OK Medicaid Expansion

[walleye26]

With 99% in, it appears Oklahoma will expand Medicaid. About 6,300 votes more for “yes” than no out of nearly 700,000.

[libertpaulian]

Good news for Missouri in August. 

[jamestroll]

Already say Oklahoma County voted 63% in favor for this and made the different in the state.

I did not look at all the county results yet but.. let me guess.. another urban rural divide?

[walleye26]

With all precincts reporting: 339,799 yes, 333,331 no.
Yes won in only 7 counties: Cherokee 56/43, Cleveland 58/42, Comanche 57/43, Oklahoma 63/37, Payne 57/43, Pontotoc 53/47, and Tulsa 60/40.

[Oryxslayer]

Already say Oklahoma County voted 63% in favor for this and made the different in the state.

I did not look at all the county results yet but.. let me guess.. another urban rural divide?

Mostly, but there are hints of Oklahoma's old East-West divide. We also see some divisions among the normally lockstep GOP suburbs; for example the difference between Okmulgee and Canadian.

[ajc0918]

Great news for Oklahoma residents!

[Mexican Wolf]

Already say Oklahoma County voted 63% in favor for this and made the different in the state.

I did not look at all the county results yet but.. let me guess.. another urban rural divide?

"Yes" won a majority in seven counties:

Cherokee
Cleveland
Comanche
Oklahoma
Payne
Pontonoc
Tulsa

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1278179246490279936?s=20

Precinct Map!

[progressive85]

FREEDOM STATE!  Yay!!!!

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1278179246490279936?s=20

Precinct Map!

And the state's rural counties can thank the voters in cities like Tulsa, OKC, & Norman for looking out for them better than the Republican legislature ever has.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc. 

[QAnonKelly]

Awesome!

[PSOL]

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc. 

Well, they should look out for the white working class, but realize that Rural and religious voters are fools gold.

[cp]

What are the prospects for the general? With such a narrow margin just to get it on the ballot, there's an argument that it might be in trouble, no?

[Anna Komnene]

What are the prospects for the general? With such a narrow margin just to get it on the ballot, there's an argument that it might be in trouble, no?

This was it. In Oklahoma when an initiative or referendum qualifies for the ballot, the governor can call a special election or put it on the ballot on the next primary or general election. It passed!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc.  

Well, they should look out for the white working class, but realize that Rural and religious voters are fools gold.

*Rural voters in the solid south.

That's still a significant number of them willing to get behind this who wouldn't get behind any ordinary Democratic bid.

[Person Man]

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc.  

Well, they should look out for the white working class, but realize that Rural and religious voters are fools gold.

*Rural voters in the solid south.

That's still a significant number of them willing to get behind this who wouldn't get behind any ordinary Democratic bid.

I think they can and even do well with moderately religious or suburban WWCs. If you counted out Fundamentalist Catholics and Evangelicals, they can probably get close or win WWCs.

[Adam Griffin]

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc.  

Well, they should look out for the white working class, but realize that Rural and religious voters are fools gold.

*Rural voters in the solid south.

That's still a significant number of them willing to get behind this who wouldn't get behind any ordinary Democratic bid.

Yeah, let's point out that in comparison to the 2018 gubernatorial election (where the Democrat lost by 12), the "No" counties actually delivered a greater overperformance for Medicaid expansion than the "Yes" counties and ultimately decided the outcome. That doesn't even get into how much more these counties preferred Medicaid expansion over federal DEM/GOP candidates.

I ran some quick numbers, first adjusting the turnout variance from the 2018 gubernatorial to match the 2020 Medicaid vote (the latter had 57% of the votes that the '18 GE had).

Simplifying/harmonizing the figures, Edmondson would have lost by just north of 80,000 votes among this turnout with a 12-point margin. Ultimately, the harmonized difference between '18 GE and '20 Medicare was approximately 84,000 net votes (-81,000 for Edmondson; +3,000 for Medicaid).

Yet harmonizing the '20 Yes margins to the '18 GE margins in all of the "Yes" counties, we only get a gain of around 34,000 votes: approximately 41% of the statewide improvement - yet these counties were 49% of Oklahoma's '20 primary electorate!

In short: the "No" counties comprised 51% of the state's population but were responsible for 59% of the harmonized margin improvement between Edmondson's '18 performance and the '20 Medicaid vote.

People on Twitter and here alike seem to fundamentally forget just how Republican most of Oklahoma is, opting to view a county that voted "No" and saying "RUBES!". Yet had these counties voted anywhere nearly how they did in the 2018 gubernatorial election - let alone how they vote in presidential elections - this measure would have resoundingly failed no matter how many rich white suburbanites you flipped in OKC or Tulsa. I'm not going to bother to crunch the numbers, but I'd have a hard time believing that (net) no fewer than 1 in 10 "No County"/Stitt voters supported Medicaid expansion, and probably more like 1 in 5 "No County"/Trump voters.

[Adam Griffin]

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc.  

Well, they should look out for the white working class, but realize that Rural and religious voters are fools gold.

*Rural voters in the solid south.

That's still a significant number of them willing to get behind this who wouldn't get behind any ordinary Democratic bid.

I think they can and even do well with moderately religious or suburban WWCs. If you counted out Fundamentalist Catholics and Evangelicals, they can probably get close or win WWCs.

It's been 12 years and a lot of turnover since (for sure), but it's worth remembering that Barack Obama won West Virginians making less than $50,000 per year despite losing the state by 13 points. In many of these types of places, who votes and who lives there look fundamentally different. Obviously under no interpretation would a state like OK vote Democratic with an electorate matching its population, but it is worth remembering that in many rural, majority-white areas, the voters are astoundingly older, wealthier and more conservative than the populations themselves.

[DINGO Joe]

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc.  

Well, they should look out for the white working class, but realize that Rural and religious voters are fools gold.

*Rural voters in the solid south.

That's still a significant number of them willing to get behind this who wouldn't get behind any ordinary Democratic bid.

i dunno, at this point, I think the rurals would vote against electrification

[walleye26]

Assuming trends continue as they are (they won’t, but for sake of argument) this could provide a nice roadmap for Democratic wins in this state by like 2034. The Oklahoma County margin was ridiculously high, but something that the Dems could possibly get.

[Storr]

The precinct map made me wonder, if the 5th was Oklahoma County + Norman, would that be a D leaning district?

[Oryxslayer]

The precinct map made me wonder, if the 5th was Oklahoma County + Norman, would that be a D leaning district?

Well, first off the two counties would produce a very overpopulated district. If you cut out all the reddest turf in the two as you drop down to a district with pop equity, than it is possible to get a tossup seat using 2016 margins. Given what happened in 2018, such a seat would be well on its way to a blue future.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

The precinct map made me wonder, if the 5th was Oklahoma County + Norman, would that be a D leaning district?

OK county is too big to add norman.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.