MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal)

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/insidepolling1/status/1277944223069691904

This is a Galloway (D) internal poll.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

[ON Progressive]

Not sure about that one chief.

[libertpaulian]

Yet Galloway is down 7?!

Usually downballots outperform the upballots.  Are they sure they didn't mix those races up?

[Podgy the Bear]

Are we going to trash this poll like the Hendrix College in AR a couple of weeks ago?  I guess we will.

But it warrants looking into...

[Alben Barkley]

Hahahahahaha

Even if it's not accurate, even if it's 10 points off, this is terrible for Trump.

Yet Galloway is down 7?!

Usually downballots outperform the upballots.  Are they sure they didn't mix those races up?

There's nothing "usual" about Trump. I don't find it at all hard to believe he'd be underperforming a state's governor, especially now.

[Buzz]

Worse than garbage, whoever ran this poll needs fired immediately.  Clown show

[CellarDoor]

Not sure about that one chief.

Agreed, and I think this might be a Dem internal.  Nevertheless, I believe it's worth posting all of the polls.

Garin-Hart-Yang has a B/C rating on FiveThirtyEight.  That's in line or better than some of the other low-quality polls we've seen over the last couple of days.  If we are going to take this one with a grain of salt, we should do the same with the others.

[Hope For A New Era]

lol no

[pppolitics]

Sorry, but I don't believe this one

[Granite City]

Well, it does fit with the world of Arkansas being Trump +2 but that is about it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Even if it's 15 points off its still bad news for Trump.

[Alben Barkley]

We've already had MO polls showing Trump with pretty pathetic single digit leads in MO. Even if this one's a total outlier, you'd expect one to show Biden in the lead at some point if Trump really is only up by single digits.

[wbrocks67]

We've already had MO polls showing Trump with pretty pathetic single digit leads in MO. Even if this one's a total outlier, you'd expect one to show Biden in the lead at some point if Trump really is only up by single digits.

Yeah, I mean this would be HUGE, but I don't think people realize how badly Trump could be doing in these states when he's potentially down double digits nationwide

[CellarDoor]

We've already had MO polls showing Trump with pretty pathetic single digit leads in MO. Even if this one's a total outlier, you'd expect one to show Biden in the lead at some point if Trump really is only up by single digits.

Agreed.  I don't think anyone expects Biden to win MO, but it shouldn't shock us to see polls move significantly in Biden's direction given the national environment.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure about that one chief.

Agreed, and I think this might be a Dem internal.  Nevertheless, I believe it's worth posting all of the polls.

Garin-Hart-Yang has a B/C rating on FiveThirtyEight.  That's in line or better than some of the other low-quality polls we've seen over the last couple of days.  If we are going to take this one with a grain of salt, we should do the same with the others.

It is indeed an internal for the Galloway campaign.

[CellarDoor]

Not sure about that one chief.

Agreed, and I think this might be a Dem internal.  Nevertheless, I believe it's worth posting all of the polls.

Garin-Hart-Yang has a B/C rating on FiveThirtyEight.  That's in line or better than some of the other low-quality polls we've seen over the last couple of days.  If we are going to take this one with a grain of salt, we should do the same with the others.

It is indeed an internal for the Galloway campaign.

Thank you for the confirmation.  I've updated the thread title.

[wbrocks67]

Also, if this is a Galloway internal, they would have no reason to make up rosier scenarios for Biden if Galloway herself couldn't get above -7 in her own poll?

[wbrocks67]

Also, even if this poll is 10% off, and Trump's lead is, say 8%, that's still off 11% from his 2016 win. So whether this poll is largely off still shows he's cratering, even in states that he won bigly in 2016

[pbrower2a]

I have my bias on insider polls: I believe them if they give bad news to the client and otherwise demand outside corroboration if they are favorable to the client. 

[jamestroll]

Please do not add this to database!

[pbrower2a]

[https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbowjLNXQAAqA3v?format=jpg&name=360x360][/img]

One possible, graphic explanation. COVID-19 is hitting Missouri hard.

When it comes to heat, Kansas City is much like Dallas in the summer, and St. Louis is much like Jackson, Mississippi. Missouri is, on the whole, brutally hot in the summer. It has a fire-and-ice climate as few other places in the world except for places of similar latitude west of the Appalachians (I can't praise the climatic zone that includes Peoria, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh, thank you).

[Person Man]

Maybe Trump only does as well as W here?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 3.5%

It might be junk, but I feel vindicated in asserting MO is likely R (at least, more competitive right now than SC-PRES, KS-PRES, UT-PRES and MS-PRES).

[wbrocks67]

Considering we've now seen polls from IN-05 where it went from Trump +12 to Biden +10 and in TX-06 where it went from Trump +10 to tied, I don't see how a poll with a close race in MO is really *that* hard to believe right now.