like Mario Biaggi (a conservative Democrat who was a favorite for the Mayoralty before it turned out he lied to a Grand Jury) doesn't have a constituency anymore.

A coalition of what's left of the outer borough middle class white ethnic voters, Asians and Hispanics fed up with crime in their neighborhoods, and Asians fed up with "progressive" affirmative action policies that discriminate against them and their children.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!

Oh wait, you're serious that Asians, specially New York City, are going to rise up over affirmative action? In a mayoral election? Let me stop and laugh harder.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

NYC Asians have a different socioeconomic and educational profile than elsewhere. Tbh I can't see any Republican winning NYC without also making significant gains with black voters.

What if that NYC Republican sees no reason to engage with Black voters, doesn't care about Black voters to engage them and just appeals to white ethnics+Latinos+Asians+LGBTQ voters and talks about crime.......

Everyone listed above (except for whites) are wary about over-policing (which is what "law and order" rhetoric really is) and if that's all they talk about, they won't make significant gains with them.

No Law and Order are very popular in asian communities.

[warandwar]

John Catsimatidis or Curtis Sliwa probably wins the 2021 NYC mayoral election.

Lmao, they're both sentient piles of capicola. I'm sure they'd do well in Gerritsen Beach.

[warandwar]

The former has higher baseline Republican support, but the latter is swinging R more, at least nationally. Not sure if the dynamic with Chinese + Koreans + Filipinos vs Indians + Bangladeshis is different in NYC.

It is. Recent Chinese immigrants are trending R, Koreans, Fillipinos, Indians, and Bangladeshis aren't. Peter Liang was a big catalyst here.

Like lfromnj said, I don’t think any “law and order” Republican could win NYC unless violent crime rises enough to make black voters vote more R. This clip of a black veteran yelling at white (potential?) looters illustrates what I’m getting at.

This is a staged video bro. I actually live here and know the reality of the situation. Being against "crime" here is pretty well divorced from being pro cop. NYPD's enforcement of social distancing basically was a bunch of cops saying it was illegal for black ppl to hang out together. Caused enormous resentment, especially in more heavily patrolled areas like Crown Heights, Flatbush, etc. You're not gonna see pro-cop politics make sways into the Black community until the old guard leaves, which is never.
Looting happened because everyone knew cops were out patrolling the marches. You'd be a fool not to go pick up free designer clothing that was headed to the trash heap anyways (it was all Spring Season stuff).
The cops tried this year to make it into a salient issue. Literally only worked where cops live (South Brooklyn. Staten, Lawn Guy Land). And still, they couldn't flip a single seat in the Assembly or the Senate. Pathetic. If it didn't work this time, why would it work next year?

[SWE]

Yeah Cuomo's on his third term, I don't think it'd be that hard for him to win again

[Suburbia]

The former has higher baseline Republican support, but the latter is swinging R more, at least nationally. Not sure if the dynamic with Chinese + Koreans + Filipinos vs Indians + Bangladeshis is different in NYC.

It is. Recent Chinese immigrants are trending R, Koreans, Fillipinos, Indians, and Bangladeshis aren't. Peter Liang was a big catalyst here.

Like lfromnj said, I don’t think any “law and order” Republican could win NYC unless violent crime rises enough to make black voters vote more R. This clip of a black veteran yelling at white (potential?) looters illustrates what I’m getting at.

This is a staged video bro. I actually live here and know the reality of the situation. Being against "crime" here is pretty well divorced from being pro cop. NYPD's enforcement of social distancing basically was a bunch of cops saying it was illegal for black ppl to hang out together. Caused enormous resentment, especially in more heavily patrolled areas like Crown Heights, Flatbush, etc. You're not gonna see pro-cop politics make sways into the Black community until the old guard leaves, which is never.
Looting happened because everyone knew cops were out patrolling the marches. You'd be a fool not to go pick up free designer clothing that was headed to the trash heap anyways (it was all Spring Season stuff).
The cops tried this year to make it into a salient issue. Literally only worked where cops live (South Brooklyn. Staten, Lawn Guy Land). And still, they couldn't flip a single seat in the Assembly or the Senate. Pathetic. If it didn't work this time, why would it work next year?

Monica Martinez lost to pro cop Alexis Weik, who will be on a presidential ticket one day. So, the cops made NY competitive, which is good. One party states are not good. The cops are not going anywhere, 2021, 2022, they could flip Nassau and Suffolk back to red Republican. Long Island is a swing region.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Would that Republican have to appeal to Black voters or should they ignore Black voters since the GOP and Black Lives Matter can't get along?

I think they would end up getting a large chunk of the black vote anyway. If I had to guess, there would be some anti-BLM pushback among a large chunk of black voters by that point.

The former has higher baseline Republican support, but the latter is swinging R more, at least nationally. Not sure if the dynamic with Chinese + Koreans + Filipinos vs Indians + Bangladeshis is different in NYC.

It is. Recent Chinese immigrants are trending R, Koreans, Fillipinos, Indians, and Bangladeshis aren't. Peter Liang was a big catalyst here.

Sigh. I really hope 45's overperformance among Queens Asians was mostly due to fake news circulating on WeChat and Whatsapp, and not Flushing Chinese genuinely shifting to the right.

As part of a national exit poll project that AALDEF has conducted on Election Day since 1988, the advocacy non-profit sent surveyors to 18 polling sites in Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens to speak to in-person voters.

In Queens, voters surveyed expressed a slightly higher preference for President Donald Trump, with 31% of voters choosing the incumbent compared to 66% for Biden. In Brooklyn, the gap was highest for Biden, with 80% of votes for him compared to 18% for Trump. In Manhattan, 72% said they voted for Biden with 25% choosing Trump.

[warandwar]

That's a pretty clear class line there - Brooklyn's Chinatown in Sunset Park is the poorest, Flushong is the richest.