IN05 - Hale (D) Internal: Biden+10

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1277950774652424193

[libertpaulian]

If the suburban realignment is continuing even in conservative suburbs near Indy, I wonder how the WOW counties are looking.

[CellarDoor]

If the suburban realignment is continuing even in conservative suburbs near Indy, I wonder how the WOW counties are looking.

Didn't one of the recent Wisconsin polls show Biden pretty close in WOW?

[wbrocks67]

Damn, Biden leading 10% in a district Trump won by 12%?

Maybe that NYT poll was right after all.

[wbrocks67]

Wow, Brooks (R) won by 14% in 2018. A Dem winning here would be huge.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

2018 numbers for reference:

Indiana 5th Congressional District

PVI: R+9

Susan Brooks - 180,035 - 56.76%
Dee Thornton - 137,142 - 43.24%

Margin of victory:  R+13.52

[wbrocks67]

Did Donnelly win IN-05 in 2018?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Did Donnelly win IN-05 in 2018?

Yup! JUST barely, though (~0.5%). 

[wbrocks67]

Damn, so Biden winning by 10% there would put him close to winning statewide.

[Devils30]

Biden is probably also leading in OH-1, OH-12, MO-2, AZ-6 if this poll is remotely true.

[Buzz]

Seems unlikely

[Landslide Lyndon]

Damn, so Biden winning by 10% there would put him close to winning statewide.

Not necessarily, the rural districts are probably still implacably Trump.

[ON Progressive]

Damn, so Biden winning by 10% there would put him close to winning statewide.

Not necessarily, the rural districts are probably still implacably Trump.

But you’re talking about a scenario in which Biden does 9.5 points better here than Donnelly, and he lost by 6 statewide, and it isn’t as if Donnelly did all that well in rural Indiana himself.

I’d still think Trump would be favoured in Indiana if this was right, but it would definitely be close.

[Brittain33]

This seems excessive. Not buying it.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Did Donnelly win IN-05 in 2018?

Yup! JUST barely, though (~0.5%). 

Any idea if he won it in 2012, and by how much?

[wbrocks67]

This seems excessive. Not buying it.

The suburbs are moving left at a faster-than-light pace.

[SnowLabrador]

Either this internal is even more biased than most internals are, or the suburbs really are zooming leftward nationwide, even in conservative Indiana.

[Alben Barkley]

Either this internal is even more biased than most internals are, or the suburbs really are zooming leftward nationwide, even in conservative Indiana.

I'm not sure why that would surprise anyone anymore.

[libertpaulian]

I wonder how Biden is doing in IN-02 (South Bend+Elkhart+rural counties) and IN-09 (Indy's south suburbs/exurbs+Bloomington+Louisville suburbs/exurbs).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I mentioned this a few months back: Of all the early returns we see on election night, pay the most attention to Hamilton County, IN. If Trump is performing significantly worse than in 2016, he will probably lose.

[TexasDemocrat]

Sorry if this is a dumb question but I'm new to the site - Why does this site use blue for Republicans and red for Democrats?

[pbrower2a]

Between Districts 1 (Hell and Hammond), 2 (South Bend, Elkhart), 5 (Anderson, Carmel, Noblesville) and 7 (Indianapolis) I could see the Indiana delegation to the US Senate splitting 4D and 5R.  after this election.

[iceman]

If a DEM would win this district in November, most likely she will only serve one term as the GOP would surely shut her out in the redistricting.

[iceman]

Between Districts 1 (Hell and Hammond), 2 (South Bend, Elkhart), 5 (Anderson, Carmel, Noblesville) and 7 (Indianapolis) I could see the Indiana delegation to the US Senate splitting 4D and 5R.  after this election.

nah, highly unlikely.

[Bojack Horseman]

Sorry if this is a dumb question but I'm new to the site - Why does this site use blue for Republicans and red for Democrats?

Because the site was started in 1994 and back then most networks were using red for Democrats and blue for Republicans. Dozens of elections later, it would be far too time-consuming to change everything.