Change Research - Kelly +9, Peters +7, Cunningham +10 (AZ, MI, NC)
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  Change Research - Kelly +9, Peters +7, Cunningham +10 (AZ, MI, NC)
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Author Topic: Change Research - Kelly +9, Peters +7, Cunningham +10 (AZ, MI, NC)  (Read 2015 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: July 01, 2020, 05:11:32 AM »
« edited: July 01, 2020, 05:19:20 AM by VARepublican »

June 26-28

Kelly 53%
McSally 44%
Undecided 3%

Peters 49%
James 42%
Undecided 9%

Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%
Undecided 18%

https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-8
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 05:17:25 AM »

Quote
Peters 49%
James 42%

Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%

Huh?

(High quality posting, I know). 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 05:22:38 AM »

LOL Change.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 05:28:35 AM »

The naysayers cant say nothing about Cunningham reelection prospects
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 05:36:29 AM »

NC giving it 110% I see
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 05:39:00 AM »

MT and NC Gov races are gonna be competetive that's why Bullock and Cunningham can win despite MT Rs lean at Prez race
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2020, 06:22:54 AM »

Estimated sample sizes for swing states based on percentage of the full battleground sample they constitute. The MoE for the full battleground sample of 3739 likely voters is 1.6%.

AZ: 298 likely voters
Kelly 53%
McSally 44%
Undecided 3%
Would not vote 0%

MI: 559 likely voters
Peters 49%
James 42%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 2%

NC: 597 likely voters
Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 1%
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WD
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2020, 09:29:01 AM »

NC poll numbers are all over the place, a poll yesterday had Cunningham at 41%, now hes at 51% wth
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kph14
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2020, 10:52:35 AM »

Estimated sample sizes for swing states based on percentage of the full battleground sample they constitute. The MoE for the full battleground sample of 3739 likely voters is 1.6%.

AZ: 298 likely voters
Kelly 53%
McSally 44%
Undecided 3%
Would not vote 0%

MI: 559 likely voters
Peters 49%
James 42%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 2%

NC: 597 likely voters
Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 1%

Those are very small sample sizes for statewide races
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2020, 09:51:30 PM »

Quote
Peters 49%
James 42%

Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%

Huh?

(High quality posting, I know). 

Yeah Change's numbers always seem super weird.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #10 on: July 01, 2020, 09:52:13 PM »

Estimated sample sizes for swing states based on percentage of the full battleground sample they constitute. The MoE for the full battleground sample of 3739 likely voters is 1.6%.

AZ: 298 likely voters
Kelly 53%
McSally 44%
Undecided 3%
Would not vote 0%

MI: 559 likely voters
Peters 49%
James 42%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 2%

NC: 597 likely voters
Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 1%

Those are very small sample sizes for statewide races

Especially Arizona
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2020, 07:01:40 AM »

Registered voters, wrong sample v LV
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SN2903
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« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2020, 09:51:14 PM »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2020, 10:08:42 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2020, 10:12:12 PM by South Dakota Democrat »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 10:57:55 PM »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

How have you arrived at this conclusion?
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 11:57:33 PM »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

How have you arrived at this conclusion?

Conclusion is too big of a word for him to understand.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #16 on: July 03, 2020, 07:26:10 AM »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.

1. He trolls a lot, repeatedly
2. Trolling gets reported
3. He gets warned
4. He doesn't change, at least not for long
5. He gets banned
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: July 03, 2020, 08:07:26 AM »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.

1. He trolls a lot, repeatedly
2. Trolling gets reported
3. He gets warned
4. He doesn't change, at least not for long
5. He gets banned


So someone will PM you to say "stop trolling"? I've been here since the 2008 primaries and have like 18 moderated posts. Never has anyone told me that they are seriously considering banning or anything like a "talk behind the shed". Of course people have ignored me and usually I'm busy and contribute between the level of CB and an average poster. I have my moments, though but generally I just come here for the news (as I am pretty close to the ideological center of this site though maybe its a pinch more clerical and socialistic than I would like at times).
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #18 on: July 03, 2020, 08:39:53 AM »

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 
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Person Man
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« Reply #19 on: July 03, 2020, 09:39:38 AM »

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 

None of these Republican candidates will win unless Trump wins. Not all of them will win unless Trump brings the House with him.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: July 03, 2020, 12:12:16 PM »

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 

Do you think Ducey appointed McSally to the seat to intentionally weaken her so that he could run for the seat in 2022?
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2020, 01:55:13 PM »

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 

Do you think Ducey appointed McSally to the seat to intentionally weaken her so that he could run for the seat in 2022?

That would be a really dumb move on his part, so there's a chance
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #22 on: July 03, 2020, 08:30:48 PM »

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 

Do you think Ducey appointed McSally to the seat to intentionally weaken her so that he could run for the seat in 2022?

That would be a really dumb move on his part, so there's a chance

And now, with his disastrous handling of the coronavirus pandemic, Ducey may have a tough hill to climb against Kelly in 2022, assuming that he does decide to run for the seat.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #23 on: July 05, 2020, 07:59:34 AM »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.

So you want someone banned for expressing the opinion that Peters and Biden will both lose in Michigan?
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #24 on: July 05, 2020, 11:16:55 AM »

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.

So you want someone banned for expressing the opinion that Peters and Biden will both lose in Michigan?

More for being annoying/trolling.
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