MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal) (user search)
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  MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal) (search mode)
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Author Topic: MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal)  (Read 6714 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
« on: June 30, 2020, 03:34:37 PM »
Missourians feel a loss of pride from no longer being a bellwether.

I expect a poll showing Trump up by 1 in Delaware sometime soon.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
« Reply #1 on: June 30, 2020, 04:14:42 PM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on June 30, 2020, 04:00:24 PM
If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

If anything, if Missouri is close, Iowa is gone for Trump.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
« Reply #2 on: June 30, 2020, 04:30:52 PM »
Betting markets are taking this poll seriously (or are overreacting to it). Trump-MO was at 85 cents on PredictIt, now down to 80 cents.

Trump-Indiana also fell 5 cents after the IN-05 poll that showed Biden +10. Both states are now being seen as legitimately in play, which I would need a whole lot more polling data to accept.
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Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 07:53:11 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on June 30, 2020, 09:13:37 PM
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on June 30, 2020, 04:14:42 PM
Quote from: pbrower2a on June 30, 2020, 04:00:24 PM
If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

If anything, if Missouri is close, Iowa is gone for Trump.

Obvious. Iowa is a must-win for Trump, but not a must-win for Biden. Take Hillary Clinton's wins, and if Biden wins Michigan (Michigan looks gone for Trump) and Pennsylvania, then Iowa is the smallest state in electoral votes that reasonably has any chance of deciding the election for Biden, at least based upon the state's recent history. Sure, a state with three electoral votes such as Montana, Alaska, or either Dakota would defeat Trump -- but only one of those states has voted for a Democratic nominee for President after 1964. The two often wayward second Congressional districts would also put Biden at 270 if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania with Trump flipping nothing toward him... but that is a 'low-likelihood' event.

Missouri used to vote Democratic except in Republican blowouts. That is over.       

The last time Missouri was to the left of the tipping point was 1992. Changing demographics, the upland South and Mississippi Valley realigning, yadda yadda.
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